*****China is mobilizing its dollar reserves!*****

China intends to start selling dollars! THIS IS HUGE! The dollar rally is DEAD.

China Daily reports that Chinese imports will get forex fund boost.

(emphasis mine) [my comment]

Imports to get forex fund boost
By Wang Xu (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-02-19 07:42

The government will use its abundant foreign exchange reserves to boost imports and domestic demand as part of its efforts to check the economic slowdown caused by the global financial crisis.

Addressing a press conference yesterday, Fang Shangpu, deputy director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), said the administration would introduce more measures to support Chinese firms to expand overseas, too.

But the government is determined to keep the yuan's rate "generally stable", another SAFE official said.

Fang's remarks confirm what Premier Wen Jiabao told the World Economic Forum in Davos last month - that
China could use its foreign exchange reserves to boost the domestic market.

As a step toward that,
the government will send a business delegation to four European countries later this month with purchase orders worth 15 billion yuan ($2.2 billion) for technologies, equipment and other goods. [They would send a delegation to the US too, if we had a manufacturing sector that is (small exaggeration).]

SAFE will encourage trade credit and cross-border financing, and take steps to match these actions with proper risk management, Fang said. A number of Chinese companies are already said to be pursuing major merger and acquisition deals overseas,
most noticeably in the raw materials sector. [China is snapping up the world's resources and military technology at firesale prices. It will probably emerge from this as the new superpower...]

Government spokespersons, including SAFE officials,
denied Internet reports that the yuan would be devalued at 6.95-7 against the US dollar. [They are focusing on domestic consumption. Devaluing the yuan would counteract that strategy.]

Keeping the yuan exchange rate at "a reasonable and balanced level" is conducive to not only China, but also many other economies, said Deng Xianhong, another SAFE deputy chief. "It will contribute to the fight against the global financial crisis, too."

The country has about
$1.95 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest [True number is around 2.3 trillion now]. And it has the lion's share of investment in low-risk, low-yield assets such as the US treasury bonds [which will make China a net seller of treasuries as it funds other uses of its reserves]

The government de-pegged the yuan from the US dollar in July 2005, after which the Chinese currency has risen about 20 percent against the greenback.

But since the country's economic growth dropped to a seven-year low of 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, there has been speculation that the yuan could be devalued to bolster exports.
[Unlikely, China is experiencing a drought and devaluing its currency would put even more upwards pressure on food prices.]

China Daily reports that China seeks "more active" use of forex reserves.< /span>

China seeks "more active" use of forex reserves
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2009-02-17 19:44

The power of China's huge foreign exchange reserves, which stand at nearly $2 trillion, might start to be felt more around the world as the country seeks to use those funds "more actively" as the global economic crisis grinds on, experts said.

"The government has sent clear signals," said Yin Jianfeng, deputy director of the Institute of Finance and Banking of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank.

He said
Beijing was likely to shift its strategy from passive to active reserve management, a change he said was especially urgent and an obvious response to the financial crisis.

Premier Wen Jiabao said in an interview with the Financial Times during the Davos forum that
the country was exploring more efficient ways to use its reserves to boost domestic development.

China's reserves hit a record $1.95 trillion at the end of 2008, the largest in the world and far exceeding those of Japan, the second-largest foreign exchange holder with $1.03 trillion.

To play it safe,
China's huge reserves have usually been invested in low-risk but low-yield assets, such as US government bonds.

According to the US Treasury, China held $681.9 billion worth of US government bonds as of November.

China should find new ways to use these funds more efficiently, get a higher return and support domestic development, said Yin.

The government has long sought to diversify the use of its reserves as part of a larger reform drive.

"We hope to use the money to buy equipment and technology, which are urgently needed for the country's development," Wen told the Financial Times.

Forex reserves must be spent on foreign trade and overseas investment, he said. [In order for China to spend its forex reserves, it will have to sell treasuries...]

GOOD POSITION

Massive reserves have put China in a good position to increase imports to meet domestic demand, said Yin, and this was very likely to be a major way to effectively use the money.

Imports fell for the four months ended in January, often faster than exports declined, as global trade shrank amid the economic and financial crisis. The reserves could be used to reverse that trend.

