Bloomberg reports that G20 shapes new world order with lesser role for US, markets.
(emphasis mine) [my comment]
G-20 Shapes New World Order With Lesser Role for U.S., Markets
By Rich Miller and Simon Kennedy
April 3 (Bloomberg) -- Global leaders took their biggest steps yet toward a new world order that's less U.S.-centric with a more heavily regulated financial industry and a greater role for international institutions and emerging markets.
At the end of a summit in London, policy makers from the Group of 20 yesterday delivered a regulatory blueprint that French President Nicholas Sarkozy said turned the page on the Anglo-Saxon model of free markets by placing stricter limits on hedge funds and other financiers. The leaders also pledged to triple the resources of the International Monetary Fund and to hand China and other developing economies a greater say in the management of the world economy.
"It's the passing of an era," said Robert Hormats, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs International, who helped prepare summits for presidents Gerald R. Ford, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. "The U.S. is becoming less dominant while other nations are gaining influence."
A lot was at stake. If the leaders had failed to forge a consensus -- Sarkozy this week threatened to quit the talks if they didn't back much tighter regulation -- it might have set back the world's economy and markets just as they're showing signs of shaking off the worst financial crisis in six decades.
That's what happened in 1933, when President Franklin D. Roosevelt torpedoed a similar conference in London by rejecting its plan to stabilize currency rates and in the process scotched international efforts to lift the world out of a depression. [1933, the US was the world's largest lender and the US didn't want to bail out the world's irresponsible nations. This time around, the US is the world's largest borrower, and it desperately needs a bailout from the world's responsible nations]
More Conciliation
Seeking to avoid a repeat of that historic flop, President Barack Obama junked the at-times go-it-alone approach of his predecessor, George W. Bush, and adopted a more conciliatory stance toward his fellow leaders.
"In a world that is as complex as it is, it is very important for us to be able to forge partnerships as opposed to simply dictating solutions," Obama told a press conference at the conclusion of the summit.
Stock markets rose in response to the steps taken by the G-20 leaders. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 2.9 percent to 834.38. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 216.48 points, or 2.8 percent, to 7,978.08. Both closed at their highest levels since the second week of February.In an effort to promote harmony [because the world would have said no], Obama soft-pedaled earlier U.S. demands that the summit agree on a specific target for fiscal stimulus in the face of opposition from France and Germany. Instead, he settled for a vague pledge that the leaders would do whatever it takes to revive the global economy.
Repudiation of Past
The president also signed on to a communiqué that Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz said repudiated the previous U.S.-led push to free capitalism from the constraints of governments.
"This is a major step forward and a reversal of the ideology of the 1990s, and at a very official level, a rejection of the ideas pushed by the U.S. and others," said Stiglitz, an economics professor at Columbia University. "It's a historic moment when the world came together and said we were wrong to push deregulation." [Admitting the blatantly obvious long after the world's financial system has been wrecked. Whoopee! (sarcasm)]
In bowing to that view, the leaders conceded in a statement that "major failures" in regulation had been "fundamental causes" of the market turmoil they are trying to tackle. To make amends and to try to avoid a repeat of the crisis, they pledged to impose stronger restraints on hedge funds, credit rating companies, risk-taking and executive pay.
"Countries that used to defend deregulation at any cost are recognizing that there needs to be a larger state presence so this crisis never happens again," said Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.
Financial Stability Board
A new Financial Stability Board will be established to unite regulators and join the IMF in providing early warnings of potential threats. Once the economy recovers, work will begin on new rules aimed at avoiding excessive leverage and forcing banks to put more money aside during good times. ['Once the economy recovers" = the very distant future] ["forcing banks to put more money aside during good times" = reserve requirements (which the US doesn't have)]
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had unsuccessfully sought to convince the U.S. and Britain to sign on to similar steps before the crisis began in mid-2007, hailed the communiqué as a "victory for common sense." [These types of victories have been rare in recent years.]
The U.S. did, though, take the lead in getting the summit to agree on an increase in IMF rescue funds to $750 billion from $250 billion now. Japan, the European Union and China will provide the first $250 billion of the increase, with the balance to come from as yet unidentified countries [Who are these "unidentified countries"? 500 billion is a lot of money. How much will the US and UK contribute?].
