These ARE unprecedented times.


Here is a great blog entry by Chuck from Rebel Traders:

(emphasis mine)

It is getting very difficult to find new words to describe what has been unfolding in our nations economy over the past year. Each day brings more news about declining corporate earnings, economic conditions deteriorating, and a falling consumer confidence of record levels.

And with each bit of news that further points to a bleak economic outlook I find it difficult to find ways to describe it without sounding repetitious. Just how many times can I say “unprecedented” before it becomes ineffective, or it looses its strength? The dictionary defines unprecedented as follows…


—adjective
without previous instance; never before known or experienced; unexampled or unparalleled: an unprecedented event.

Roget' s Thesaurus gives some alternate words such as “abnormal“, “anomalous“, “extraordinary“, “remarkable“, and “unrivaled” as some other ways to describe unprecedented. But, there is simply no better word to describe what has happened over the past year. So with fear of sounding repetitious once again… we are witness to unprecedented events unfolding at an almost daily rate.

Lets recap:

  • The failure of Bear Stearns
  • The failure of Lehman Brothers
  • The disguised failures of the Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley by converting to bank holding companies
  • Largest bank failures in US history (Washington Mutual, IndyMac)
  • Other banks merging and/or failing
  • The failure of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and their subsequent nationalization
  • The failure of AIG (yes, it is a failure otherwise the Government would not have had to step in and become essentially an 80% owner of the company)
  • Record foreclosures on residential properties
  • Record losses among many US companies
  • Rapidly rising personal bankruptcy filings
  • US Government bail out funding of $700 Billion
  • Federal Reserve' s creation of numerous “lending facilities”
  • Record depletion of reserves among the US banks
  • Direct tax payer funds being injected into the banks balance sheets
  • $150 Billion Stimulus bill and more to come
  • Rapidly increasing layoffs
  • Rising number of retail stores filing chapter 11 and others going out of business
  • Numerous mortgage companies closed up operations
  • Collapse of the credit system
  • Drastic declines in US home prices
  • The collapse of the economic systems of Iceland
  • The increasingly likelihood of entire nations becoming insolvent (Hungary, Argentina, Ukraine, etc)
  • Numerous Federal Reserve emergency rate cuts. And now an effective funds rate of near zero
  • The near bankruptcy of the major auto manufacturers (General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler)

That is just what comes to mind without going back and looking through my many notebooks. And all of that happened within just the past year. Now you know why it is I use the word “unprecedented” so often. Because it is!

The bear market of 2000 - 2003 reduced the S&P; 500 index 47% from peak to trough. That bear market was pale in comparison to the problems that are unfolding currently. Back then it was driven by an over exuberance in the stocks of the Internet revolution (aka ‘tech boom' ). When many Internet and technology companies could not survive unemployment went up and the nation entered into a brief recession. There were no systemic risks to the US and global economies like we have now. There is simply no comparison between the previous bear markets of the past 70 years to the one we are in now.

Market analysts in the mainstream media like to keep saying that stocks are a great value currently. They keep trying to draw comparisons to the last bear market and how we are very close the percentage declines from that one. And that in itself they believe is reason enough to think it is a good time to scale back into the stock market for the long haul.

The professional Wall Street analysts have never changed their ways. During the bear market of 2000 - 2003 many analysts kept advising to ‘buy, buy, buy' as the market kept declining. And they were advising their clients to buy the very companies that were in the most in danger of going out of business… and many did.


You think the professional analysts who work for the major institutions (of those that are now still in business) have your best interest at heart? Well just go back to the last bear market and this news item…

From April 2003…
Wall Street Investment Firms Fined Historic $1.4 Billion in Settlement

In a settlement announced on Monday, April 28 2003, ten Wall Street Firms - Salomon Smith Barney, Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse First Boston, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Chase, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, US Bancorp Piper Jaffray, UBS Warburg (UBS Paine Webber) - will pay out at least $1.4 billion and will be required to accept business reforms. No firm or individual has admitted to having misrepresented information presented to investors. Internal emails were used as evidence that analysts had known the stocks were not represented accurately. In fact, while the stocks were being touted in public, they were being disparaged in private emails.

