Martell Crop Projections reports that US Weather Forecast is Very Wet.
(emphasis mine) [my comment]
US Weather Forecast is Very Wet -- Thursday, October 22
It is raining cats and dogs in Central United States today drenching farms that are already soggy from a wave train of storms this month. After this storm clears through another one will take its place. The weekend forecast continues soggy with more rain on tap.
A wave of heavy rainfall extended from Louisiana into Nebraska and Iowa at noon today. Showers have expanded across the Mississippi valley into Wisconsin and Illinois.
October month-to-date rainfall was heavy even before the rain today. Minnesota had already received 5 inches of rain, Illinois, Missouri and southern Indiana, 6-7 inches. Mississippi and Arkansas have received 10 inches of rain in some areas.
The rain forecast for today will certainly verify with 1.75 to 4 inches in the purple swath from Louisiana to Illinois. A solid inch of rain will soak the Northern Midwest, perhaps changing to wet snow in Minnesota tonight.
A soggy day is in store for the Eastern Midwest tomorrow, though rainfall will be relatively less than today.
Another weather disturbance will follow rapidly on the heels of this one. This one was expected to be weak but the latest guidance from the GFS model indicates it may be quite strong. A cold trough in the jet stream would give upper-air support to a surface storm in the Mississippi Valley:
When both storms are considered the 84-hour Midwest forecast becomes very wet:
Deltafarmpress reports that Rains swamp crops.
Rains swamp crops
Oct 21, 2009 10:14 AM, By David Bennett, Farm Press Editorial Staff
Corn will suffer from quality issues. Soybeans will have significant quality and yield losses if harvested. Rice will suffer quality and yield losses with much of the crop is on the ground. Cotton crop will suffer yield and quality losses and cottonseed will have essentially no value.
On Sept. 10, some 75 percent of Mississippi's 800,000-acre corn crop had been harvested.
FLOODED CORN field in Washington County, Miss. (Photo: Delta Council)
Bolstering this is a fact-sheet released the week of Oct. 12 by Delta Council. The release says, "Large areas of the Mississippi Delta have received 15 to 20 inches of rain over the last 30 days with many areas receiving 25 to 40 inches of rainfall over the past 60 days since Aug. 15. In places this is anywhere from 400 to over 600 percent of normal."
The Delta Council release also quotes Steve Martin, interim head of the Delta Research and Extension Center (DREC) in Stoneville, Miss.: "Crop conditions are rapidly deteriorating. The USDA weather service at Stoneville reports that October has seen the second highest level of rainfall ever recorded (record was set in 1941). Several previous research efforts have documented the days suitable for field work in the area.
"However, with the rainfall in September and now October, producers that are able to harvest any of the remainder of their crop will be fortunate. The remainder of the corn crop will no doubt suffer from quality issues. The soybean crop will have significant quality (up to 50 percent of the value) and yield losses if harvested. Rice will also suffer quality and yield losses as much of the crop is on the ground. The cotton crop will suffer yield and quality losses as well with essentially no value being obtained for the cottonseed (two-bale cotton would normally have $150 per acre in cottonseed value)."
Delta Council points out it has rained "measurable amounts on 29 out of 57 days at the Stoneville rain gauge. If you say, conservatively, that half of those rain days caused a farmer to lose the 'day after the rain' as well, it is estimated that we have had only 15 days on average fit to harvest 4 million acres of cropland in the region since Aug. 15."
Back in the corn crop, Larson says growers are beginning to see "a lot more" stalk lodging occurring. That's happening as the stalks deteriorate and more recent storms have brought in stronger winds. Larson expects crop losses to begin accumulating.
What about sprouting?
"We're continuing to see it. The last week of September, farmers were saying the sprouting and kernel damage weren't excessive or substantial. Obviously, the problem has probably increased since then. That's largely because of extremely frequent rainfall — including getting rains daily for four days in a r ow."
Larson's best guess is "we'll see losses at least 10 to 20 percent above what the crop had prior to early September. And that percentage could be substantially higher if lodging or sprouting continues to increase."
As for Mississippi's 13,000-acre of grain sorghum crop, about 50 percent was harvested prior to mid-September. "By now, I'm pretty sure what's left is destined to be abandoned or fed to livestock locally. It's unlikely to be fit for the commercial market."
Channel3000 reports that Farmers Racing Against Mother Nature.
Farmers Racing Against Mother Nature
Cool, Wet Weather Causing Problems For Soybean Farmers
Updated: 12:33 pm CDT October 22, 2009
MADISON, Wis. -- The recent rainy and cool weather is throwing area farmers into a race against Mother Nature.
