Finishing Major Article

I have been working on finishing the major article I have been working on for a couple of months now. I have made real progress, and the article is virtually done. It should be published within 24 hours.

UPDATE: October 27, 2009 8:37 PM

Again, not done. I was hoping to at least publish a final draft today, but I have decided to wait till tomorrow.

Check back in 24 hours, sorry.

This entry was posted in Important_Announcement. Bookmark the permalink.

35 Responses to Finishing Major Article

  1. excellent. We await your work.

    Even so, the piece on poor weather conditions for crops was extremely important as well. Not enough food and skyrocketing food prices destroy lives at the bottom of the food chain. A real tragedy.

  2. dashxdr says:

    Speaking of rising food prices, sugar has been an off and on topic in Eric's blog as I recall. 50 pound bags of sugar are now around $24 at CostCo whereas they were $18 not too long ago.

    It would probably be a good idea to buy up some staple foods that have a long shelf life, just in case...

  3. Anonymous says:

    I'm from the midwest with alot of buddies who farm for a living. Guys are getting very nervous as the wet weather has put them way behind. Moisture content in the corn is VERY high and beans are not much better.
    I see nothing good about the harvest this year in my area.

  4. Trader says:

    Dollar bounce again last night. USDX is now at 76 again, after failed to break 75.

    Will it rebound to 80's again soon??

  5. Guile says:

    Is it a good idea to borrow money to buy gold now before the real financial crisis starts?

  6. Jane says:

    Guile, it's a terrible idea.. You are insane borrowing money betting for an unknown fortune.

  7. Jane says:

    But if you have too much cash, buy some physical gold maybe not a bad idea. Just in case...

  8. Guile says:

    But as long as the yearly gold price increase is greater than the actual interest rate, as has been the case in the past (ten or so) years, it looks like a good deal to me. But it may not be fun to be stuck with large loans if interest rates go way up. On the other hand, in such a scenario, gold ought to go up a lot too.

  9. Anonymous says:

    @Guile

    Gold prices will collapse soon...

  10. Ryu says:

    No they will not. They will skyrocket!

  11. Anonymous says:

    Gold is a hedge against the dollar. How can the dollar go up. This country is 100 percent insolvent with no productive capacity to ever pay its bills. My 3rd grader can figure this out!!

    The dollar is already dead, its just everyone in the world is trying to figure out how to unwind their positions without creating panic. Its a big house of cards with everyone who understands whats really goin on trying to slowly pull their cards out. One day someone is going to pull to hard to quick and things will get very interesting.

  12. Anonymous says:

    I feel sorry for you guys who are buying into Pms at this time...

    You will regret it later on....

  13. Anonymous says:

    Could someone explain to me why and how PM's will crash over the next year?? Just a couple on parargraphs as to why, please.

  14. Anonymous says:

    If you need someone to explain to you, then your mind is already closed to the fact that it could happen.

  15. Anonymous says:

    24 hours ! Where is the post ? I am anxious ! lol !

  16. dashxdr says:

    PM's can't crash. They can drift up and down, can even experience bubbles, but there is always their intrinsic value which cannot go to zero.

    Paper dollars, on the other hand, can crash because their intrinsic value is zero.

    And by "crash" I mean going to zero value.

    PM's are much better to hold than dollars. At any moment the dollar could collapse. Too bad if you had all your wealth sitting in dollars in a bank account. Poof!

    That can never happen with PM's.

    Meanwhile PM's are actively manipulated by the fiat currency regime (Federal Reserve, et al). So their price is held down. This manipulation will end soon. Particularly when all the physical gold and silver has been bought by the public.

    Endless stories of COMEX scrambling to meet delivery. Of LME offering 125% to buyback contracts where the long position holder wanted delivery. There is no more real metal left to manipulate the price!

    It's a wonderful time to buy PM's. These little pullbacks -- consider them a gift. Lock in a lower price, place your order, take delivery.

    Physical PM's are a long term play. Years to decades. If you want to trade the volatility, play in SLV or GLD, but know you're only in the paper market.

    From personal experience I feel nervous having cash in the bank or in stocks. I only feel more secure the more physical PM's I have under my control. That peace of mind is worth a lot in these crazy times.

