National Weather Service reports warnings and advisories for Nebraska.

(emphasis mine) [my comment]

000
WWUS75 KCYS 280313
NPWCYS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
913 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2009

...THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TONIGHT...

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER ON SUNDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT... TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059-060-067>070-281400- /O.CON.KCYS.FZ.W.0002.090928T0900Z-090928T1400Z/ SIOUX-DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL- CHEYENNE-CONVERSE-NIOBRARA-PLATTE-GOSHEN-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS- PINE BLUFFS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF... HARRISON...CHADRON...ALLIANCE... SCOTTSBLUFF...GERING...HARRISBURG...BRIDGEPORT...BAYARD... KIMBALL...SIDNEY...DOUGLAS...GLENROCK...LUSK...WHEATLAND... GUERNSEY...TORRINGTON...CHEYENNE...PINE BLUFFS 913 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2009

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM MDT MONDAY...
…
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AND AT TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS SUCH AS ALLIANCE SEEING THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY LIKELY. PEOPLE WITH COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEM OVERNIGHT.

&&

$$

000
WWUS73 KLBF 280003
NPWLBF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
703 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009

...COLD DRY AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...

COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT.

NEZ004-022>024-035-036-056-057-059-094-281345- /O.CON.KLBF.FZ.W.0001.090928T0600Z-090928T1500Z/ SHERIDAN-GARDEN-GRANT-HOOKER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-DEUEL-KEITH-LINCOLN- WESTERN CHERRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GORDON...RUSHVILLE... OSHKOSH... HYANNIS...MULLEN...ARTHUR...TRYON...CHAPPELL...BIG SPRINGS... OGALLALA...NORTH PLATTE...CODY...MERRIMAN...KILGORE 703 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009 /603 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2009/

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/
TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ MONDAY...
…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKY AND WIND BECOMING LIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS WEST OF A LINE FROM CODY IN CHERRY COUNTY...TO NORTH PLATTE IN LINCOLN COUNTY AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. IN THE PANHANDLE...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS EARLY AS 3 AM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

National Weather Service reports warnings and advisories for Wyoming.

000
WWUS73 KUNR 280350
NPWUNR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
950 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2009

SDZ001-002-012-013-025>027-030-031-041-042-072>074-WYZ054>056-058- 071-281400- /O.CON.KUNR.FR.Y.0002.090928T0900Z-090928T1400Z/ HARDING-PERKINS-BUTTE-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS- NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-RAPID CITY-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS- CUSTER CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-SHANNON- STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS- HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL- WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-NORTHEASTERN CROOK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...LEMMON...BISON... BELLE FOURCHE...FAITH...SPEARFISH...RAPID CITY...HOT SPRINGS... FOLSOM...WALL...EDGEMONT...PINE RIDGE...KYLE...STURGIS... UNION CENTER...HERMOSA...GILLETTE...WRIGHT...MOORCROFT...HULETT... NEWCASTLE...COLONY
950 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2009

…
A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM MDT MONDAY.

UNDER CLEAR SKIES... WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. FROST WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF FROST THAT CAN KILL SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS.

National Weather Service reports warnings and advisories for North Dakota.

000
FLUS43 KBIS 280234
HWOBIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
934 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-290245- DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY- BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS- 934 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009 /834 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM UNTIL 8 AM MDT. AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
…
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

National Weather Service reports warnings and advisories for South Dakota.

000
WWUS73 KUNR 280325
NPWUNR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
925 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2009

SDZ013-025-026-030-031-072>074-281400- /O.EXA.KUNR.FR.Y.0002.090928T0900Z-090928T1400Z/ NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-RAPID CITY- CUSTER CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS- SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAITH...SPEARFISH...RAPID CITY... FOLSOM...WALL...STURGIS...UNION CENTER...HERMOSA 925 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2009

[South Dakota]

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM MDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM MDT MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...ALLOWING FROST TO DEVELOP IN LOW LYING AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN LOW LYING AREAS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF FROST THAT CAN KILL SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS.

&&

SDZ001-002-012-027-041-042-WYZ054>056-058-071-281400- /O.CON.KUNR.FR.Y.0002.090928T0900Z-090928T1400Z/ HARDING-PERKINS-BUTTE-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-FALL RIVER-SHANNON- NORTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK-WESTON- NORTHEASTERN CROOK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...LEMMON...BISON... BELLE FOURCHE...HOT SPRINGS...EDGEMONT...PINE RIDGE...KYLE... GILLETTE...WRIGHT...MOORCROFT...HULETT...NEWCASTLE...COLONY 925 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2009

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM MDT MONDAY...
…
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...ALLOWING FROST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF FROST THAT CAN KILL SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS.

My reaction: Frost and freeze will begin hitting US crops in Nebraska and the Dakotas tonight. On Tuesday morning, Frost will hit an even great portion of Midwest.

Below are the USDA’s latest soybean production estimates. The more outrageous yield estimates are highlighted in red. The states about to experience frost or a killing freeze are highlighted in blue. The states likely to experience frost on Tuesday are highlighted in orange.

This again shows why USDA production numbers don’t match up to reality.