Farmers said if the weather doesn't start cooperating, the soybean crop could be in jeopardy.
Dane County farmers are only 20 percent done with the soybean harvest. Typically by now, they'd be done.
"It is the most difficult harvest season that I can remember," said David Fischer, a Dane County extension agent. "The worst case scenario right now, if we continue to stay wet, we have a struggle getting the soybean harvest out. If it turns cold and we get some snow that would be the ultimate worst case scenario. Getting that harvest completed at that point in time is going to be difficult, if not impossible."
Farmers said they're hoping for a string of no-rain, 60-degree days. If the weather doesn't turn around, experts said the consumers could see some price jumps at the store.
"Vegetable oils, soy diesel, anything made out of soybean, we could see a price increase," Fischer said.
The Desmoines Register reports that Corn, soybean price spikes grab farmers' attention.
Corn, soybean price spikes grab farmers' attention
By DAN PILLER — firstname.lastname@example.org — October 22, 2009
Corn prices had unexpectedly shot up to near $4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, up from just above $3 a few weeks ago. Soybeans had topped the $10 mark, compared with a recent price of $8.80.
The prices were up this week primarily because wet weather has slowed the harvest in the Midwest to a degree not seen since the early 1970s, according to government calculations.
Farmer Dustin Anderson of West Branch said he rushed loads of soybeans to Mississippi River processors Wednesday to take advantage of good prices. He noted that cash prices, which are almost always lower than futures prices, were unusually strong Wednesday.
"They're paying cash premiums for beans that are unheard of," Anderson said Wednesday.
Another broker, Sue Martin of Ag and Investment Services in Webster City, said processing and ethanol plants were caught off guard because they hadn't bought corn in advance.
"Everybody focused all summer on the big crop that supposedly was coming in," [See? The USDA mislead the world on US crop production, which is now predictably making the shortage worse] Martin said. "The worry was about frost, which actually didn't do much damage.
"Suddenly, the greater problem is the slow harvest, which has slowed the flow of grain to end users."
Below are the comments made during the last five days from Agweb's October Crop Comments.
October Crop Comments
Here's a sampling of what some folks are saying:
10/23 - Haskell County, Southwest Kansas: Typically we have an open, dry harvest, but this year is different. Off and on rain is keeping harvest slowed. Wheat off to a great start. Feed yards have been full of high moisture corn for weeks. Letting the dry corn dry down but it's been slow. A lot of hail this year with some consultants claiming that only 15% of the corn they check has had no hail whatsoever. Everything else had hail damage to some degree, from minimal to totaled out. Many of the irrigated circles are reporting 245 bpa on up. Some documented fields (I'm a crop adjuster and these are across the scale numbers) have been in the 298 to 303 area across the entire field. It will get dry here and the corn will come off. The bigger concern is the Milo crop. It's ready, fields are wet, and the end of October is here which may mean a lot of it might be lost. Every elevator is planning on dumping corn and Milo on the ground and the piles have already started.
10/23 - Mississippi: A very wet September and October left most of the state's soil saturated, as many places have had gotten rain in almost statistically impossible quantities.
Non-stop rains since harvest began have cost Mississippi producers an estimated $371 million. These cotton plants stand wasting in a rain-saturated field on Mississippi State University's R.R. Foil Plant Science Research Facility. (Photo by MSU Ag Communications/Scott Corey)
Excessive fall rains have saturated 91% of the state's soil, leaving many crops stranded and wasting in fields too wet for harvest equipment to enter. Water stands between most rows of this soybean field in western Lowndes County. (Photo by MSU Ag Communications/Scott Corey)
10/23 - East Berlin, Penn.: I finished harvesting my corn at 18% and soybeans at 14% moisture. I planted early with the expectation to harvest early, but the weather just didn't cooperate. I got a 150 bushel corn average and 50 bushel soybean. Most of the area corn and soybeans are still standing. It is difficult to get anything done with rain every few days.
10/23 - Dodge County, Wis.: It's the 22nd of October and we have had 2 days suitable for bean harvest so far with 1 1/2 of those days grain moisture at 16%, and the forecast for the next week looks like no progress will be made either. Thinking of switching to harvesting corn at 26-30% moisture, yippy. If it keeps going like this and Christmas will be spent in the combine cab!