The settlement with its fines, payments, and reforms are geared towards increasing investor confidence. $387.5 million of this fund has been set aside to reimburse investors who were victims of stock broker fraud.

And some memorable quotes following that suit…

William Donaldson, Chairman of the SEC: “These cases reflect a sad chapter in the history of American business — a chapter in which those who reaped enormous benefits from the trust of investors profoundly betrayed that trust.”

Eliot Spitzer, New York State Attorney General, speaking about Salomon executives awareness of manipulating research to benefit investment banking business: The executives “fully grasped and understood the way research was being manipulated.” Reimbursement fund for “small investors lead astray…because of fraudulent research”.

John Markese, President of the American Association of Individual Investors: The settlement “brings home just how rotten this thing was.”

Dick Grasso, New York Stock Exchange chairman: “This historic settlement establishes a clear bright line — a banker is a banker and an analyst is an analyst. The two shall never cross.”

Today nothing has changed. The professional Wall Street firms always have, and always will, continue to look out for themselves and their ‘big money' interests, not yours.

The problems we face today have been greatly amplified by the greed of the very same Wall Street firms who recklessly sought to capitalize in every way possible in the credit and housing growth of the late 90' s and early 2000' s. Their creation of securities that were all tied right back to the mortgages of the average home owner was done without any regard for the dangers and perils of what they were doing. And in order to get even more mortgages to
‘play with' the mortgage industry loosened their lending standards so that more and more people could obtain a mortgage. All ingredients for a major disaster which we now have.

And now that these same firms are in serious financial turmoil and they are begging the Government (tax payers) to keep them alive. They want you and I to kiss their wounds and make it all better. Well you know my position on this.. I say “kiss off' . No more tax payer funds to keep companies that made bad decisions alive. We have become a nation of rewarding bad behavior with rescue packages, bail outs, and low interest loans. The companies that got in over their heads, and lost Billions, need to fix their own problems… or fail.

Now we have the automakers at the brink of collapse. The CEO' s of the largest automakers all went to Washington last week to cry and whine about how bad business is. Now you and I will be asked forced into bailing them out too.

You might be asking yourselves just where the hell are all of my tax dollars going when these companies get handed checks by the Government. Well your not alone, people have been trying to get data out of the Government to see just what they are doing.

From the Wall Street Journal:

November 7, 2008, 5:09 pm
Bloomberg News Sues the Fed

Bloomberg News is going to court to compel the Federal Reserve to disclose securities the central bank is accepting as collateral for its raft of new lending. The company is filing its suit based on the U.S. Freedom of Information Act.

Bloomberg says:

Bloomberg News on May 21 asked the Fed to provide data on the collateral posted between April 4 and May 20. The central bank said on June 19 that it needed until July 3 to search out the documents and determine whether it would make them public. Bloomberg never received a formal response that would enable it to file an appeal. On Oct. 25, Bloomberg filed another request and has yet to receive a reply.

The Fed staff planned to recommend that Bloomberg' s request be denied under an exemption protecting “confidential commercial information,” according to Alison Thro, the Fed' s FOIA Service Center senior counsel. The Fed in Washington has about 30 pages pertaining to the request, Thro said today before the filing of the suit. The bulk of the documents Bloomberg sought are at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which she said isn' t subject to the freedom of information law.


“This type of information is considered highly sensitive, and it would remain so for some time in the future,” Thro said.

The information is considered “highly sensitive”… Just a convenient way of hiding the facts from the people. There is only one way to end this problem. And it begins with the immediate disclosure of all assets and their mark to market values. Let the losses be realized in full. This way the strong will survive and the weak will die. Flush the system out in the open and then, and only then, can the problems be dealt with.

