(once again gold breaks to a new high during the Hong Kong market...)
I ended up doing more research again and not rewriting the article. Tomorrow.
Here are a few more bits of news till I finish.
Commodity Online reports that soybean may trade higher on firm overseas market.
(emphasis mine) [my comment]
Soybean may trade higher on firm overseas market
2009-09-16 11:21:21
Fundamental Analysis
Soybean (NCDEX October Contract) futures opened higher in tandem with overseas market and made a high of 1968 levels. However, it could not sustained higher levels due to favorable weather for crop and arrivals of new crop started in Maharashtra and in some parts of Madhya Pradesh and managed to close slightly lower at 1947 levels.
As per USDA's weekly export sales report, this week's export sales were above average expectations for soybeans and meal and in line for oil. Soybean export sales were 830,600 tonne for 2009/10. [30.5 million bushels]
As of September 3, cumulative soybean sales stand at 49.2% of the USDA forecast for 2009/2010 versus a 5 year average of 23.1%.
USDA projection for soybean exports in 2008-9 | 1.265 | billion bushels | ||
Actual soybean exports in 2008-9 | 1.326 | billion bushels | ||
New crop sales as of August 20, 2008 | 271 | million bushels | ||
New crop sales as of August 20, 2009 | 477 | million bushels | ||
New crop sales as of September 3, 2009 | 622 | million bushels | ||
USDA projection for soybean exports in 2009-10 | 1.265 | billion bushels | ||
Delivery | OpInt | Change | Change in | ||
Month | Aug-28 | Sep-14 | in OpInt | Bushels | |
9-Sep | 774 | -774 | (3,870,000) | ||
9-Nov | 259020 | 253631 | -5389 | (26,945,000) | |
10-Jan | 64536 | 66917 | 2381 | 11,905,000 | Total new |
10-Mar | 27320 | 32509 | 5189 | 25,945,000 | soybean futures |
10-May | 22577 | 22803 | 226 | 1,130,000 | contracts sold |
10-Jul | 24473 | 30003 | 5530 | 27,650,000 | between Aug-28 |
10-Aug | 169 | 335 | 166 | 830,000 | and Sept-14 |
10-Sep | 81 | 85 | 4 | 20,000 | 40,535,000 |
10-Nov | 23630 | 24435 | 805 | 4,025,000 | |
11-Jan | 79 | 201 | 122 | 610,000 | |
11-Mar | 37 | 40 | 3 | 15,000 | |
11-May | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
11-Jul | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0 | |
11-Aug | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
11-Sep | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
11-Nov | 909 | 919 | 10 | 50,000 | |
12-Jul | 8 | 9 | 1 | 5,000 | |
12-Nov | 254 | 254 | 0 | 0 | |
Total | 423883 | 432157 | 8274 | 41,370,000 | |
Gold is now close to its all-time record of $1032 per ounce, reached a year and a half ago. It can also be noted that silver surged to above Ł10 recently, up from around Ł8.50 a couple of weeks ago.
Take your time with the big piece. It will be worth it.
What is the term for dollar devaluation against commodities and other currencies, yet deflation for domestic products such as US cars, real estate, and us made goods?
Central bankers claim that they are protecting us against inflation, but that is a lie. Fact is that the bankers' ultimate goal is to crash the currency - it will just increase the value of all the gold and silver, that they have taken from the people.
Ryu, I'm sorry but you are sadly mistaken.
It strange even the ticker guy is starting to believe that collapse is likely to happen...
He used to talk about how China de-pegging was a myth...
But now...
Wow he is really starting to take a much more "doom" like picture on everything....
I think everyone, who is an American or not, should watch this:
CAUTION: Monetary System Collapse
Dollar is now lower then where it was 52 weeks ago...
52 weeks ago it was at 76.063 now its at 76.043...
If this stays the course and doesn't fall from here...
Eric predicted this right...
Because back in February he stated that the dollar collapse would start around this time....
So, if it does stay up...
My hats off to you Eric...
Nice to see dollar collapsing, gold and silver rising.
Oil I'm fairly ambivalent about.
@dashxdr
Funny thing is, it came out of the blue...
Nothing seemed to provoke it (well one could argue that actions of the fed/gov the last year did)...
That is by every media outlet you will hear that things are starting stabilize...
Hey, I got another question.
Do you think when Obama increases the Fed's authority as part of his financial regulation overhaul, it will result in gold confiscation part II? (sorta like what happened when FDR signed the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 and centralized the power of the Treasury)
@Anonymous
I don't think it's out of the blue. We've had sustained buying for a long time. China even started encouraging its citizens to buy real things like silver and gold.
And with the COMEX / NYMEX exchanges heavily manipulated by fiat dollars, by naked short selling of nonexistent metal, the whole game had to end sometime, when there are physical shortages.
Antal Fekete has talked about the Last Contango, and how permanent Backwardation will be the norm.
Oh and the rumor that central banks are starting to buy gold.
And countries are pulling their gold deposits back from NY and The City so they can feel safer...
The list goes on and on. No reason for this? There are thousands.