10/23 - Wright County, Iowa: Still some beans can be found in the area. Sunday and Monday harvested a lot of Soybean fields in the area. 14 to 17 % Moisture. We did corn on Monday and Tuesday Found some dry corn 21% ( I never thought I would call 100 day corn at 21% dry corn on Oct 20th) Good yield. But now rain. We were annoyingly wet before, now we are seriously wet. Ethanol Plant and feed mill has enough corn for 7-10 days. With weather forecast it may be hard to get moving by then. Keep your feet dry!!
10/23 - Jackson County, Minn.: Rain, rain, rain!!! Have done 1 hopper of beans ad are way too wet!! Combine doesn't want to cut them let alone shell them out. Some farmers are done and some have tried to do something. This is getting frustrating but nothing you can do about. Pray for sunshine and wind to dry this crop out.
10/23 - Woodbury County, Northwest Iowa: We were able to work two short afternoons last week and one this week. Soybean moisture has been ranging from 13 to 16 if we wait to start between 2-4 pm. Yields are average. We have put most of the soybeans in drying bins however the weather doesn't allow for drying. This is only the second time that we've ever attempted to dry soybeans. We were fortunate to get some beans off in early October so have about 1/3 of our soybean acres done but this is the exception in this area. Some haven't started yet. The weather forecast calls for a couple days of dry weather this weekend before more rain early next week. We will be harvesting beans well into November. Some high moisture corn has been combined for cattle feeding. Moisture has been in the upper 20s to lower 30s. The old timers say they've never seen fall weather like this. The longer the crop stays in the field the less chance we have of getting it all.
10/23 - Bremer, Fayette counties, Iowa: We are in the same boat as the rest of you. It has rained nearly an inch today. Beans are slow going, somewhere around 50% done or so. Yields are respectable. Corn yields are also showing good numbers, however 30% moisture and low test weight, should make the final numbers drop a bit. Some tillage going on, while waiting for dryers, or conditions to improve for harvesting. This is one of those years, when a guy would like to have two combines, one for soy, one for corn.
10/22 - Madison County, Neb.: Here it's almost Halloween and were there's 50% of soybeans in the field. Farmers are reporting excellent yields elevators were open til 9 pm earlier in the week to keep up with the pace of traffic coming in. Corn in the area off to extremely slow start with most moisture in the mid to high 20's. Hearing excellent yields but to wet to do much! Snowing now with predictions of 2 inches of snow on top of the 1 to 2 inch rain received yesterday and overnight. Looks like Thanksgiving might be in the cab. But things could always be worse, it will all get done one way or another.
10/22 - Northeast South Dakota: We have two problems here in NE South Dakota. One the ground is to wet to drive on and two the beans are too wet. We are wet wet wet and it rains or snows everyday so drying has just not happened almost the whole month of October. Most of us would take bean wet if we could drive a combine across the field...in-between the standing water.
10/22 - St. Clair County, Southwestern Illinois: Our mess in this area is about to get messier. We had one of the latest starts on record due to the abundance of moisture this spring. Almost all of the soybeans in this area were planted the last week of June and the first week of July. So far, we have had one of the ten coolest July's on record, we are on pace for the second coolest October on record, and with all of the rain predicted for the next ten days we will have the wettest October on record. Corn yields are running 170-240 bpa dry. Beans are running from 35-52 bpa which is about fifteen percent below average. Double crops did not make it along with some of the first crop beans due to frost. Can you say, "Late planting, white mold, frost, below normal temperatures, and aphids?" You are getting the picture. The fields are already wet and we are rutting some of them up daily. Bean moisture is running anywhere around 12-17% on the same cut. Corn is still in the mid twenties for most. It is taking more time to dry corn this year at 25% than ever before. Nobody seems to know why unless it is because of the big kernels. I would put harvest at 5-10% complete with some folks electing for more drying time since they do not have grain dryers. How soon will we be done? Heck of a good question. Maybe Christmas, hopefully sooner. Mother Nature has sure put a charge in this grain rally and is starting to thin the hairlines for most farmers as the worrying is growing.
10/22 - Brown County, Northeast Kansas: Yields are exceptionally good, 180 plus on corn, 50 to 75 on beans. 30% corn out, most of it dried. 60% beans cut, running 13 plus moisture.
10/22 - Dane, Wis.: Tuesday was overcast and humid, nothing moved, Four tenths rain over night, More rain predicted for Thursday, Friday, and snow showers on Saturday. Nothing moving for the foreseeable future.