  17. Shin says:

    latin america is already leaving the dollar.. so once china leaves the dollar, what would happen? go figure?

  18. anoinmouse says:

    Another reason why pms cant crash: old silver coins etc can always be used as payment at the value that is written on them. They can never be worth less than that.

  19. Anonymous says:

    The messenger knocks, but the hearts and minds of those that should listen have become hardened and closed...

    You want proof, but there shall be no signs given to the children of the deaf and blind...

    Make no mistake...

    The truth shall come like a thief in the night...

    When that day comes, and soon it will, you will find no escape...

    "O Fortune,

    like the moon
    you are changeable,
    ever waxing and waning;

    hateful life
    first oppresses
    and then soothes
    as fancy takes it;

    poverty and power
    it melts them like ice.

    Fate –

    monstrous and empty,
    you whirling wheel,
    you are malevolent,

    well-being is vain
    and always fades to nothing,
    shadowed and veiled
    you plague me too;

    now through the game
    I bring my bare back
    to your villainy.

    Fate is against me
    in health and virtue,
    driven on and weighted down,
    always enslaved.

    So at this hour without delay
    pluck the vibrating strings;

    since Fate strikes down the string man,
    everyone weep with me!
    "

    Carl Orff: O Fortuna

    In the end you will come despise the day you thought you could control your own destiny!

    Now knowing this truth you have been marked...

  20. dashxdr says:

    Eric how about keeping up with deleting the noise comments from your blog?

  21. Anonymous says:

    @all Anon's

    Its funny... its always anon's in the blogs I know that write against gold ownership and say that gold will crash.

    Asked after their reasoning there is never a reply and if then its that if you ask that question then it is anyway to late for you.. blah, blah, blah.

    I'm interested in all aspects, but if you investigate into the topic no fundamental reasoning against gold it is hard to find hard evidence against it.

    Even if the price of gold starts to fall 50% before it hits the next hights, with stocks and derivates it is much simpler to loose 50% or more of the nominal value, with the risk of loosing everything.

    People have to understand gold as buying power preservation, but not as a speculative asset. This is always the biggest confusion for people that are new to the idea of gold.

    For more educative articles concerning gold i suggest FOFOA.

    Bernie

  22. Numonic says:

    I'm not surprised the metals(silver and gold) prices dropped. It's price rise had more to do with emerging market buying than the dollar collapse as some people say. When the dollar collapse has it's effect on gold and silver, the price will rise allot higher and faster. The end of the US dollar's seigniorage is coming. I can't say when but from what's going on, it seems imminent. One major thing that has to happen to make me feel differently: The Fed has to close it's discount window and raise the Fed Fund's Rate. Not saying this will be a cause for the dollar collapse quite the contrary, it's the reason the dollar hasn't collapsed yet. If they are able to discontinue this, it means that the dollar collapse has been avoided.

  23. Numonic says:

    The dollar hasn't collapsed because what the Fed is doing is preventing it.

  24. James says:

    @Numonic

    Tell that to Mike Whitney :-)

  25. Matheus says:

    Correction, Dollar hasn´t collapsed yet, because of China.

  26. Numonic says:

    That's also true Matheus, basically anything that is bringing Federal Reserve Notes in to US banks is preventing(or rather stalling) the US dollar's collapse.