China's imports and foreign investment have been limited to date, to some extent, by restrictions imposed by other countries. However,
the crisis has prompted some nations with much-needed technology to ease those restrictions.

The United States and China signed an agreement on Jan 13 that allows US exporters to sell certain dual-use items to China without acquiring permission from the government. Dual-use refers to products that can have either civilian or military uses.

Wen also revealed during his trip to Europe last month that
China would send a delegation there to procure advanced equipment and technology.

BOOST TO WORLD

Importing more advanced equipment and technology would boost China's domestic investment and provide effective economic stimulus, said Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of China Galaxy Securities Co Ltd.

"China's increase of imports will surely contribute to the economy of the exporters and thus help the world economy recover," Zuo said.

She warned that it would be dangerous either to use
the reserves for budgeted spending or subsidies to boost consumer spending [China is doing both]. Either use could fuel inflation [likely] or a depreciation of the yuan [unlikely].

Zhao Xijun, deputy director of the Institute of Finance and Securities at Renmin University, said China had other choices. Apart from purchasing crucial technology, equipment and resources, it could also
make direct investments through commercial banks or support State-owned enterprises' overseas acquisitions [China is planning on doing both these also].

For example,
Aluminum Corp of China, or Chinalco, announced on Feb 12 it would invest $19.5 billion in mining giant Rio Tinto Group, bailing out the latter while securing for the state-owned Chinese company access to more resources. This deal would be by far the largest overseas investment by a Chinese company.

"To buy more strategic assets, energy and resources would also be a very important way to efficiently use the reserves. It would help preserve and enhance the value of the reserves," Zhao said. [Agreed]

NEW DESTINATIONS

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, has also said that
China should consider diversifying the destination of its reserves. [I have talked about this before. If China moves it massive reserves, the dollar will weaken against whatever it starts buying]

Speaking on the sidelines of an Asian central bankers' meeting earlier this month in Malaysia, Zhou asked:
"is it time for China to consider using the reserves somewhere else, instead of concentrating too much on the United States?" [Yes it is.]

That could be a hint that
China will shift the use of its reserves to put more into developing countries and emerging markets [This would weaken the dollar against those currencies]. These countries offer growth potential, richer resources and lower labor costs but they need funds for development, analysts said.

China Daily reports that China may use forex reserves to help oil firms.

China may use forex reserves to help oil firms
(Agencies)
Updated: 2009-02-17 10:53


This file photo shows a crude oil wharf in Hainan province. China is considering using part of its huge foreign exchange reserves to help State oil companies explore for overseas resources, a report said on Tuesday. [CFP]

China is considering using part of its huge foreign exchange reserves to help State oil companies explore for overseas resources, the Shanghai-based National Business Daily reported on Tuesday.

The newspaper said the national energy working conference, which closed earlier this month, had discussed the proposal.

According to the proposal,
the government would use a slice of China's $1.95 trillion in foreign exchange reserves to set up a special fund to finance offshore oil exploration. [Not good for treasuries or the dollar]

China's foreign exchange holdings are heavily invested in dollar-denominated assets
, and Chinese researchers and officials are calling for a more diversified use of the reserves that are the world's largest.

Fan Wenzhong, a State-owned assets supervision official in Chongqing city, said in an interview with the Shanghai Securities News on Monday that
the government should use its reserves to set up a $200 billion overseas industrial fund and a $100 billion "social development" fund.

AFP reports that China sets out on spending spree in Europe.

China sets out on spending spree in Europe: govt
5 hours ago

BEIJING (AFP) — Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming left for Europe Tuesday at the head of a 300-strong team charged with spending billions of dollars on European products, the government and state media said. [I highlighted this trip in my earlier entry on Premier Wen's "trip of Confidence" to Europe]

The procurement team, which will visit Spain, Germany, Switzerland and Britain, could end up spending 15 billion yuan (2.2 billion dollars) or "considerably" more, the China Daily reported.

"The Chinese government's organisation of the trade and investment mission to Europe comes as the worl d economy is facing recession due to the international financial crisis," said Gao Hucheng, a vice commerce minister.