"This will provide the IMF with enough resources to meet the needs of East European nations and also provide back-up funding to a broader set of countries," said Brad Setser, a former U.S. Treasury official who's now at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
IMF Allocation
The G-20 also agreed to an allocation of $250 billion in Special Drawing Rights, the artificial currency that the IMF uses to settle accounts among its member nations. The move is akin to a central bank such as the Federal Reserve effectively creating money out of thin air, except it's on a global scale. [There are so many people who actually believe you can achieve prosperity through the printing press... unbelievable]
[Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) are currencies (euro, dollars, yen, etc...) bundle into a new, artificial currency (like subprime loans were bundled into subprime CDOs]
The increase in Special Drawing Rights will allow countries to tap IMF money without having to accept changes to economic policies often demanded as a condition of aid. The cash is disbursed in proportion to the money each member-nation pays into the fund. Rich nations will be allowed to divert their allocations to countries in greater need. [They will be "allowed", not "required", to divert their allocations to countries in greater need]
The G-20 said they would couple the financing moves with steps to give emerging economic powerhouses such as China, India and Brazil a greater say in how the IMF is run.
Emerging Markets Benefit
Citigroup Inc. economists Don Hanna and Jurgen Michels called the summit agreement "a boon to emerging markets" in a note to clients yesterday.
Mexico said Wednesday it will seek $47 billion from the IMF under the Washington-based lender's new Flexible Credit Line, which allows some countries to borrow money with no conditions. [Lending "money with no conditions"... What a great idea! (heavy sarcasm)]
Emerging-market stocks, bonds and currencies rallied yesterday on speculation other developing nations will follow Mexico's lead. Gains in Polish, Czech and Brazilian stocks helped push the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 5.6 percent to 613.07, the highest since Oct. 15.
In a bid to avoid another mistake of the depression era, G-20 leaders repeated an earlier pledge to avoid trade protectionism and beggar-thy-neighbor policies that could aggravate the decline in the global economy.
The Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicted this week that global trade will shrink 13 percent this year as loss-ridden banks cut back on credit to exporters and importers.
Trade Finance
To help combat that, the G-20 said they will make at least $250 billion available in the next two years to support the finance of trade through export credit agencies and development banks such as the World Bank.
The summit took place amid speculation among investors that the deepest global recession in six decades may be abating. Data released yesterday showed orders placed with U.S. factories rose in February for the first time in seven months, U.K. house prices unexpectedly gained in March and Chinese manufacturing increased. Still, a report today is forecast to show U.S. unemployment at its highest in a quarter-century.
"If the economy turns more favorable, this meeting will probably be viewed as a milestone," said C. Fred Bergsten, a former U.S. official and director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
The G-20 members are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the U.S., the U.K. and the European Union. Officials from Spain and the Netherlands were also present.
Reuters answers who got what from G20 summit?
FACTBOX: Who got what from G20 summit?
Thu Apr 2, 2009 8:13pm BST
(Reuters) - G20 nations had set sometimes competing priorities in the run-up to the London crisis summit. Following is a rundown of how the key players fared on the issues most vital to them.
FISCAL STIMULUS
Who wanted what: The United States, Britain and Japan had been strong proponents of concerted action around the world to pump more government funds into stimulus packages; France and Germany led calls to hold off, preferring to wait for results from funds already committed.
Result: The summit set no obligation for further fiscal measures, a fact greeted with satisfaction by Germany.
MARKET REGULATION
Who wanted what: France and Germany had been the most vocal in pressing for oversight of hedge funds, a cause that Chancellor Angela Merkel had pushed even before the financial crisis. Japan had said regulation should take second place to saving the world economy.
Outcome: Clear summit commitment to extend regulation and oversight to all systemically important financial institutions, instruments and markets. Credit rating agencies will also be covered.
BEEFED UP IMF
Who wanted what: Australia, Canada and South Africa were among those making the running for a big increase in IMF lending resources; Russia, Argentina, China, India, Saudi Arabia and others argued for reforms to give emerging economies more voting clout at the Fund.
Outcome: a tripling of IMF lending funds was more than had been expected, but less was said about the rebalancing of influence that the developing countries want.
TRADE
Who wanted what: Brazil and Britain had floated a figure of $100 billion for new credit lines for international trade.
Outcome: figure of $250 billion exceeded expectations.
PROTECTIONISM
Who wanted what: Britain, United States, South Korea, Canada and India had demanded that the G20 make strong commitments to free trade.
Outcome: Summit 'reaffirmed' commitment from previous summit last year to refrain from raising new barriers to investment and trade. In practice, however, many of the G20 countries have adopted protectionist measures since the Washington summit in November to defend domestic companies.
TAX HAVENS
Who wanted what: France and Germany were again the most vocal in demanding a crackdown on tax havens.
Outcome: summit agreed to blacklist 'non-cooperative jurisdictions' and consider sanctions.
RESERVE CURRENCY
Who wanted what: China and Russia wanted to discuss a new global reserve currency as an alternative to the dollar, based on IMF Special Drawing Rights.