Right now the Government is trying to apply bubble gum to a dam that is springing numerous leaks. They need to open the emergency flood gates. By opening the flood gates it will likely destroy some innocent companies downstream, but it is easier to rebuild some as compared to rebuilding everything should the dam fail completely which is becoming increasingly likely with each passing day.

The S&P; 500 index is has declined 37.5% from peak to trough during this current bear market. Do you think that it is over and we are beginning a new multi year bull market? I have bad news for you… Take the 37.5% experienced so far and double that for starters. There will be the occasional ‘bear market rally' , but the long term picture remains very bleak.

These ARE unprecedented times…

My reaction: Reading this entry reminds me why I started this blog. After a year of "unprecedented" events, I got tired of hearing talking heads on the radio predicting market bottoms and new bull markets. There is only so much delusional optimism I can tolerate.

We are not near a market bottom or a new bull market. Those historical examples analysts love to talk about (ie: historically municipal bonds have had a low default rate) mean nothing In unprecedented times. Those "great valuation" you hear about are pipedreams based on optimistic earnings estimates. Finally, the nightmare scenario, a deflationary and dollar collapse, is the likeliest outcome at this point (if you know how we can avoid it without an act of god, I would love to hear it). So please, ignore the optimism oozing out of Wall Street and go buy some gold instead.

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24 Responses to These ARE unprecedented times.

  1. Anonymous says:

    As far as Bloomberg News serving the Fed with a FOIA request, it's not going to succeed. The Federal Reserve is a PRIVATE bank, not a government institution. It should be dissolved and the power to print and COIN money should be returned to its rightful owner, the Congress of the United States. There was no legal basis by which they forfeited their responsibilities to the Fed. Much of this disaster could have been avoided if we'd have had no super-rich bankers intertwined with our nation's purse strings.

  2. Raymond E. Bilger says:

    This story needs to be put on the front page of the New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, and every paper in this country, and it should be the top news story on CNN, CBS, NBC, ABC, FOX News, and explored in depth until the American people begin to understand that the foxes have been guarding our monetary system, and as a result, destroying our nation since 1913, when the Federal Reserve Act was unconstitutionally passed into law.

  3. Anonymous says:

    I have a new word to replace "unprecedented" - "manipulated." Please substitute throughout all your articles, including any to follow, and see where the dots can be connected.

    Cheers!

  4. Anonymous says:

    GOLD: I bought 25K of nemismatics on 9/24 and I'm concerned because of the following. This is an excerpt from Lame Cherry's blog posted on Nov 9th:
    http://lamecherry.blogspot.com/2008_11_09_archive.html

    "They" did this in Germany before Hitler arose to power in wiping out people's savings. The speculators did well in going into other currencies than the Mark or going into gold. This time though it seems a new game is afoot as Mr. Biancheri has stated Americans are not going to get an equal transfer of dollar for dollar, and it will not be inflation which they will wipe people out with as in the Carter years, but this time they will simply keep prices high, make a new full value dollar pegged to the Euro and leave Americans with nothing ruining them all.
    "They" have thought this out well, because if some clever person moves to gold with his 100,000 dollars, the new dollar will value that gold at 10,000 or a 90% drop which equals the 10% value of the dollar if you left it rot in the bank.

  5. Anonymous says:

    "No more tax payer funds to keep companies that made bad decisions alive."

    But you are not saying 'NO MORE TAX', and until you guys wake up to the whole system being systemic fraud, you have awoken to 'NOTHING'. The complete system needs to go, including economy, as is, and government. There is NO alternative... whatever you think. That's the destination and how long, and how bad, it takes to get there will be up to you getting past your preconceptions. I'm not holding my breath. Experts, Lawyers and Economists are increasingly looking like the fools they are.

  6. Anonymous says:

    All is as planned,and It has been planned long ago.
    how do you Bankrupt the richest nation in the world.

