Been researching soybeans

I have been doing a lot of research on soybeans. I will write a long entry tomorrow. In the meantime, below is a quick partial preview.

2006 Soybean production

3.197

billion bushels

2008 Soybean production

2.960

billion bushels

Date

Forcasts for 2009 soybean production

Aug-11

USDA

3.199

billion bushels

Sep-1

FCStone Group

3.266

billion bushels

Sep-3

Informa

3.372

billion bushels

Sep-4

Allendale

3.309

billion bushels

Sep-11

USDA

3.245

billion bushels

Sep-4

Lanworth

3.021

billion bushels

USDA projection for soybean exports in 2008-9

1.265

billion bushels

Actual soybean exports in 2008-9

1.326

billion bushels

USDA projection for soybean exports in 2009-10

1.265

billion bushels

New crop sales as of August 20, 2008

271

million bushels

New crop sales as of August 20, 2009

477

million bushels

Aug-18

Commercial inventories of soybeans

9.108

million bushels

Aug-25

Commercial inventories of soybeans

7.426

million bushels

Sep-1

Commercial inventories of soybeans

5.913

million bushels

Month

Open Interest (as of August 31)

9-Sep

CBOT Soybeans

16.475

million bushels

9-Nov

CBOT Soybeans

1239.520

million bushels


About Grasshoppers

Grasshoppers are eating grass and other forage grown for livestock in such proportions that some U.S. ranchers are selling cattle because they won't have feed for the animals this winter.

At least seven southwestern South Dakota counties are seeking disaster declarations to help deal with hordes of grasshoppers that are devouring hay fields, grass and other livestock forage.

Worst infestations of grasshoppers: Much of Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana and Idaho
Large grasshopper populations also found in: North Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, Utah, Washington, Oregon, California and Arizona


A question I need answered

There are 99 counties in the U.S. state of Iowa. Out of those 99 counties, 57 of them have been designated disaster areas by the USDA.

GRASSLEY: 57 IOWA COUNTIES DESIGNATED DISASTER AREAS BY USDA

The following information was released by Iowa Senator Charles Grassley :

Senator Chuck Grassley said today that 57 counties in Iowa have received a disaster designation from Secretary of Agriculture, Tom Vilsack due to the severe storms, hail, and flooding that occurred between May 15 and July 31, 2009. Grassley previously urged Secretary Vilsack to honor Governor Chet Culvers August 11th request to declare a Secretarial Disaster Designation for 23 Iowa counties, as well as an August 20th request for an additional eight counties. The second request has not yet been acted on by the Secretary.

This designation makes farmers eligible to be considered for low-interest emergency loans from the Farm Service Agency and the Supplemental Revenue Assistance Program (SURE). The Farm Service Agency will consider each application on its own merit by taking into account the extent of losses, security available, and repayment ability. Local Farm Service Agency offices can provide affected farmers with further information.

This declaration will help Iowa farmers who suffered crop losses get back on their feet, Grassley said. Relief cant come fast enough for Iowans whose crops have been taken down to the ground. I appreciate Secretary Vilsacks quick action and look forward to his consideration of the remaining counties.

If the USDA is declaring 58% of the state to be an agricultural disaster area, then why is it also expected Iowa to produce a record 2.5 billion bushels of corn and Iowa's soybean yield to be a nation-leading 52 bushels per acre?

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9 Responses to Been researching soybeans

  1. Jeff Burton says:

    Answer to your question: because federally designated "disaster areas" are a source of a lot of cash.

  2. Anonymous says:

    vochnifOur family are farmers here in Iowa, the amount of hail damage in NC/NE IA was worst on record. One of our soybean fields was hit and damage was the worst we've ever seen. The areal coverage though is spotty and should have modest impacts on yields in the state overall.

    Bigger question is our record cold and wet summer on production. Beans don't like cold, wet conditions. Our local farmers are saying lots of fungus on pods impacting beans.

    We've had almost 30 inches of rain since 1 May. Harvest will be at least 2 weeks late. Any frost/freeze will further impact yields before 1 Oct (esp. 20-25 Sep).

    Corn is better...very possible we will average 200+ bushels per acre.

    Hope helps,

  3. Anonymous says:

    September 13, 2009

    Obama Assassination Plot Fails As Full Terror Alert Hits North America

    http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index1274.htm

  4. Anonymous says:

    Eric, when will you finish your "major" article? 1 week? 1 month? 1 year? :)

    Wait until dollar does collapse as you wanna say?

  5. Gord Nanaimo says:

    The item indicated not counties had been processed. How many remain? The total could be higher.

  6. Anonymous says:

    Hi,
    Im a very novice day trader, back here in the UK. I foolishly(?) bought a futures contract (Nov Beans) when the price had fallen to what, at the time, I thought was an attractive $9.51/Bu. Given all of the stuff I've read here - Iowa disaster areas, grasshopper problems, late planting/late harvesting, paper thin stocks, etc, what are the chances of my not losing a bundle - again - on soybeans?

  7. Anonymous says:

    @bean trader,
    You could get burned badly on your bean future contract. This blog is for commodities diehard follower only. The writer himself is a "seller". He sell his Russian dream on people.

  8. Anonymous says:

    nobody forces anybody to read this blog, which I personally find extremely well researched and informative (and it is for free!); TX Eric for all your amazing work, that I have been following now for quite a while.

    to read this blog and to comment in a highly derogative way is simply impolite and unpleasant. everybody is entitled to his/her opinion which can/should be put forward in an adequate way.

    btw I also am keenly awaiting the announced major article, but again, eric has the perfect right to finish it in his own good time

    TX eric
    Regina from Austria

  9. dashxdr says:

    Regarding Eric's major article, look back a bit, Eric posted a very rough draft:

    http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/09/very-rough-draft-of-major-article.html

    He's got some of his comments, but he meant to go back to it.

    I think Eric had big plans for the article but he ran out of motivation. I am constantly surprised how much energy he has to keep his blog up.

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