    You guys know the whole deal with Deposit Reclassification right. And you know the situation with the bank's excess reserves. The way I see it is that Deposit Reclassification causes there to be a difference of nominal reserve requirements and REAL reserve requirements. The excess reserves are the reserves that are more than the reserve requirements. But if there are no reserve requirements(due to this deposit reclassification), then it's no surprise excess reserves have grown so much. And I know they've been doing it since 1994 and the chart only shows excess reserves going crazy recently(within the last 2 years) but you have to consider that it's related to lending(consider the spike in excess reserves in 2001 due to the recession then). If there is massive lending going on, the lending will counteract the effects of the deposit reclassification and 0 reserve requirements and the excess reserves will not show up on the chart, but when there is a credit crunch, the excess reserves show up. But it doesn't really mean the banks have massive amounts of cash on hand, even though the banks are being flooded with cash from the Fed, China and the FDIC, the major reason why excess reserves are so high is because lending(and assets, which are loan assets) has dropped so low. So the charts show excess reserves as if the banks really have enough cash but you can't trust excess reserves because deposit reclassification eliminates reserve requirements essentially making excess reserves no different from the monetary base(but of course less because banks still have leverage). But if you were to liquidate all the banks assets, you would see that excess reserves would be equal to the monetary base because deposit reclassification basically eliminates reserve requirements. If there were reserve requirements of 10%(considering the banks had no leverage at all), the excess reserves would be 10% less than the monetary base. But due to deposit reclassification eliminating reserve requirements the excess reserves would be exactly equal to the monetary base. And although the monetary base has been growing massively recently, i still think the banks don't have enough cash to meet deposits. You're probably asking what makes me believe that this is the situation. Well it's simple, there is no other reason to be increasing the monetary base. The banks do not require reserves to lend, they've proven that with the deposit reclassification but it's obvious when you realize all that it takes to lend is the stroke of a key on a computer keyboard. If/When the monetary base stabilizes(discontinues it's rise) and the Fed closes it's discount window, that's when I'll believe the US bank's solvency problem has been avoided. Until that happens I'm preparing for the chance that it won't happen and the banks default, essentially ending the Federal Reserve Note's seigniorage and exposing hyperinflation. The end of seigniorage means bringing the currency to it's intrinsic value, so in order for holders of the specific currency to protect themselves from that, they hold things with better intrinsic value. In today's currency case, anything you value more than small amounts of cotton-linen, copper-nickel and zinc. There are many things to choose from that I value more than small amounts of those things(like food, clothing, shelter etc) but if I want to profit I will hold the things that are most valuable(precious metals: specifically silver). Why do I say that precious metals are more valuable than those other things? because without precious metals we wouldn't be able to produce those other things.

  27. dashxdr says:

    OH MY GOD. SILVER IS COLLAPSING! I'VE GOT TO SELL IT ALL BEFORE I LOSE EVERYTHING.

    Finally I've discovered the error of my ways. Boy is my face red! I now regret ever thinking precious metals were a good investment. I regret not listening to the wisdom of LOLAnon when I had the chance.

    I bitterly rue the day I ever invested in silver. I'd better sell all my silver and hang onto dollars, because I have it on good authority that the dollar index is going back up to 82.
    [/sarcasm]

  28. Anonymous says:

    @dashxdr

    Fate isn't biased in who it will ruin...

    You may laugh now, but it will be to late when you finally come to know...

    The truth!

    To paraphrase Maurice Maeterlinck:

    As humans we are an ignorant species, for our creativity and quest for knowledge merely helps us to die a more painful death than animals that know nothing...

    dashxdr, the time is near...

    Your down fall will come by the folly in believing that your own hand be steady...

    Oh yes...

    Indeed, it will...

  29. Seymour says:

    Prediction:

    Eric's next "article" will be at least 75% cut-and-pasted from somewhere else. Anyone care to bet me on this?

  30. dashxdr says:

    75% cut-and-pasted from somewhere else

    I'll take that bet. I believe it'll be closer to 80%.

  31. Anonymous says:

    The issue of cut & past...

    I think that those that bemoan this presentation model haven't gotten what this blog is about...

    It's my opinion that this this blog is about the information out there that...

    (1) postulates trends that are not widely known (for example the info on agriculture)...

    (2) informs the reader about geo-political currency movements of other nations (Yuan for example)...

    (3) exposes the monetization of debt by the fed and its consequences...

    and (4) to supposedly give new investment(s) opportunities...

    Highlights from the sources could be seen as quotations in an essay, paper...

    Regardless how you look at this...

    That there is to may raw quotations from source...

    Matters not...

    For Eric does expand on that information (within the source and at the end of it) to postulate an entirely different position, at times, (or to reassert the position of the source) from where the sources come...

    It may not be the academic/journalistic way for knowledge transfer...

    But none-the-less knowledge is being transfered to the reader (rightly or wrongly)...