"It shows China's determination to open up its market and push for the revival of the world economy by strengthening cooperation with other countries in the world," he said in a statement on the ministry's website. [It also shows China's desire to use its abundant foreign exchange reserves to boost domestic economic growth.]

Officials from industry associations in the sectors of food [China is experiencing a history drought], textile, mining [China is gobbling up the world's natural resources] and health insurance [China is expanding its domestic health coverage to boost consumption] were part of the delegation, the statement said.

Commerce ministry spokesman Yao Jian said last week that the delegation would mainly buy technology and equipment.

Xinhua news agency said the delegation would be made up of about 300 officials and business people.

The China Daily cited Yao as saying that the country's demand for European goods was growing as a result of the roll-out of a four-trillion-yuan economic stimulus package that includes huge infrastructure projects. [Good for Europe, not so much for US]

"Europe has an obvious edge [over the US] in providing us with the equipment we need," he said, according to the paper. [Europe, especially Germany and Switzerland, is much stronger in engineering then the US. (In the US, we focus more on finance and business) ]

My reaction: China is mobilizing its dollar reserves! The power of China's huge foreign exchange reserves, which stand at over $2 trillion, will be felt around the world as the country seeks to use those funds "more actively". This is VERY bearish for the dollar and treasuries.

1) The government will use its abundant foreign exchange reserves to boost imports and domestic demand as part of its efforts to boost its economy.

2) The country has over 2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest.

3) The lion's share of Chinese reserves are invested in low-risk, low-yield assets such as the US treasury bonds. These assets will likely suffer because of China's plans to mobilize its reserves.

4) The government has sent clear signals that it is shifting its strategy from passive to active reserve management and exploring more efficient ways to use its reserves to boost domestic development.

5) Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, has said:

"To buy more strategic assets, energy and resources would also be a very important way to efficiently use the reserves. It would help preserve and enhance the value of the reserves,"

"China should consider diversifying the destination of its reserves"

"is it time for China to consider using the reserves somewhere else, instead of concentrating too much on the United States?"

6) A number of Chinese companies are already said to be pursuing major merger and acquisition deals overseas, most noticeably in the raw materials sector.

7) Aluminum Corp of China (Chinalco) announced on February 12 it would invest $19.5 billion in mining giant Rio Tinto Group, bailing out the latter while securing for the state-owned Chinese company access to more resources.

8) China is considering using part of its huge foreign exchange reserves to help State oil companies explore for overseas resources. The government would use a slice of China's $1.95 trillion in foreign exchange reserves to set up a special fund to finance offshore oil exploration.

9) Fan Wenzhong, a State-owned assets supervision official in Chongqing city, said in an interview with the Shanghai Securities News on Monday that the government should use its reserves to set up a $200 billion overseas industrial fund and a $100 billion "social development" fund.

10) The crisis has prompted nations with much-needed technology to ease those restrictions. Military technology is now much more widely available. (I have been expecting this: the US is selling off military secrets in a doomed attempt to save its economy)

11) The United States and China signed an agreement on January 13 that allows US exporters to sell certain dual-use items to China without acquiring permission from the government. (Dual-use refers to products that can have either civilian or military uses.)

12) China will shift the use of its reserves to put more into developing countries and emerging markets. These countries offer growth potential, richer resources and lower labor costs but they need funds for development.

13) Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming left for Europe Tuesday at the head of a 300-strong team charged with spending billions of dollars on European products. The procurement team, which will visit Spain, Germany, Switzerland and Britain, could end up spending 15 billion yuan (2.2 billion dollars) or "considerably" more.

14) China's demand for European goods is growing as a result of the roll-out of a four-trillion-yuan economic stimulus package that includes huge infrastructure projects.

15) Europe has an obvious edge over the US in providing China with the equipment it needs. Europe, especially Germany and Switzerland, is much stronger in engineering then the US. (In the US, we focus more on finance and business)

16) The use of reserves for budgeted spending or subsidies to boost consumer spending could fuel inflation (which will force China to drop dollar peg).

Conclusion: Buy gold and get out of the dollar NOW! (BEFORE China starts selling treasuries).

This entry was posted in China, Currency_Collapse, Euro_Zone, Gold, News_Developments, Trade_Deficit, Wall_Street_Meltdown. Bookmark the permalink.