Outcome: Topic was not discussed, but Russia issued its own statement. [Expected. The dollar will collapse long before the world comes up with a suitable alternative.]
My reaction: Comments are in the two articles above. I am waiting for more details to emerge about how everything that has been announced will work.

Wasn't there also talk about the IMF selling a portion of their gold reserves to raise money?
Eric one thing you have not considered is that investing in Chinese RMB might be a good long term play. It is clear that the RMB is on its way to reserve currency status and will be increasing in value in the next couple of years, especially against the US Dollar.
Great postings & thanks from Singapore
dear Eric;
If possible to give us an idea of the proposed IMF gold selling and its effect on the Gold prices
many thanks
Mudar Dudin
Watch Australia-China relations. When they establish the credit line or currency swap, then the us/poms Ponzi is about to exercise quick exit.
(New Zealand - China established free trade agreement last year; it could be one of explanation of the recent remarkable NZ dollar surge while NZ economy still in shambles.)
following up..
The IMF has been saying it will sell approx 350-400 tonnes of gold for years now, but of course it never does, basically it is a bluff that only has an effect on the Gold Futures and associated paper gold investment vehicles which are operating in never-never land. Anybody holding that much gold in reality at this late stage would not sell.
I believe most of the money for the IMF will eventually come from China - they want to swap their USD reserves in exchange for SDRs (or IMF bonds denominated in SDRs). This is a scheme to allow them to convert their US debt into world debt.
Regarding the IMF gold sales - I think these could be used in a similar way to the EU gold sales - that is to bail out the other bullion banks from their intractable gold short positions. Once completed the price of gold may well spike up as the banks stop shorting and switch to the long side.
Whoohoo yess! Océ and Xerox will be big winners, the ECB shall start printing anytime soon!!!!!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/ecb-divided-as-trichet-hints-at-plan-to-print-money-1661116.html
The final step towards full recovery is nearing..
We have no chance! No one knows what they are doing.
Looking at the
Open interest
it seems likely to me that the IMF gold sale will take place before June 2009.
Could someone expand on the reason why the IMF may sell gold before June 2009.
Trueaim, are you sure? Have you had a look at what Robert highlights about the June 2009 futures? Looks like something fishy may be going on. I'd love it if someone could offer some possible explanations. Thanks.
Anon @ 6:45 AM,
To answer your question; the IMF is selling its gold because gold is overvalued; gold is in a "bubble".
Not the answer you wanted to hear? Too bad, it's the truth.
Thank you for your reply Eliol.
What evidence to you present to indicate gold is overvalued?
Anon @ 8:01 AM,
Gold has no utility value. The U.S. Dollar is backed the the federal governments ability to tax its citizens and corporations. To me, gold is nice for jewelry, but as an investment class, it has no value to me.
@Eliol
Haha, yes indeed. The fed is printing money like crazy and the US has a massive national debt, but hey, they can tax their citizens.
Well you are quite right, what we are currently seeing is the invisible hand in the taxpayer's pocket...
A tax poem:
Tax his land,
Tax his bed,
Tax the table
At which he’s fed.
Tax his tractor,
Tax his mule,
Teach him taxes
Are the rule.
Tax his work,
Tax his pay,
He works for peanuts Anyway!
Tax his cow,
Tax his goat,
Tax his pants,
Tax his coat.
Tax his ties,
Tax his shirt,
Tax his work,
Tax his dirt.
Tax his tobacco,
Tax his drink,
Tax him if he
Tries to think.
Tax his cigars,
Tax his beers,
If he cries
Tax his tears.
Tax his car,
Tax his gas,
Find other ways
To tax his ass.
Tax all he has
Then let him know
That you won’t be done
Till he has no dough.
When he screams and hollers,
Then tax him some more,
Tax him till
He’s good and sore.
Then tax his coffin,
Tax his grave,
Tax the sod in
Which he’s laid.
Put these words
Upon his tomb,
‘Taxes drove me to my doom…’
When he’s gone,
Do not relax,
It’s time to apply
The inheritance tax.
@Eliot
Time to wake up my friend! The dollar mere printed paper.
@Eliol
You are right - gold has no use and people do not need it for anything. So high prices will not hurt anybody - except people who love to buy jewely and some electronics.