    60's 10 years of war take the gold backing away from the dollar
    70's Allow cheap imports into the country to undermine the soft under bally of your manufacturing base.
    80's out source and in source labour
    90'send your manufacturing base to
    India and China.Do not tax the products when the come from those countries.
    00's another war 10 years to drain the treasury
    2010 North American Union kiss good=bye the Constitution.
    these are only a synopsis .
    Recently I looking for information online for a video I was making.
    I can across the plans for a NEW UN head quarters in Montreal Canada.Looks like they are moving that too.
    the complete blowout of America is to make way for the coming North American Union.America is over there is nothing anyone can do.you have borrowed yourself in a cesspit ,your govt at all levels have borrowed themselves into a cesspit,the people on America have borrowed themselves into a cesspit,The baks have defrauded the world out of 57 Trillion dollars so far with another $130 trillion left to unfold.
    Ron Paul had the only solution and he was laughed at. Obama is your last President before the guilded age of Canadian money and resources.And Finally the Canadian Monetary unit will be unleashed to it's full potential some 3 or 4 times it's current value.
    or = to 7 American dollars.
    DO not fear Obama is bringing change, trust him,he has the authority to change your laws to the British system and revert you back into the fold.Of course there is always the third world system if you refuse,The Mexican gangs now roaming America will show you how to live in the third world if you Do not fancy the connected system.Your Canadian friends love you, come to the light and out of the dark side,Resistance is futile.

  7. Anonymous says:

    Americans have lived a life in a fairy land
    their history is all apologists
    their money monopoly money
    their culture make believe
    where are your big monuments to the future like the Pyramids.none
    why is your banking system ranked 29th in the world while Canada's banking system is ranked 1st place?
    Gangsters have run America since they butchered JFK along time ago.
    and Gangsters sooner or later screw it all up and get caught in their own web of lies.

    In 2009 all SS and SA checks will fail.
    and you will slide into Famine pestilence and crime.
    when 2010 comes around those that
    take a patriots stand will die for a country that was never ever theirs and never ever was free.
    the revolutionary war of 1776 was lost.the war of 1812 started by congress asserting that the constitution was god given and not god as in the Throne.
    the British marched on congress burnt it to the ground gutted the politicians and the army. then retreated to Canada your army came after them and they were slauters on the Canadian border by the Black watch with bagpipes blowing Amazing grace.
    your civil war started by a British Canadian armed force called the abolitionists riding into Harpers Ferry.
    which instigated the slaughter of your people .
    the war you fought was about States rights. The british said no to states rights and yes to the FED
    in 1863 the FED was reinstated.
    in 1863 Lincoln proclaimed
    "Corporations have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow" 1863 was the same year the FED was installed again in America.
    the American legal definition of USA is "not a nation a sovereign corporation".
    Those that fail to see their real history who are only taught the apologists views will always be entrapped in a fairyland.

    "Corporations have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow" Abraham Lincoln

    The FED and IRS are above American laws and as a result dictate to you
    what is real and what is not real.
    USA is a mere corporation they own you your body.
    the Constitution lost in the civil war States rights fell.
    it was not about slavery and the constitution was never the law it was only meant to serve to enslave you.
    for if it was the law there would not have been slaves past 1776
    the fed would never have existed
    etc...
    the Union stole the battle humm or the republic from a song called
    John browns body,and the theme of freedom was also stolen from the Canadian abolitionists.
    Education is your best hope to understanding your plight
    you will enter the North American Union. and most likely remain a corporation and the FED will most likely remain in some form you will not print money those days are over you are not a responsible enough people to be allowed to ever control money ever again.
    a failure as a nation.
    Racism still exists open violence in the streets still exists
    your destiny is sealed your fate is written in stone and your last hope was Ron Paul and you could not even get that right.
    David from Canada
    peace be with you good neighbor
    move to the light at the end of the tunnel.

  8. Anonymous says:

    My friends... You are living in "The Zion Empire of America". No more "The United States of America". Obama is dreaming when he says the United States of America. Now he is in their mix, he has to follow orders even if he does not like it. Don't blame him. This is reality. He will be a person with a lost mind and a roaming soul.