16 Responses to *****China is mobilizing its dollar reserves!*****

  1. Anonymous says:

    I've noticed you are putting stars "*" in the title. More stars means more important topic ??

  2. Anonymous says:

    Some five years ago the Chinese paid a visit to Latin America (Brazil, Argentina and others). Billions of dollars in Chinese investments were announced, but they didn't happen. I guess they were preparing the ground for their shopping spree.

  3. kenneth says:

    there was a time when the united states could intimidate others, now we are reduced to sending hill-billary on her knees to china, trying to convince them we both need each other. obviously paulson and geithner telling china how to manage it's currency and affairs didn't work. sadly the us will be unable to maintain any semblance of it's standard of living that many enjoyed, the supplies of critical natural resources are declining, china is buying access to those, the us can hardly afford today's commodity prices. what happens when the prices soar?

  4. Anonymous says:

    Dear Kenneth,

    All empires end.

  5. Anonymous says:

    I like this blog but for people like me the conclusion makes no sense, buy gold lol, most of us in this world live hand to mouth what are we meant to buy gold with?

    What should the layman do Eric?

    Btw im in the UK if that makes any difference.

  6. Anonymous says:

    If you are in the UK, definitely go buy canned goods, water purifier/tablets, guns, and contact your loved ones. Of course gold and silver would be nice if you can afford it.

  7. Anonymous says:

    Buy silver eagles. They're 1oz. of pure silver, legal US tender, and you can pick em up for about 18 bucks. They'll never go to zero, paper can.

  8. stibot says:

    Helou,

    I've question regarding gold/silver futures contracts and possible manipulations. I suppose someone is capable to explain.

    Today is Feb 25 which is a day of future contract, eg. GCG9. Coincidentally gold fall several percents the same day.

    Does it mean the final owner of future contract has to decide if he is going a) to request delivery or b) to cash the difference? Does it mean once he decides to cash that profit, he obtains money then, and no redemption is allowed afterwards?

    So does it have some sense manipulation of the price in the Day (and several days after) is made in prospect to discourage investors from delivery? Or my assumptions are wrong?

  9. Anonymous said...
    I've noticed you are putting stars "*" in the title. More stars means more important topic ??

    Yeah, pretty much. When I sending emails, I started putting between 3 and 50 starts around subject depending on importance (It made it easy to see and sort financial emails).

    Anyway, the reason this story deserved seven stars is that China has been the last big foreign buyer of US debt. Since it has announced its decision to deversify away from the dollar, there is now no one to absorb the trillions of treasuries set to be sold this year. This means treasuries likely to crash or be monetized by the fed, which in turn means a much weaker dollar.

    -----

    Anonymous said...
    Some five years ago the Chinese paid a visit to Latin America (Brazil, Argentina and others). Billions of dollars in Chinese investments were announced, but they didn't happen. I guess they were preparing the ground for their shopping spree.

    I don't know what happened five years ago, but China's current European shopping spree is guaranteed to happen because:

    1) It has been well publicized and China would lose face if it backs down.
    2) It is already being organized
    3) China really wants to aquire European technology
    4) China needs a lot of European equipment for all its new infrastructure projects.
    5) China wants to puts its reserves to use.

    -----

    kenneth said...
    the supplies of critical natural resources are declining, china is buying access to those, the us can hardly afford today's commodity prices. what happens when the prices soar?

    A lot of short term pain (next 2-3 years) and then the revival of US manufacturing.

    -----

    Anonymous said...
    All empires end.

    True.

    -----

    Anonymous said...
    I like this blog but for people like me the conclusion makes no sense, buy gold lol, most of us in this world live hand to mouth what are we meant to buy gold with?

    What should the layman do Eric?

    Stock up on supplies (food, cooking oil, etc...) and buy a small amount of silver.

  10. Matheus says:

    Hi man, i think you will find this quite interesting ! This is a excerpt from financial ninja:
    Tuesday, February 24, 2009
    Equities Sitting on Support

    Equities are sitting on the November 2008 panic lows and are extremely oversold. This is major psychological support. Expect some kind of spirited attempt to hold the line here. A counter trend bounce is probable.