  32. Anonymous says:

    Dear people:

    Inflation is not the only problem, but also the dangers of the radical Islam: Be warned, the videomaterial is very schocking. Not for weak hearts...

    http://barenakedislam.wordpress.com/2009/10/26/if-britain-does-not-ban-the-muslim-pro-sharia-march-on-oct-31st-there-will-be-riots-in-the-streets/

    http://www.truthtube.tv/play.php?vid=1807 (riots in the street of London by muslimgangs)

    http://www.truthtube.tv/play.php?vid=2133 (Woman beheaded, by muslims... VERY SCHOCKING)

    http://www.truthtube.tv/play.php?vid=599 (serie of cruels penalties)

    http://www.truthtube.tv/play.php?vid=3092 (Crazy pedophiles...)

    And many sick video's...

    If this could result to a clash of civilizations in London and the rest of Europe, your fiatmoney would be worthless... Only gold could be the real money...

    Also a reason to move out of Europe, with the muslim population growth (2025 --> 25% of Europe would be changed in an Islamnation, by next generation young muslims)...

    Greetz

    Y

  33. Numonic says:

    I don't care how low silver goes, as long as the currency I'm getting paid in is made of some of the most worthless things on earth, I'll continue to hold silver. Because at anytime the seigniorage of the currency can end and the currency can be worth it's intrinsic value.

    Worst case scenario is that this is NOT the end of the US dollar's seigniorage and that all the printing and borrowing will be enough to fix the bank's solvency problem and we return to being the consumers, China discontinues it's domestic growth and returns to being the producers and we continue with the way we used to be. The sad thing is the banks control everything. China's economy remained suppressed because of their banks putting themselves in the position we are currently in as far as decreasing lending. The banks control that. Wages remain the same while prices get high enough to the point you can't afford some things without a loan, they keep us dependent on their loans so anytime they want us to stop spending, they just shut the money faucet off.

    Unlike some other people, I don't believe that when the banks see that everything is okay that they will go crazy with loans based on the increased monetary base. The banks won't go through all this work now to save the dollar only to destroy it through loans. What most likely will happen is that after the economy drops more and more removing more and more people from employment and causing them to deplete their bank accounts, there will be less need for the currently larger monetary base and the Fed will sell those assets back to the banks(at depressed prices) and remove some of the cash they put in the banks. Not that they really need to do this, in fact the US dollar's seigniorage has been able to live longer because of the increased monetary base. As far as lending goes, it doesn't matter how much monetary base there is because lending neither is obligated to be done in physical cash or at all. The monetary base is only for those that use physical cash. The monetary base could be 0 and banks can still continue lending because most if not all lending is electronic and there is no obligation for lending to be done with physical cash. The banks control lending, they don't have to lend at all if they don't want to. Transactions are a different issue. Some people may choose to do some transactions with physical cash and it is the obligation of the banks to supply those people with the physical cash. The banks continually fulfilling this obligation is the reason the US dollar retains it's seigniorage. Failing to meet this obligation will cause the dollar to loose seigniorage, as did happen in every hyperinflation in history.

    As far as where silver and gold would go from there, well it probably won't go anywhere as people treat the physical silver and gold like they treat the physical currency and only hold derivatives(electronic form) of them instead of the physical. If the end of the US dollar's seigniorage is to be avoided(by the printing and borrowing), the great rush to the physical metals will have been avoided. But even if this happens, i still think it's essential to hold some physical silver because as I said in the start, at anytime the currency's seigniorage can end and cause the currency to be worth it's intrinsic value. And as long as the currency is made of things with some of the worst intrinsic value on earth, you'll be wise to hold something with better intrinsic value. Basically it's insurance, but more like the best insurance policy.

    If you're wondering why I put this in two blog articles, i originally meant to put it in here but that guy that looks like he is spamming with those terrorist videos confused me.

  34. Anonymous says:

    @Numonic,

    No, it is not my goal to spam here. It was an error with posting. Therefore this article was not published here, then I tried it on an other discussion... Yes, now it is posted twice, it looks like spamming. Sorry.

    Grtz

    Y

  35. Anonymous says:

    And a nice posting also, numonic.

    Y

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>