US cannot tax citisens to cover all debts that is due. It is too much!!! They would kill the economy for ages and boost economy of other countries. So the value of gold is that:
if the price of gold will go up to 10 000 USD/ oz - then depts of US will be covered by gold in Fort Knox. Prices of other assets will not suffer so much - because they are based on demand. It is still not the time to do it - but they will do it. The same like in Great Depression.Nobody will be hurted. There is the problem of these who have already phisical gold - but I think they will find the way to tax them heavily - for instance for any sell transaction of gold - 80% VAT tax. This will sterilise potential incomes people would have. If you do not tax - fraud endangered 10 years of prison. THEY WILL WIN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.
Jay Dee
@eliol
you are giving the imf too much credit for knowing what they are doing. everyone knows or at least should know that the imf, and the worldbank, are nothing more than extortion rings, run by cia operatives, and the likes. they are selling gold because it's overvalued? one of the signs of an intelligent person is not to repeat your mistakes. like the mistake they made around the end of the 1990's when gold was selling in the $200 range, and they sold. now it's over $900, and the imf is broke, in addition to the world's leading countries having to fork over $1,000,000,000,000 to them, the brilliant imf is having a yard sale. no doubt the only thing they have of value is gold. by the way eliol could you clue us in on your investments that are doing so well? but keep in mind the loss of purchasing power of the currency you are invested in, so in real terms please.
By the way,
These who invested in US dollars a year ago gained the most in purchasing power so far. (if you compare to oil, copper, silver, sugar, homes - almost everything). So so far USD is the KING. The question is for how long. If Obama stops printing - it will be quite a while. But more likely is that uncle Sam will have to inflade debts to make GDP - debrs ration 1:1.
Jay Dee
The USD has lost 95% of its value since the 1913. That is not a good investment. Sure, if you invested in the stock market, your investment gained value - but the stock market went up because Americans borrowed and spent money like there was no tomorrow. Our spending habits are changing, which is changing quarterly earnings, which is changing the returns on the stock market.
The Fed will not be able to stop printing because the rest of the world WILL stop loaning us money soon (China publicly states it is concerned about its dollar holdings. When you are concerned about an investment, you don't double down on it). Given the massive budget deficits the USA has been running, the rest of the money to cover the deficit will have to come from somewhere... Americans are broke and interest rates are ridiculously low, so it will not come from them. The Fed will print more money to cover the portion of the deficit not financed by the rest of the world. And the dollar will continue to be devalued.
Here's the only thing on the press about the Russia statement:
Russia and China back currency study
«Russia proposed on Thursday an IMF or G20 study on creating a new international reserve currency and China reiterated support for a broader discussion of the dollar's role that was missing at the London G20 summit.
Strengthened regional currencies would be a basis for the new unit, which could also be partially backed by gold, Russia said in a statement released on the sidelines of the summit.»
dear Eric;
If possible to give us an idea of the proposed IMF gold selling and its effect on the Gold prices
IMF has been planning to sell 400 tons of gold for the last two years. From 2007 to today, the IMF has REPEATEDLY announced its intention to sell this 400 tons of gold. Maybe this time it actually will sell the gold, but until the sale is actually approved, I woundn't waste time worrying about it.
I will write an entry on this perpetually announced IMF gold sale later.
Telegraph 4.2.2009
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
"The G20 moves the world a step closer to a global currency
The world is a step closer to a global currency, backed by a global central bank, running monetary policy for all humanity.
A single clause in Point 19 of the communiqué issued by the G20 leaders amounts to revolution in the global financial order.
"We have agreed to support a general SDR allocation which will inject $250bn (£170bn) into the world economy and increase global liquidity," it said. SDRs are Special Drawing Rights, a synthetic paper currency issued by the International Monetary Fund that has lain dormant for half a century. In effect, the G20 leaders have activated the IMF's power to create money and begin global "quantitative easing". In doing so, they are putting a de facto world currency into play. It is outside the control of any sovereign body. Conspiracy theorists will love it."
Global plan for recovery and reform (02/04/2009)
The official communique issued at the close of the G20 London Summit.
"19. We have agreed to support a general SDR allocation which will inject $250 billion into the world economy and increase global liquidity, and urgent ratification of the Fourth Amendment."
IMF fact sheet: "Fourth Amendment of the Articles of Agreement: Its intent is to enable all members of the IMF to participate in the SDR system on an equitable basis and correct for the fact that countries that joined the Fund. The Fourth Amendment will become effective when three fifths of the IMF membership (111 members) with 85 percent of the total voting power accept it. Currently, 131 members with 77.68 percent of total voting power had accepted the proposed amendment. Approval by the United States, with 16.75 percent of total votes, would put the amendment into effect."
Telegraph: By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard March 27, 2009
"US backing for world currency stuns markets
US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner shocked global markets by revealing that Washington is "quite open" to Chinese proposals for the gradual development of a global reserve currency run by the International Monetary Fund."