China, Russia rethinking the dollar’s status

Reuters reports that China backs talks on dollar's reserve status.

(emphasis mine) [my comment]

China backs talks on dollar as reserve-Russian source
Thu Mar 19, 2009 11:24am EDT
By Gleb Bryanski

MOSCOW, March 19 (Reuters) - China and other emerging nations back Russia's call for a discussion on how to replace the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency, a senior Russian government source said on Thursday. Russia has proposed the creation of a new reserve currency, to be issued by international financial institutions, among other measures in the text of its proposals to the April G20 summit published last Monday.

Calls for a rethink of the dollar's status as world's sole benchmark currency come amid concerns about its long-term value as the U.S. Federal Reserve moved to pump more than a trillion dollars of new cash into the ailing economy late Wednesday.

Russia met representatives of China, India and Brazil ahead of the G20 finance ministers meeting last week, as the big emerging powers seek to up their influence on decision making globally. Their first ever joint communique did not mention a new currency [Russia, China, India and Brazil are issuing their own communiqué? That is definitely not good for the US or the dollar] but the source said the issue was discussed.

"They (China) did not formally put forward their position for the G20 summit but unofficially they had distributed their paper regarding the same ideas (the need for the new currency)," [China is unofficially proposing ditching the dollar. Now that is scary!] the source told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The source said the Chinese paper envisaged the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) being first assigned a role of a clearing currency on some transactions and then gradually becoming the main global reserve currency. [Looks like a lot of thought is being put into these "discussion" on how to replace the dollar] "They said that the role of reserve currency should be given to SDR," the source said.

A U.N. panel of experts is also looking at using expanded SDRs, originally created by the International Monetary Fund in 1969, but now used mainly as an accounting unit within similar organisations as a new reserve currency instead of the dollar.

Currency specialist Avinash Persaud, a member of the U.N. panel, told a Reuters Funds Summit on Wednesday that the proposal was to create something like the old Ecu, or European currency unit, that was a hard-traded, weighted basket.

The SDR and the old Ecu are essentially combinations of currencies, weighted to a constituent's economic clout, which can be valued against other currencies and against those inside the basket.

The Russian source said Moscow was aware that the emergence of the new global currency would not happen overnight and said its goal was to initiate a discussion about it at the G20 summit in London on April 2.

The source said that India did not object to the discussion but was not prepared to take the lead. The source said South Korea and South Africa backed the idea, while developed nations were not "allergic" to it. [Yikes!]

"We are not waiting for everyone to say: 'How beautifully it has all been formulated, let's subscribe to it'," [Agreed] the source said. "The main idea is to start a discussion about it."

Russia holds about half of its reserves, the world's third-largest, in dollars, with the rest in euros and pounds. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has called on reserve currency issuers to show more financial discipline. [Russia is probably not very happy with the fed's 15-fold expansion of the US money supply]

Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin told reporters on the sidelines of the G20 finance ministers meeting that it would take up to 30 years to create a new super-currency, suggesting there was no unity in Russia on the issue.

My reaction: I have said it before: there is absolutely no way the dollar will survive as the world's reserve currency.

1) Nations around the world are concerned about the dollar as the fed pumps trillions into the ailing US economy.

2) Many nations back discussion on how to replace the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency:

A) Russia has proposed discussions for the creation of a new reserve currency
B) China unofficially
distributed their own paper envisioning a new global reserve currency.
C) India did not object to the discussion
D) South Korea and South Africa backed the idea
E) Developed nations were not "allergic" to

3) Representatives of Russia, China, India and Brazil meet last week and issued their first ever joint communiqué. Global politics seem to be moving towards a post-US world...


Conclusion:
The world is moving away from the dollar at an accelerating pace. Be warned: the decoupling from the dollar will not be easy or painless. However, leaving the dollar is an unavoidable process which must take place before the global economy can recover.

This entry was posted in China, Currency_Collapse, Euro_Zone, Gold, News_Developments, Russia. Bookmark the permalink.

17 Responses to China, Russia rethinking the dollar’s status

  1. Bowtie says:

    Eric,

    Do you currently hold dollars, if not what do you hold your money in?

  2. Bowtie says:

    email follow up

  3. Anonymous says:

    Please post for the benefit of everyone.

  4. Why Is China's Prime Minister Complaining About U.S. Government Bonds?
    http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id;=159465

    So, Chinese might busy now calculating.
    The Fed call leave Chinese limited choices:

    1. (option) put up - sell bonds at the price higher then they have been bought.
    This will trigger underlying inflation in China and force to unpeg Renminbi. (The value of US consumer market is not as presented by US financial propaganda - trade has been shrinked already.)
    On the other hand the selling of bonds from China will drive the bonds market price down, this will kill the rest of financial component of Dow, bonds yield rise and eventually (in honest classical model of the reserve banking) interest rates have to rise. As the real productive sector is not improving, this scenario is a straight walk into stagflation.

    2. (option) for Chinese to shut up and leave with the lower yields.
    It means they have to write off their losses in US bonds, and continue to finance the Fed ponzi scheme. While US productive economy is not improving, this will continue downwards spiral into financial black hole.

    As we know from the world history with this monetary system design,
    the only way out is to boost worldwide spending. How? It is known - war preparations. Though natural disasters (like 911) could help.

  5. Bowtie said...
    Eric,

    Do you currently hold dollars, if not what do you hold your money in?

    I have invested most of my savings in physical gold and silver.

  6. There are really nice CDS for US you can buy on ShadowBet, though they are increasing spreads every day. Most guys hold the ride on these CDS, but Chinese can unwind their shorts soon..

  7. Bowtie says:

    Sick move Eric, I would have all of my savings in physical gold and silver if it weren't for my wife.

  8. Anonymous says:

    You mean Slick move I hope.

  9. Bowtie says:

    I did mean sick, but with a good connotation. My wife is more conservative and wants the cash - how dollars are more conservative than gold is beyond me!

  10. Anonymous says:

    Bowtie - get some cute Chinese pandas, maybe 1/10 oz to start and give them to her. It is like Neo taking the red pill. When she owns them and puts them away, maybe she will start to see the code instead of the walls.

  11. occdude says:

    Bowtie, try 50-50 with 50 in gold and 50 in treasury tips. And don't be a wuss, take control of at least 50 percent of your money from your over bearing wife

  12. Bowtie says:

    Haha, great comment, i have about 20% in gold and silver between CEF, GTU, and physical gold and silver. (my entire roth ira is in either cef or gtu). The rest is in cash and some other stock ETF's. I am probably going to sell off EFA and VTI in exchange for a few of those new ultra high relief coins.

  13. Bowtie says:

    Also, if dollars become hyperinflated wouldn't those TIPS be worthless also?

  14. Hugo says:

    Bowtie, your wife is rejecting gold? It has to be the first time a woman rejects gold. Maybe she does not like the idea of having gold coins and bars, but you could try some pure gold jewelry. I doubt she says no to that ;)

  15. Bowtie says:

    jewelery actually did work, but its too expensive and its not really an investment, she'll never sell that stuff.

  16. occdude says:

    Tips in theory are supposed to adjust to the level of inflation expressed by the CPI.

    It's not fail safe because the government determines the CPI numbers (and we all know how the govenment fudges their numbers), but if your conservative wife wants cash, it's at least somewhat protected against inflation.

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