10/22 - Faribault County, South Central Minnesota: Every one went hard on beans Monday and Tuesday, but you just can't get everything done in two days. Heavy Rain today. A lot of beans have been combined at 15-17% moisture. The elevators generally wouldn't accept them over 15%. We put our wetter ones in a bin with full air, don't know if we'll have trouble with them or not. Did a 150 acres of corn last week 26-27% moisture. Yielded 204 by volume measured by dryer dumps, but hauled it to town and it only weighed enough to yield 186. That's about a 9% loss. This was a 96 day corn planted April 17, test weight was 50 to 51 pounds. With the weather pattern we have now Harvest will probably last until Dec this year.
10/22 - Renville County, Hector, Minn.: This is the slowest harvest since 1968. Conditions are terrible. The ground is as wet as it can get. We have some soybeans harvested and small amount of corn. The corn is very wet 30% plus.
10/22 - Mills County, Iowa: Corn completed 188 bu. dry. Working on beans as weather allows.
10/22 - Douglas County, Ill.: After several days of warmer weather, what started out as 17% moisture on Sunday in the bean field is now down below 12%. Lots of combine lights in the fields last night. We didn't finish up until 9:30. Wet weather is predicted for Thursday for us. Yields are ranging anywhere from 42 to the high 60's.
10/21 - West Central Minnesota: Very little rain all summer and now it won't stop. We have a few soybeans left to combine. Some have very few soybeans out. Yields have been just short of average. We tried some corn and it is 30% moisture.
10/21 - Southwest Iowa: Wouldn't you know it...more rain. We got a start on beans about mid afternoon on Sunday. After some initial break downs we finally got rolling on Monday. They started off a bit wet at 15% and by the time we shut down last night they were 13%. We pulled out some test strips of Asgrow beans. RR2 beans were 56 bpa, the regular old faithful RR's were 54, and a test section (regular RR Asgrow) that is believed to have Headline on it went 64. I am not real confident that my spray guy knows where they put the Headline on (of course I couldn't be there the day they did it) but we took the test strip where they were "pretty sure" it went on. All things considered these type of yields will give us our best bean crop we have had. So I guess we will wait for this mud maker to get on through and see if we can start back up around Sunday again.
10/21 - Winnebago County, Iowa: Everyone was beaning hard yesterday with many lights still on at 1 AM. Some beans are under 13% but most are 14-16%. Yields are good for the most part in the low to upper 50's. Soy harvest at 60% complete this morning for the area. Wet fields have guys leaving pretty good ruts where they need tile. Corn harvest is less than 5%. Corn that has been taken is anywhere from 25%-35%. 2 week forecast looks less than ideal. If it was easy, everyone would be doing it.
10/20 - Clay County, Wakonda, South East South Dakota: Fields have water in rows. Beans wet and grain elevators will not take them. Some corn was close to starting to black layer but plants were and still are green went frost/freeze hit over a week ago. That corn will not dry nor keep easily. If winds come will be a mess. Beans are going down — just too wet. Will not be able to load trucks in the fields. Can not run combine bean heads close to ground thus will be leaving lot of crop in the field — ground/leaves just will not dry before the next rain event.
10/19 - Southeast Iowa: A lot of harvesting will happen today. Still a little wet but the forecast looks wetter. Need another week of this past weekend's sunshine and 65 degree temps.
10/19 - Southeast Livingston County, Ill.: I knew I had White Mold in one field pretty bad. Boy did I not realize how bad. The field tipped 70 bushels to the acre in 2007. Started this afternoon doing the same field and some places are only making 30 bushels to the acre and what I did has averaged only 38 bushels to the acre. Ouch! I don't expect the whole 110 acres to average over 40 bushels. Just getting started in soybeans and no corn done yet. Long fall ahead.
10/19 - Columbia County, Wis.: Combines have been parked almost all week. Sunny and breezy today, but Beans are still 16% to 20% moisture. Thunderstorms predicted for Tuesday. That means tomorrow may be it for several more days. Most of the corn silage has been made. Probably 15% of beans have been harvested. Just enough corn shelled to tide Dairy and Beef farmers over. Yields are on the light to average side. We all kind of snicker when a neighbor brags about his yields. If it snows, the beans are in big trouble. The seed companies I talked to are still trying to push there exorbitant prices on us. Going to do a lot of shopping this year. Don't get hurt trying to push the harvest.
