Another Wave Of Grim News

Here are a few headline news reports of interest from the past week that I didn't have time to get to.

Bloomberg reports that Jobless Rolls Climb to 25-Year High:

The number of U.S. workers receiving unemployment benefits climbed to 3.9 million in the week ended Nov. 1, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Commerce Department figures showed that U.S. imports dropped by the most on record in September, and exports also slid as demand for American-made aircraft and computers declined.

First-time claims for jobless benefits increased by 32,000 to 516,000 in the week ended Nov. 8, from 484,000 the week before, the Labor Department said. The median estimate of 40 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a reading of 480,000, compared with the originally reported 481,000 in the prior week.

Payroll losses at companies from Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Ford Motor Co. and Circuit City Stores Inc., the consumer electronics chain that went bust this week, mean unemployment claims will probably rise further.


Bloomberg reports that
U.S. Treasuries Gain as Retail Sales Plunge by Most on Record:

Treasuries rose, led by longer-term securities, as a report showed U.S. retail sales fell the most on record in October, driving investors to the relative safety of government debt.

The rally in longer-term securities amid concern that a deepening slump will further erode corporate earnings narrowed the yield difference between two- and 10-year notes from a five- year high. Freddie Mac asked the Treasury for $13.8 billion to keep its net worth above zero. The Group of 20 heads of state meet in Washington amid divisions over what steps to take to shore up the slowing global economy.

"The Treasury market is factoring in a very weak economy," said Gary Pollack, who helps oversee $12 billion as head of fixed-income trading at Deutsche Bank AG's Private Wealth Management unit in New York. "Given the economic outlook and with some supply behind us, we have some green lights for lower yields."

Sales at U.S. retailers dropped 2.8 percent last month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. It was the fourth consecutive drop and the biggest since records began in 1992.


The American Research Group, Inc reports that Shoppers Cut 2008 Christmas Spending Plans in Half from 2007:

Shoppers around the country say they are planning to spend an average of $431 for gifts this holiday season, down from $859 last year according to the twenty-third annual survey on holiday spending from the American Research Group, Inc. The overall average planned spending is down almost 50% from 2007 and it is the lowest level of planned spending recorded by the American Research Group since 1991.

While planned spending increases as Christmas approaches, a majority of shoppers are beginning the holiday shopping season saying they plan to cut their gift spending in half from a year ago. Shoppers saying they will pay full price for holiday gifts this year (14% of all shoppers) show the smallest decline in planned spending - $751 this year, down from $763 in 2007.

In telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,100 adults nationwide conducted November 10 through 13, 2008, the average planned spending of $431 for 2008 is down about 50% from planned spending in the 2007 survey.


Bloomberg reports that China Industrial-Output Growth Is Slowest in 7 Years:

China's industrial output grew at a slower pace than any economist forecast in October, stoking concern that the biggest contributor to global growth is running out of steam.

Production rose 8.2 percent from a year earlier, the smallest gain in seven years, the statistics bureau said today. None of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted such a small increase. Output grew 11.4 percent in September.

The slowdown may prompt the central bank to cut interest rates for the fourth time in two months to augment a $586 billion package of government spending on housing and infrastructure, announced on Nov. 9. China cut taxes on 28 percent of exports yesterday to sustain growth in the economy that accounted for a quarter of the global expansion in 2007.

``China's economy is losing momentum faster than expected: the central bank needs to act,'' said Tao Dong, chief Asia economist at Credit Suisse Group AG in Hong Kong. ``We hope this is the worst quarter and things start looking better next year because of the infrastructure plan.''

The one-year lending rate is 6.66 percent after three cuts totaling 81 basis points since September. China's third-quarter economic expansion of 9 percent was the weakest in five years.

The yuan traded at 6.8301 against the dollar as of 2:11 p.m. in Shanghai, unchanged from before the announcement. The CSI 300 Index of stocks rose 3.3 percent after the government detailed some spending, including power-plant construction.


Chuck from RebelTraders reports that US Postal Service to Layoff "Tens of Thousands"??

Today I spoke with a post office manager and asked him if the rumors on the Internet about big layoffs were true or not.

The conversation is paraphrased here:

Me: Are you guys hearing these rumors about big layoffs coming? And do you think there is any truth to them?
Post office manager: Yes, I think it is true
Me: Is there any talk of who, where or how many?
Post office manager: The word here is that junior members with less than 5 years of seniority will be let go.
Me: When
Post office manager: I think it will all happen after the Christmas holiday.
Me: Any idea how many people will be impacted?
Post office manager: The number being floated around here is in the many tens of thousands
Me: Will there be any post office closings?
Post office manager: They will have to. I think what they will do is consolidate in a major way all of the small rural offices.
Me: How is the mood in the post office?
Post office manager: Not too good. Everybody wants to hear something official and not just this unconfirmed speculation. These guys want to know if they will have a job after Christmas now and not be informed at the last minute.

So there you have it. This is
still speculation and a lot of rumors. But the word from ‘inside‘ the post office is that they believe the speculations will end up being true. Just like the postal employees, we have to wait and see if it turns out to be fact or not.


My reaction:
Yet another wave of grim news. If the market rallies next week like I expect, make sure you to use the opportunity to get out of any stocks you have left.

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0 Responses to Another Wave Of Grim News

  1. Anonymous says:

    Best deliver pink slips wearing a flak jacket.

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