    NOTE: The really scary rinses tend to happen from deeply oversold levels. So it really is do or die time.

    Digg This! • Share on Facebook • Email this • Email the author • Technorati Links • Save to del.icio.us • Stumble It! • Add to Mixx!

    Posted by Ben Bittrolff at 8:00 AM 4 comments

    Extremely Oversold

    Time to take some fat profits on those short positions and tighten up on those trailing stops. While there may still be that final rinse, this leg down is getting tired. A counter trend bounce is in the cards.

    Digg This! • Share on Facebook • Email this • Email the author • Technorati Links • Save to del.icio.us • Stumble It! • Add to Mixx!

    Posted by Ben Bittrolff at 7:10 AM 3 comments

    Monday, February 23, 2009
    Short: Gold and Silver

    I shorted both Gold and Silver into the close today. Yup. You read that correctly. SHORTED.

    I know I know... the world is gonna end and gold must go straight to a kaballion... Oh and silver will go up even more because the gold silver ratio is at ridiculous levels. Money is worthless and there will be super hyper inflation and then we're all gonna die.

    Alright, with that out of the way let's move on to more serious business.

    The broader equity markets absolutely collapsed today. There was plenty of bad news, that included Citigroup and AIG both pleading for more money. It is absolutely amazing what kind of black holes the world's financial institutions have become.

    AIG May Seek to Convert Preferred Shares to Common (Update1): "AIG may need to increase its cushion against losses as the U.S. recession forces down the value of fixed income securities. North American insurers have posted more than $140 billion in losses and writedowns since the beginning of 2007, with AIG representing about 40 percent of the total. The company may post a $60 billion loss, CNBC said today, citing a source it didn’t identify.

    The U.S. previously expanded the AIG bailout package to about $150 billion in November, when the insurer posted a third- quarter loss of $24.5 billion. The initial $85 billion federal credit line, provided in September when AIG agreed to turn over an 80 percent stake to the U.S., wasn’t enough to rescue the insurer."

    It is absolutely vital to understand just how deflationary all this is. The destruction of money and credit going on here is EPIC. While the Fed and Treasury are indeed bailing these institutions out repeatedly, these actions are not inflationary because they are not PRINTING money or MONETIZING debt. To date the trillions deployed have all been BORROWED. Most of these dollars have been borrowed via the issuance of government debt and the rest of them via complex 'cash for trash' swap arrangements. All this does is suck capital out of other areas of the economy and directs it towards these miserable failures. (A complete waste of time and money.)"
    What do you think ?

  11. Anonymous says:

    In that case, PLEASE FRIGGIN HAVE A BIGGER BAILOUT SINCE ITS GONNA BE COST FREE AND IT BE GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY.

    And if you agree with the above, well, mommy told me if you got nothin good to say, just keep your trap shut.

  12. criticalcontrarian says:

    You never have mentioned the Yen carry trade which is a very big part of the whole economic debacle facing the world today. You know, the cheap money from Japan used to fund the subprime which got everyone into this mess, why is that?

  13. Numonic says:

    "It is absolutely vital to understand just how deflationary all this is. The destruction of money and credit going on here is EPIC. While the Fed and Treasury are indeed bailing these institutions out repeatedly, these actions are not inflationary because they are not PRINTING money or MONETIZING debt. To date the trillions deployed have all been BORROWED. Most of these dollars have been borrowed via the issuance of government debt and the rest of them via complex 'cash for trash' swap arrangements. All this does is suck capital out of other areas of the economy and directs it towards these miserable failures. (A complete waste of time and money.)"
    What do you think ?"

    This guy like most deflationists don't get it.

    Here is the simple equation:

    Credit Contraction/Collapse + Huge Trade Deficit/poor manufacturing sector = Rising Prices.

    The mention that the destruction of credit going on now is EPIC supports the fact that we are headed for EPIC rising prices. Not because the govt. will print dollars to the EPIC level of the debt but because BORROWING COSTS will rise to the EPIC level of the destruction of credit.

    Another simple equation:

    The worse the credit contraction gets, the higher prices will get.