    The few thieves including the Israeli citizen Emanuel who are ruling this country in the background have taken over your souls and your land a long time ago. Typical Americans are only residents of this country. You Americans did it to yourselves. They have outsmarted you.

    These gangsters don't have any kind of loyalty to America or to any one in the world. The only thought that goes in their mind is revenge against humanity. They are going to take Trillions more and invest it somewhere else. They are going to bankrupt this country.

    I am glad that I am not an American. I feel sorry for the too generous American people who took these criminals as their guests to start with.

  9. Anonymous says:

    Regretfully, I am not able to comment upon the banking aspects of this historic meltdown, but I can refer readers to my profile at http://www.helium.com/user/show/89941 for the briefest sketch of how these plunderers operated in another arena - that of the collusion between Government and media. Their rape-for-profit of the national culture and individual lives went right past nearly everybody, but the films were taunts and depictions of your irrelevant preoccupations while - as others here are stating - the New World Order is methodically being set in place. It was my priviledge - as indicated in the profile - to throw something of an historic curve into their onward march.

  10. Artist says:

    Citizens of the U.S. The People have spoken and you have to do something to get by, why not set up a citizens bank under your State legislature and fund your government with interest from private sector loans,Its an idea who's time has come. Take back your power and have some fun. Check out the proposed 28th amendment by Eric WhoRu. It's simple enough for anyone to understand and promote, All the Best,John

  11. Thank you for all the interesting comments. I agree with most of them.

    Artist, I have some bad news for you. It is likely taxes are headed up not down. The largest peacetime tax increase happened during the last great depression (I believe it was around a 30% increase for highest bracket).

    So unfortunately, I don't think the proposed 28th Amendment which "eliminate taxation at all levels" has a chance.

  12. I would link to this great blog entry if it wasn't for the many idiotic self promoting comments.

    I recommend either disabling comments entirely or not allowing links.

    Really too bad, great article that many should read.

  13. Never mind, I'll link to the original article.

    Rense ought to link to the author instead of people who just copy.

  14. Franz says:

    True, way too true.

    PLEASE never leave out one fact:

    The part about SECRECY and double dealing becoming classified information was enshrined into US law in 1947.

    In that year we ceased to be the USA. We became the National Security State.

    What that means in simple terms is that our alleged leaders can lie, cheat, steal, then cover it all with a stamp that says TOP SECRET. And don't for a minute assume this only applies to government; corporations and even NGOs hide stuff that should be public information all the time.

    Warnings about the Cryptocracy came from all points on the political compass. The warnings were simple. If unchecked, our institutions, ALL of them, would become unaccountable. The line between public and private, at the upper levels, would vanish.

    The NSA was a tool the create this dictatorship here in the States. Foreigners should not be smug. Other countries have other tools, the result will be the same and it's been stated outright for years: the New World Order.

    It may be late. But despair is a sin in all traditions for a good reason: To overestimate the powers arrayed against us is to give them too potent a weapon.

    The New World Order is armed to the teeth already. Let's steel ourselves against fear and hopelessness and stop passing them any undeserved ammunition.

    They can be beaten. They only have power, which can be lost in an instant.

  15. Anonymous says:

    Canada is next folks, don't be so arrogant, you too are falling into Fascism, and soon will join the NWO, and your arrogance and self proclomation will be your downfall, for none are as blind as those who refuse to see..poor fools.

    good luck, your gonna need it. "Freedom Lost"

  16. I agree with you, Christine Baker, that Rense ought to link to the original author.

    Another article on Rence titled "3 Trends Push US To Econ, Dollar Collapse" is my own work, but it links to the market oracle instead of this site.

  17. Anonymous says:

    there is a stock market forum in australia called hot copper....it is a 'controlled' establishment forum. a story like this would see a poster either moderated, banned or flamed as a conspiracy theorist...

