10 Responses to Time Table For 2009/10 Food Crisis

1. Anonymous says:

   September 22, 2009 at 9:28 am

   So if I understand what you been saying Eric...

   The dollar collapse should be sealed by next year, given that a shortage in soy and wheat are to trigger it...

   Is that correct?

   Reply
2. Anonymous says:

   September 22, 2009 at 10:06 am

   On Noggers Blog: the Nog-o-Meter is at SELL for Wheat/Corn/Soyabeans.

   Reply
3. Anonymous says:

   September 22, 2009 at 9:31 pm

   Well the dollar has reached a new 52 week low...

   The dollar currently sits at 75.965...

   Gold is approaching 1020 again...

   And thanks Eric for answering my question...

   Reply
4. Eric deCarbonnel says:

   September 23, 2009 at 5:09 am

   mr pinnion said...
   Thanks for taking the time to answeer my question Eric.

   No problem, but I am a little annoyed about it.

   Its hard to believe Brazil was preparing to buy soybeans from US when there was none to buy.

   They would have tried to buy, and they would have failed to find any at a reasonable price, resulting in panic and hoarding.

   Seems hard to believe china cancelled big order bacause of lies in the media,(dont they do there own research?).

   China didn't cancel orders because of lies in the media, China cancelled orders because they could buy November soybeans at 40% discount to the cash price of August/September soybeans. One of the major reasons November soybeans were so cheap compared to August/September soybeans was the expectation of a huge US harvest.

   Seems hard to believe US soybeans growers, producers would be taken in by USDA missinformation.

   Supply and demand management is almost STANDARD PROCEDURE for most government. India told its people there was no problem despite lack of monsoon rain this year, and did everything in their power to reassure the public. Now the 2008/09 growing season is over, and the government is in a complete panic. The last thing a government wants, any government including the US, is for people to start hoarding food.

   They ,of all people should know what the supply and harvest/shortage situation is like. Its their job!. dont they comunicate with other farmers?.

   Yes they should know what the supply and harvest/shortage situation, but, Ozimandis, what do US soybeans growers and producers know about China and the probability of default on its soybean derivatives? The media was filled with stories attacking soybeans from many differant angles. Also, when the entire US media is filled with stories of crashing soybean prices and record harvest, that might be enough to scare someone who knows what supply situation is.

   Well you have kicked the default can down the road a few months again.

   ??? I never said that soybean default was guarranteed, I said that September soybean and October sugar contracts were the most likely to default. September Soybeans came very, very close to it.

   Thats the trouble with making bold predictions. The can turn out to be wrong and lower your credability (rightly or wrongly).

   I never predicted the dollar collapse happen this September, I said it would begin this September. Considering the dollar just hit a new 52 week low and gold is at 1020 (September isn't over either), isn't that called being right?

   Are you saying the dollar will collapse next year ,(unless the US tell some more lies in the media?).

   No, the dollar collapse has already begun. I am saying that food shortages will peak next year (by the time this happens, the dollar willl already be in a freefall). Food prices will start reaching new highs in November/December of this year.

   ... my opinnion changes with the accuracy of your predictions.

   Again, the US ran out of soybeans at the end of august, dollar at 52 week low, gold over 1000... Exactly what is your problem with the accuracy of my predictions?

   Its starting to remind me of those religious ,end of the world types who say its going to end today.

   Don't conpare my blog to a religious cult.

   A tad unfair maybe but you cant say the US ran out of soybeans, as long as you disscount lots of things that happened to make them not run out.

   There is no fair or unfair: the US ran out of soybeans at the end of August. Some desperate end users were paying 14.0791 cents per bushel to buy it on August 28 (a 24% premium to September soybean contract and a 40% premium to the November contract). That is exactly what I was expecting and looking for. If the shortage and 24% premium had been allowed to continue, you would have seen defaults on the September contract. It was only just barely avoided.

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5. Anonymous says:

   September 23, 2009 at 7:24 am

   Eric,

   You have to realize one thing...

   All of us that come here and read your blog, and especially those that leave messages, know that there is something special about your analysis...

   And it maybe hard for some of us, at least it is for me at times, to fully understand the logic behind the connections that you make...

   And the confusion is only increased when one juxtaposes your statements against dominate media and market sources...

   It's never a question about trusting you or the things that you say...

   Its more about how do these statements reflect what I see happening, and what I know to be happening...

   Because in the end its not about you or what you know, but about how each of us go about making decisions for ourselves...

   Every human is risk aversive Eric...

   So when you see a reader leave comments about this or that...

   Don't look at it as an attack, but as a plea to help us understand what it is you really are trying to say and how you make the connections that you do...

   And yes thank you, Eric, for the time that you spend to make this blog, for it does indeed help us understand more then what is given to us by dominate media and market sources...

   Reply
6. Alex says:

   September 23, 2009 at 10:46 am

   It's about trends, not just soybeans and wheat, but everything else going on as well. How system is unfolding/unravelling and where it is going. Meaning and Metaphors. Going to be a wild ride.

   Reply
7. Natasa says:

   September 23, 2009 at 11:13 pm

   Here is another very interesting blog from German economist dr. Berninger:
   http://www.berninger.de/home.html

   and his video blog:
   http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=jberni1#play/uploads/0/64AP2n1k0ms

   It looks that his conclusions are quite similar with Erics and (as I understand) his analyzes from couple years ago - were proved correct.

   Reply
8. Anonymous says:

   October 8, 2009 at 9:49 am

   Eric

   You are a joker - This stuff belongs in the circus. Stop cutting and pasting from Nogger and make it up yourself.

   Reply
9. Anonymous says:

   October 16, 2009 at 9:21 am

   Eric, I think your research is good. Your critics should understand more about how the governments work. Just because the price of soybeans dropped does not mean your predictions of a tight market were wrong. The bottom line as you stated is the market was short 2 million bushels of soy. The governments of Brazil and China backed off and the USDA worked to calm market fears. The result is all seems normal until reality arrives. You can hide the truth for a while, but, some time in the near future (1-3 years) without some huge increases in production the world is going face a food shortage. Your view points are shared by Jim Rogers: A catastrophe is looming. "The world is going to have a period when we cannot get food at any price in some parts of the world."

   Reply
10. sf_jeff says:

    December 29, 2009 at 10:30 pm

    I'm a bit confused by an earlier comment. The poster said that a soybean shortage would cause the dollar to collapse. I would expect that if anything a soybean shortage would put upward pressure on the dollar. Which way would it go?

    Reply