10/19 - Woodbury County, Northwest Iowa: Just moved combine to another farm (3:00 PM) and the ground is so wet the mud was sticking to everything. There won't be anything done this weekend here in this area. Rain forecast for Monday night through Wednesday morning and again Friday. Temperature today was suppose to be in the low fifties and at three o'clock the temperature was 44 degrees and cloudy. Very few beans done in this area and a couple of farmers have did a very small amount of corn.....very wet corn!
Thursday, October 22, 2009 11:35 PM by: Anonymous
I'd like to know what happened to the huge glut of unpriced old crop that all the market analysts and government experts said would hit the market in September. [Answer: "the huge glut of unpriced old crop" never existed. It was pure propaganda from the USDA] Here in North Iowa and Southern MN the elevators are empty and the feed mills and ethanol plants are out begging for corn, even if it is poor quality. All of the so called pros are full of sh*t.
Thursday, October 22, 2009 8:00 PM by: Northeast Arkansas #2
Forgot to say that Soybean basis in Memphis is +.30 the Harvest high, and going higher!!! Can't get quality beans.
Thursday, October 22, 2009 6:08 PM by: Anonymous
I think Bill Biedermann is full of baloney. Speculative money has nothing to do with this rally. If ethanol plants and bean processors didn't have to pay 4 and 10, they wouldn't. My local ethanol plant is paying .03 over the Dec. for corn and the local elevator is paying .20 under for beans. If speculative money was truly the culprit of the rally, these basus levels would be hugely different. Demand and harvest delays are driving the rally. Again, Bill Biedermann, you're full of SH*T.
Thursday, October 22, 2009 5:57 PM by: Notheast Arkansas #2
The "disconnect" is between the field and the Elavators!! We can't get soybeans to them, and the beans that make it to the elavators are getting rejected!!! Call ADM Memphis at 870-739-1380. We have some serious quality issues down here, 52# test wt. and mold on the soybeans. The trucks are getting rejected, and having to drive to were ever they will take them!! The soybeans are NOT fit to load on river barges to go down to the gulf for export. This is the Mother of all Harvest!! and it's raining again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thursday, October 22, 2009 5:02 PM by: Anonymous
Market advisors are all the same. Damn near every one of the was wrong and won't admit. They all talk about record yields but they must liste n to news not available to me, I have not heard such results. When all is said and done, I believe the crops, both corn and beans, will be much smaller than any one of them anticipated. They are all trying to make us believe these prices are unjustified. Take a look outside and see if you think this weather is conducive to record harvests. I have some corn that was planted April 22 and the test weight is 53 lbs. That's a lot more than most, including the rest of my own. When it's over, if harvest ever gets over, how much yield will be taken off 13 billion bushels of corn if it all weghs 51 or 52 lbs. or less ?? I think every damn one of them is short the market and trying to bulls-h-i-t the rest of us into believing them.
My reaction: Rains are swamping crops and washing away any hope of a decent harvest.
Rain, rain, rain
1) The 84-hour Midwest forecast is very wet.
2) September/October have seen some of highest level of rainfall ever recorded across most of the Midwest.
Crop losses to begin accumulating
1) Soybeans will have significant quality and yield losses if harvested.
2) The longer the crop stays in the field the less chance we have of getting it all.
3) If it turns cold and the Midwest gets by snow that would be the ultimate worst case scenario. Getting that harvest completed at that would be difficult, if not impossible.
The USDA has made crisis worst
1) By blatantly lying about US crop production, the US has keep prices artificially low and left most of the world completely unprepared for this year's production shortfalls.
2) Articles about a "huge glut of unpriced old crop" and similar bearish news stories were pure propaganda from the USDA.
3) Processing and ethanol plants have been caught off guard by shortages and prices increases because they didn't buy corn in advance. They are now out begging for corn.
4) Ethanol Plant and feed mill in Iowa only have enough corn for 7-10 days.
5) The price of anything made out of soybean is going to increase.
Fundamentals driving market
1) Speculative money has nothing to do with this rally. The Treasury/Goldman is heavily shorting commodities across futures markets, nullifying any upwards pressure from speculative money.
2) Demand and harvest delays are driving prices up.
Conclusion: Welcome to the food crisis and dollar collapse of 2009/10! Thanks to the USDA's bogus crop estimates and bearish propaganda, the world is completely unprepared from what is to come.
Right now, all major exporters of soybeans are virtually out. What happens if the soybean crop never comes in? Answer: prices double causing a new, more vicious financial crisis which will lead to the dollar's demise.
As I have stated before, gold and agricultural land/commodities will be the best performers over the next year. This is why I am starting a fund to invest in Russian agricultural land. Please email me for more information.