Below is the export sales data for US soybeans, straight from the USDA' s website. I highlighted in red the numbers that are worth noticing. Other things to consider when looking at this data:
1) Notice how many soybean sales were left outstanding at the end of 2008/09. The US sold far more soybean than it could deliver (at least at today' s prices).
2) Notice the huge number of new crop sales for July and August. This is what I mean when I say two months of demand for soybeans was moved from 2008/09 to 2009/10 as a result of USDA' s insane production estimates and other propaganda.
3) Use your imagination to fill in the numbers for the rest of 2009/10. Remember that Chinese demand for soybeans is only going to grow.
(all numbers are in metric tons)
Soybean Sales | |||||
Outstanding | Crop Year | ||||
2005/06 | 2006/07 | 2007/08 | 2008/09 | 2009/10 | |
September | 60,000 | 0 | 152,000 | 0 | 0 |
October | 63,000 | 0 | 152,000 | 19,500 | 1,500 |
November | 63,000 | 0 | 212,000 | 209,222 | 10,221 |
December | 63,000 | 146,000 | 225,607 | 354,575 | 26,368 |
January | 95,980 | 224,805 | 233,046 | 532,540 | 63,097 |
February | 113,693 | 453,960 | 334,646 | 570,213 | 157,949 |
March | 545,567 | 792,646 | 373,806 | 1,152,842 | 1,047,977 |
April | 853,722 | 2,553,851 | 958,785 | 1,278,232 | 2,520,691 |
May | 899,082 | 2,795,511 | 3,908,373 | 2,550,297 | 3,828,186 |
June | 1,232,947 | 3,256,711 | 4,084,253 | 5,053,919 | 4,678,812 |
July | 1,488,641 | 3,482,484 | 4,571,685 | 6,549,093 | 9,675,157 |
August | 2,932,473 | 5,101,281 | 6,814,244 | 7,598,538 | 14,094,637 |
harvest | |||||
September | 5,808,523 | 8,592,069 | 8,752,920 | 9,960,217 | 17,172,943 |
October | 5,672,494 | 7,852,785 | 8,069,255 | 10,002,895 | |
November | 3,926,043 | 7,068,143 | 9,797,062 | 8,026,235 | |
December | 4,375,065 | 6,886,248 | 9,040,562 | 6,850,823 | |
January | 4,402,627 | 6,778,030 | 7,985,713 | 6,359,168 | |
February | 3,406,156 | 5,217,091 | 6,137,709 | 4,705,346 | |
March | 1,785,507 | 3,789,388 | 4,380,553 | 3,954,487 | |
April | 1,508,889 | 2,666,557 | 4,210,197 | 4,851,279 | |
May | 1,808,506 | 2,391,829 | 3,590,785 | 4,442,858 | |
June | 1,943,079 | 2,189,904 | 2,786,885 | 3,333,238 | |
July | 1,841,694 | 2,149,014 | 2,223,125 | 3,163,503 | |
August | 813,820 | 946,268 | 888,059 | 2,216,016 | |
Net Montly | |||||
Soybean Sales | Crop Year | ||||
2005/06 | 2006/07 | 2007/08 | 2008/09 | 2009/10 | |
September | 60,000 | 0 | 152,000 | 0 | 0 |
October | 3,000 | 0 | 0 | 19,500 | 1,500 |
November | 0 | 0 | 60,000 | 189,722 | 8,721 |
December | 0 | 146,000 | 13,607 | 145,353 | 16,147 |
January | 32,980 | 78,805 | 7,439 | 177,965 | 36,729 |
February | 17,713 | 229,155 | 101,600 | 37,673 | 94,852 |
March | 431,874 | 338,686 | 39,160 | 582,629 | 890,028 |
April | 308,155 | 1,761,205 | 584,979 | 125,390 | 1,472,714 |
May | 45,360 | 241,660 | 2,949,588 | 1,272,065 | 1,307,495 |
June | 333,865 | 461,200 | 175,880 | 2,503,622 | 850,626 |
July | 255,694 | 225,773 | 487,432 | 1,495,174 | 4,996,345 |
August | 1,443,832 | 2,992,458 | 2,242,559 | 1,049,445 | 4,419,480 |
Sales Outstanding | |||||
from prior year | 624,737 | 813,820 | 946,268 | 888,059 | 2,216,016 |