  18. Anonymous says:

    Judging by some of the comments here, I expect a coming boom in the Lithium market. I especially liked the Lincoln Conspiracy guy - that was just awesome.

  19. Anonymous says:

    Ah, how nice. Things go into the crapper and someone immediately blames the jews for it. It only takes a few good whacks before the bigots start showing their stripes. Why not blame the fools who took out loans they could not afford and could not pay back who started the whole ball rolling downhill? Oh, but that is right. They were just innocent victims of predatory lending because god forbid they actually read the contracts they were signing.

    The good news is, the damage is done. governments can try and save those industries on their deathbeds but while it may prolong things it won't work. This will sort out and it may take years but eventually this country will be better for it. But the pain is coming and I do agree anyone who things the days of rosier stock gains are coming back anytime soon has the head up their bum.

  20. RB says:

    #######
    #######

    You're all mostly clueless, as this
    financial dismantlement of the West
    - of America - is not by mis-
    management but BY DESIGN:

    Planned Destruction of America
    http://planneddestructionofamerica.blogspot.com/

    Of the many obvious clues, pointing
    to this planned destruction, it is
    Greenspan's public advice that
    home buyers take out an ARM (his
    statement was made in 2006) which
    is MOST INDICTING, as he had
    violated his Fed chairmanship
    duties in giving that advice, and
    which advice was made to INCREASE
    the growing distortions in sub-
    prime housing loans.

    Question: Why has there not been
    a class-action lawsuit against him
    and the Federal Reserve, as any-
    one taking his advice would have
    believed that he was providing IN-
    SIDER INFORMATION about which way
    interest rates were headed?

    #######
    #######

  21. Artist says:

    Eric deCarbonnel, The proposed 28th amendment has not been tried, if you think taxes need to be increased or will be increased then you are just playing the same game under the same old framework that has caused all the problems because of congressional decisions, all I am saying is that you could take charge at the State legislative level and decide on all your wonderful tax increases at that level, you are never going to get a handle on the problem with the same people in charge, come on, mix it up, take charge at the State level, have fun, Your State legislators are closer than those characters in DC, You just are cemented in the past and love to do what your told don't you Eric? Sincerely, John

  22. Anonymous says:

    It has come time to sit back, I with my wine, and watch our federal government disintegrate. It began with the bailout, and no one can save us now. This is destiny, and you are dreaming if you ever think economics will be the same. Face the music, and prepare yourself for a rollercoaster ride to hell.

  23. Josh says:

    I appreciate the Canadians' arguments, though they are flawed in many respects. I'm not going to waste my time pointing out errors. As one of those anonymous guys said, this arrogant attitude will be their downfall. So don't act so smug... you're next! Many of our problems are your problems too! Your government was never so perfect... just more sneaky, quiet and accepted perhaps. You're ruled by the same corporate beast that we are, and your end will follow ours. Our companies span international boundaries, and therefore, so do their problems. [It's interesting, as a personal note, that each company I've worked for professionally since college has closed its Canadian manufacturing plants in the last few months. Permanently. No more jobs. And there's more on the way!] So if the USA fails, watch out, Canada, because you're going down too (hopefully you folks live OFF the grid). And if your country doesn't fail, you're still not safe. A wave of jobless, homeless, penniless folks from the former USA will be jumping the border and looting every home they can find. Count on it. Surely you've heard of the "Golden Horde." They're coming! Better get armed.

    Sorry for the rant, but I don't think anyone with a brain should feel superior or safe with the potential magnitude of the global economic failure.

  24. Dennis says:

    The gold standard...not looking like such a "barbarous relic" anymore, is it? The only salvation will be a painful (for many) return to a monetary system based on gold and silver, with the critical proviso that fractional-reserve banking is outlawed---let me say it again, OUTLAWED. Investments must be made from savings only and the government, like everyone else, is not allowed to run deficits. This will restore an honest division of labor economy.

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