US Job Losses – Still Deteriorating

Rebel Traders provides a nice summary of today's ADP report:

US Job Losses - Still Deteriorating
Posted: November 5, 2008 at 8:25 am by Chuck

Oops… the economy is back on center stage with two bits of data released this morning, and both are bad.

OCTOBER ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -157K V -100KE, LOWEST READING SINCE NOV 2002
- No Revisions

- Total employment: -157k
- Small businesses: -25k **(First net decline in small business since Nov 2002)
- Medium businesses: -91K
- Large businesses: -41K
- Goods-producing sector: -126k
- Service-providing sector:-31k
Addendum:
- Manufacturing industry:-85k

- The estimated change in employment from August to September was revised down from a decrease of 8,000 to a decrease of 26,000.

My reaction: I believe we are past the slow and steady phase of the monthly drop in employment (9 months of less than 100,000 job losses), and that the downward spiral will intensify quickly now. All the recent economic data backs up this view, with this ADP report being the latest


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