September | 2,987,880 | 2,740,257 | 2,271,755 | 1,954,888 | 1,319,934 |
October | 3,176,840 | 3,218,664 | 2,489,370 | 4,701,103 | |
November | 1,719,113 | 3,654,749 | 5,640,108 | 2,410,562 | |
December | 3,546,560 | 3,009,011 | 2,667,393 | 2,798,938 | |
January | 2,695,319 | 2,978,559 | 3,271,693 | 4,078,793 | |
February | 1,919,008 | 2,204,310 | 1,745,406 | 2,658,176 | |
March | 1,694,082 | 2,070,288 | 1,250,329 | 2,008,950 | |
April | 832,720 | 772,245 | 1,748,304 | 3,345,926 | |
May | 1,301,466 | 1,054,696 | 1,169,469 | 1,292,335 | |
June | 1,338,775 | 1,012,944 | 641,091 | 306,218 | |
July | 928,331 | 799,457 | 958,878 | 1,481,209 | |
August | 626,792 | 430,615 | (276,779) | 545,911 | |
Total Sales | 26,324,096 | 31,234,557 | 31,337,529 | 36,069,606 | 17,630,587 |
Total Exports | 25,510,276 | 30,288,289 | 30,449,470 | 33,853,590 | 457,644 |
Sales Outstanding | 813,820 | 946,268 | 888,059 | 2,216,016 | 17,172,943 |
= Partial month | |||||
Assuming soybean sales are slightly higher than last year, export sales will be more than 45,000,000 MT for the 2009/10. Even if the US produces the record crop the USDA is predicting (which will not happen), soybean prices are still headed higher. After all, the US couldn' t even find enough soybeans to make good on the 36,069,606 MT they sold last year.
Soybean exports | Crop Year | ||||
2005/06 | 2006/07 | 2007/08 | 2008/09 | 2009/10 | |
September | 736,567 | 1,436,950 | 1,279,347 | 481,268 | 457,644 |
October | 3,312,869 | 3,957,948 | 3,173,035 | 4,658,425 | |
November | 3,465,564 | 4,439,391 | 3,912,301 | 4,387,222 | |
December | 3,097,538 | 3,190,906 | 3,423,893 | 3,974,350 | |
January | 2,667,757 | 3,086,777 | 4,326,542 | 4,570,448 | |
February | 2,915,479 | 3,765,249 | 3,593,410 | 4,311,998 | |
March | 3,314,731 | 3,497,991 | 3,007,485 | 2,759,809 | |
April | 1,109,338 | 1,895,076 | 1,918,660 | 2,449,134 | |
May | 1,001,849 | 1,329,424 | 1,788,881 | 1,700,756 | |
June | 1,204,202 | 1,214,869 | 1,444,991 | 1,415,838 | |
July | 1,029,716 | 840,347 | 1,522,638 | 1,650,944 | |
August | 1,654,666 | 1,633,361 | 1,058,287 | 1,493,398 | |
Total Exports | 25,510,276 | 30,288,289 | 30,449,470 | 33,853,590 | 457,644 |
= Partial month | |||||
US Soybean | |||||
Production | 83,507,000 | 87,001,000 | 72,859,000 | 80,536,000 | 88,322 |
= Bogus USDA estimate for 2009/10 production | |||||
These numbers should make clear that if the USDA estimates turn out to be creative fiction (and they will), there will be severe shortage of soybeans over the coming year.
Thanks for this Eric
Will look into buying soybeans towards the end of the year
I wonder what the naysayers of global warming have to say now? Everyone forgets that the main problem we'll experience with global warming is very erratic weather. It doesn't mean that everything gradually gets warmer and the ice caps melt over time. We're seeing shifts in ocean currents and temperatures (goodbye fish), the spreading of insects and parasites (goodbye plants and trees), and probably a fight over the remaining food and drinkable water. I would worry less about investing and more about eating.