Friday, November 14, 2008

Rally on Monday?

by Eric deCarbonnel

The selloff this week had nothing to do with the worsening economic news. After all, investors have been dismissing bad economic news for over a year now, why would they start caring now? No, the selloff had everything to do with hedge fund redemption requests.


As you can see from the chart above, the DOW crashed below 10,000 when hedge funds received their Q3 redemption requests. To get investors their cash, hedge funds began a round of forced selling sending the DOW all the way down under 8000. However, they didn't do all their selling in the beginning of October. Hedge funds have a month and a half to get their money back to investors after receiving redemption calls, and some funds held on to their stocks hoping for a rally. This explains the brutal selloff this last week as the Nov 15 deadline approached.

With the forced selling by hedge funds over for now, there is a strong probability of a relief/short covering rally next week. This will be the last opportunity to get out before the big crash.

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4 Comments:
fooser77 said...

Eric

Have seen this?

The G-20’s Secret Debt Solution?

Eric deCarbonnel said...

Interesting article, but it would never work because our creditors would never go along with it. If the US devalues the dollar like the article suggests, our creditors (China, India, etc) would be FURIOUS. They would immediately stop buying US treasuries and start selling them instead. Interest rates would soar to astronomical levels. The US government would not be able to fund itself and would have to start printing money. The dollar would lose nearly all its value in a matter of weeks. Our economy and financial system would disintegrate.

Let me make this perfectly clear: Soaring gold prices would destroy our currency and economy. Soaring gold prices are something our government has been desperately trying to prevent all year.

I can't believe the US would voluntarily trigger the collapse of the dollar and our economy. I don't think that even Paulson and Bernanke can be that stupid, but you never know.

fooser77 said...


I can't believe the US would voluntarily trigger the collapse of the dollar and our economy. I don't think that even Paulson and Bernanke can be that stupid, but you never know.

But Eric, the "endgame" is world govt, that requires a "world currency." How familiar are you with the 1988 Economist Get Ready for the Phoenix? Edelson speaks of a...

"A new fixed-rate currency regime.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) would implement the new financial system in conjunction with central banks and governments around the world."

Back to 1988 Economist

"The phoenix zone would impose tight constraints on national governments. There would be no such thing, for instance, as a national monetary policy. The world phoenix supply would be fixed by a new central bank, descended perhaps from the IMF."

Stupid maybe, but that doesn't means they would never attempt it. Our leaders, though mostly Machiavellian, do not always act out pragmatic. These guys, (elites) at their core are ideological. Dare I say religious...

Eric deCarbonnel said...

Things have to go horribly wrong before politicians get up the nerve to do something about problems. Take Lehman for example. The US allowed Lehman to fail because there wasn't the political will to save the firm. After the Lehman bankruptcy caused all kinds of problems in the financial market, THEN there was the political will to needed the save Lehman.

The same thing applies to world leaders at the G-20 conference. Things haven't gotten bad enough yet for them to take any drastic steps. In a month or so after the world economy disintegrates further, THEN world leaders might start taking drastic steps.

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