    Most deflationists don't understand this because they seem to ignore our huge trade deficit/dependence on borrowing to supply goods/poor manufacturing sector. So the more credit is contracting the worse those things get. The one thing the deflationists agree with the inflationists is that the destruction of credit is EPIC. The thing both the inflationists and deflationists get wrong is that we are not experiencing either as severely as we are experiencing hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is by definition the destruction of credit. And one thing both deflationists and inflationists need to understand is that in an economy that survives off of borrowing/credit, the destruction of credit means rising prices. As debt is loosing value(being destroyed), real things are gaining value as they will be harder to get without debt/credit.

    Here's an article on Bloomberg about what I mean:

    Low Mortgage Rates a Mirage as Fees Climb, Eligibility Tightens

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid;=a8ta_MEhUZ9E&refer;=home

    Oh and I disagree that there is no Fed Notes being printed. The credit contraction is happening because there wasn't enough Fed Notes, if anything the printing of Fed Notes has accelerated since the beginning of this credit contraction. If it hadn't the credit market would have collapsed by now. The problem the Fed and Bankers have is that they can not print Fed Notes as fast as the credit is being destroyed, just as they couldn't create Fed Notes as fast as the credit grew which is what got us in to this problem of credit contracting. Credit always moves faster than the printing of money and that's the problem we have. It's going to come to a point where larger bills (i.e $100,000 and larger) will have to be created. This will happen after prices start rising after the Fed realizes that they can not print $100 bills fast enough to stop the credit contraction.

    As far as when prices will start rising, you should look for the next big hit in the credit market, whether it be a big bank like Bank of America going under which some say will be within the next 60 days or a state taking a big financial hit. The next big hit in the credit market will send borrowing costs upward and the price of things up along with it as companies need to borrow to survive because of our huge trade deficit/poor manufacturing sector/lack of savings.

  14. Anonymous says:

    Great post numonic, you hit the nail on the head. It is hard to explain most of this stuff to individuals who are not as informed on the subject as others.

    The one thing that amazes me is the velocity of money at this current time, appears to be nearly zero...

    Correct me if I'm wrong here.

  15. Numonic says:

    "The one thing that amazes me is the velocity of money at this current time, appears to be nearly zero...

    Correct me if I'm wrong here."

    If you realize that credit is just as much "money" as dollars are in our economy, you'll see that the velocity of money is moving very fast as you can see credit(money) loosing value everyday by looking at the stock market. In the same way people would be getting rid of Federal Reserve Notes they are getting rid of debt. The debt in the stock market is loosing value at high speeds. This is hyperinflation. Like I said soon the pace will pick up too fast for $100 bills to stop default and larger bills will have to be created or there will be defaults. This is hyperinflation. This is why larger bills are created. The govt. doesn't just decide to print larger bills for no reason, the larger bills are printed to stop default of enourmously large debt that occured because credit always(especially in the information age of computers where trillions of dollars can be created by the stroke of a key) credit always moves faster than the printing and movement of paper and especially things that are harder to produce like gold/silver. Debt is always at the base of hyperinflation.

    But realize this, even if we default on the debt, because we are so dependent on debt to survive(with our poor manufacturing sector/trade deficit/lack of savings) prices will still rise high because without credit those things we need will be scarce. This is why when we defaulted on the debt during the great depression, even though the dollar strengthened so did gold. Today is allot worse than it was during the great depression as far as US manufacturing sector/trade deficit/lack of savings. The dollar has moved so far from gold that defaulting on the debt to try to strengthen the dollar will shoot gold to the stars.

    This is why they are doing the bailouts because the bailouts are stalling this from happening. The beneficiaciries of this Fractional Reserve Banking System realize that their end is imminent and they are trying to do everything to make it last as long as it can.

    I believe strongly that this year 2009 is the end of this system and they will default on the debt, not because they didn't try but because the debt is so large that the amount of printing needed will make the Zimbabwe dollar look like gold compared to the Federal Reserve Note after it's all said and done.

    But all paper money has the same problem. So get gold and silver while it's cheap because it won't be by the end of this year.

  16. Anonymous says:

    Didn't China quickly change their tune about dropping the US Dollar after US paid off China with the rich Southern oil field of Iraq.

    Isn't it funny how China didn't said anything about the US Dollar in the last G7 meeting.

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