How long will it last? Who knows. Pullbacks are common. Silver got up to $21 then headed down to $8. Ride it out! Like a wild, bucking bronko.
@James
There won't be gold confiscation ever again. It is unenforceable. People will hide their gold. No one with gold trusts this government.
Back in 1933 timeframe people believed the government.
@James
If it does it will make a lot go gold bugs pissed, and I don't blame them...
But again if it happens the fault is on the gold bugs...
The reason being, they never learned from history that our leaders are actually tyrants in disguise...
Which means they had more faith in the our government then they let on...
But don't tell them I said so...
LOL!
@dashxdr
"How long will it last? Who knows."
So are you suggesting that this is temporary?
@dashxdr
"People will hide their gold."
Government in the 30s found some of that hidden gold too...
Things are much easier today...
Every gold purchase can be tracked, that is unless you used cash to to pay for it and you bought it in a back ally...
Don't discount the paper and electronic trail you leave behind...
For this reason alone you will be taken into custody and kept their until you reveal your hiding spot...
Think it wont happen...
Then you really do have more faith in our leaders then you say you do...
@LOLAnon
Do we have to go over this again and again? You're perfectly welcome to cringe in fear of your government. Don't try to convince other people to be as afraid of the world as you clearly are.
As far as the other question about how long this run up of gold and silver and the fall in the dollar will last, the long term trend is
US Dollar down
Gold + Silver up
Short term there are always ups and downs. We've had a good run these last several weeks. A pullback would not be surprising.
I don't actively trade. I bought silver at $13 and have held it through $21 and down to $8, never selling. When I sell silver it will only be to exchange it for gold as the gold:silver ratio gets back to a more normal 15:1 range.
It's possible a panic may happen next week.
Dollar sliding against the Yen: http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/16/markets/yen_dollar_risk.reut/index.htm
@all
The dollar could gain again , soon. There are rumors in german blogs (hartgeld.com) that Deutsche Bank might be partially state owned in the next 1-2 weeks - before, at or shortly after the election.
If that happens, the german state will vouch for the silly games and bad debt of Deutsche Bank. That won't be good for the Euro.
@dashxdr
Why do you think the gold/silver ratio will go back to 1:15? Today's 1:50 ratio ought to reflect the overall quantity of the metals. Gold production reached its peak around year 2000, but the silver peak is yet not reached. Or am i wrong?
@Guile
Read Ted Butler's analysis for starters. The world's silver has been consumed, the actual aboveground stockpile of silver is essentially nil. Silver is used in all sorts of things. It's also a monetary metal.
Silver has the highest naked short selling open interest of any commodity. Next is gold. Why is this? Because silver and gold are the proof that fiat currencies are worthless. So central banks dump worthless fiat currencies on the corrupt COMEX, etc. exchanges and keep the prices down.
When this all unravels both silver and gold will rise to their true market prices. Historically speaking 15:1 gold:silver is far more common over 5,000 years of history. In the crust of the earth silver exists 19x (approx) as much as gold. So 60:1 is unrealistic.
I believe the central bank fiat masters fear silver more than gold, that's why it's suppressed more. The common man can invest in silver and get an impressive amount for a little money these days. Gold is always perceived as for the rich and for kings.
Read Ted Butler, he's been crusading against the manipulation for decades. Up and down the line there is corruption, in COMEX, CFTC, SEC, US government, Federal Reserve. It's all corrupt.
Thank you for the answer. I agree that silver rather than gold is for the common man. Silver coins were replaced by nickel coins around 40 years ago in many European countries, but before that, silver was common payment. I don't know if it was like that in the US too.
One question is, what did happen to the silver that were once in the coins, when that coins was brought out of circulation? I think that Ryu has a point in that the silver went to the bankers, and that the bankers therefore doesn't really care if their currency get worthless.
I say that the corruption is as widespread in Europe as in the US. The bankers are of the same kind and the governments support them. Not a single politician talks about bringing the silver back to the people.
Regarding the gold/silver ratio:
What interest would central banks have in keeping that ratio around the level of 60 instead of its more natural level of 15-30?
The defense of the fiat currencies only requires that gold and silver prices be kept low. It is not necessry for the gold/silver ratio to stay at any particular level in order to defend fiat currencies.
I think the truth is that the price ratio of 60 reflects the supply/demand balance of silver versus gold. Ted Butler is certainly right that there is little silver above ground, however, he could be spectacularly wrong regarding the amount of silver in the ground. Check out 321gold.com where Bob Moriarty makes some interesting comments about the reserves of Mexican silver mines. Also, check out Fekete's articles on silver where he convincingly explains why there is no shortage of silver. I think Ted Butler is simply wrong. There is plenty of silver around and that is the only possible explanation why silver is so cheap in comparison to gold.
Regarding what happened to the silver coins, people hoarded them. The pre-1966 or so coins are no longer in circulation, people collected them.
You can buy bags of these coins, they call them "junk silver coins" I think. Some people expect after the dollar collapses these coins will come out again as an item of exchange.
Regarding the theory that silver at 1/60th of gold's value is due to supply and demand, believe what you want to believe. I do, I'm sticking with my silver.