An “UN-FREAKIN-BELIEVABLE” Harvest

Below are the comments made during the last five days from Agweb's October Crop Comments.

(emphasis mine) [my comment]

10/30 - Central Illinois: Pam Smith, Farm Journal Seeds & Production Editor: Rain, rain, go away! See a drowning field of beans in central Illinois.



10/30 - Menard County, Central Illinois: I think it is time to remind everyone (or maybe you realize) that just because there is a week of dry weather in the forecast we are actually going to be harvesting for that whole week! Around here we are probably looking at 4 or 5 good drying days before we could consider getting back in the field, and we will still be making a mess. I also expect the Sangamon River and Salt Creek to come out of there banks today and tomorrow, affecting thousands of un-harvested acres. I would estimate that harvest progress for this area is: corn 20% complete, soybeans 40%. What a year...good luck.

10/30 - Bond County, South Central Illinois: UN-FREAKIN-BELIEVABLE.

10/30 - Huntington County, Northeast Indiana: We are having RAIN for the umpteenth time this month!! We still have 125 acres of beans to cut. And they are really good beans. Yielding really well. We have shelled a very small amount of corn and it was wetter than we have dried for several years. 25-30 moisture. We hope we have a lot of nice days in November. Stay safe and keep smiling.

10/30 - Western Walsh County, Northeast North Dakota: A couple good days came our way the first part of the week. We were able to combine the last 600 acres of wheat on Monday and Tuesday. It was all over 20%, but at least it's out of the fields, and holding in air bins while the grain dryer is running overtime. Lot's of edible beans still to be harvested in ND. We have not started on our beans yet...

10/30 - Audrain County, Mo.: Lindsey Benne, Beef Today and Dairy Today Art Director: Farmers are hauling in gravel to their fields just to get in and out.




-- Audrain County, Mo.

10/30 - Carlos, Minn.: It has been raining off and on for 3 weeks. We got a start to the beans 3 weeks ago, some of my neighbors were out on Tuesday the only day of full sun and wind that we had. The beans were between 18-28%. I don't have the balls to try that yet. I thought we could go on Wednesday but at 10 am it started to drizzle and it has been raining ever since to get through the gloom we have put the carpenter belt on to do some remolding have a safe harvest say a pray for dry weather.

10/30 - Opole, Minn.: Rain, rain, go away, and come back next July day!!!

10/30 - Lafayette County Wis.: WET, WET, WET. I guess we are all in the same boat. We are way, way behind. Corn is developing green mold. Broker says when weather straightens out there is a big crop out there. Problem is will the sun ever shine again? Stay safe everyone...a safe harvest is a good harvest.

10/30 - Nebraska Panhandle: Guess we don't have to worry about the irrigated corn blowing over before harvest, the snow is holding it up!


-- Nebraska Panhandle

10/30 - Buena Vista County, Northwest Iowa: Raining here again, close to 10 inches now in October, Still some beans out in the fields here, I just got done, Yields decent in the 50's which is normal. Some have gave up on beans and started corn, most of it from what I've heard is anywhere from 20% to 40% moisture and yields from 120 to 220, with very low test weights. Stalk Rot now a real concern & some guys are finding green snap they didn't know they had, those yields cut in half. I believe this harvest, when it's over, if ever will be one, we all will want to forget!

10/30 - Cass County, Iowa: 1.4 in. of rain so far today and it's still raining. I've only run 80 acres of beans in October. It rains or drizzles nearly every day. Yields are great with beans 50 to 62 and most corn over 200 but wet @ 23 to 25%. It's going to be a long fall at this pace.

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10/29 - Hutchinson Kan.: Just after midnight Oct. 29, 2009. It is pouring down rain again. Still have beans to cut, still have wheat to plant. I am 50 years old and I have never planted wheat this late. 2010 wheat will be very pour when planted this late.

10/29 - East Central Missouri: 10 to 12 inches of rain since Oct. 8th. Two more inches expected tomorrow night. Most of corn and beans planted last week of June and first week of July. A lot of corn not black layered yet. Beans frosted and were defoliated. Don't know what the outcome will be. Only a small amount of corn not replanted is harvested. Most beans planted only once, but very little harvested. I know of first crop beans planted on July 19th. They were completely green when the frost hit. Good luck to everyone.

10/29 - Dane/Columbia counties, Wis.: Big problem -- I just checked my four different varieties of Pioneer corn. 70% has mold. Not advanced yet, but we have to start harvesting to get it down below 15%. Dealer denies there is a problem. I'm just waiting for these seed companies to continue there exorbitant prices. We have to lobby our representatives to allow us to us our home grown seeds for seed. Brazil and Argentina does not permit seed/chemical companies to restrict farmers.

10/29 - Obion County, Tenn.: Lot of corn harvested this week along with a few beans. Raining now will slow harvest the next few days. Harvested corn until 1 a.m. Thursday morning, many combines running and grain elevator was staying open. Looks like good weather the next few days after the wet system moves out farmers are way behind but with good weather we can catch up quick.

10/29 - Clark County, Ark.: If there were any doubts about how nasty it is down here this ought to answer those questions.

[Wow...]

-- Clark County, Ark.

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10/28 - Southern Will County, Ill., about fifty miles south of Chicago: So far this week we have received 7 tenths of rain, we need at least two more days without rain before ground conditions will support equipment. The only harvesting we have done (as with almost all other farmers in our area) was last Mon, Tue, Wed ( Oct 19-21), everyone was doing beans. When we started on Monday was about 16 + % and by late Tue and Wed we were taking some out around 13 %, our yields have been from upper 40s to low 50s. Bean harvest is about 30-40 % complete here, but does change rapidly in just a few miles, with more or less harvesting complete. We have not done any corn; you can probably drive ten miles in any direction and can only find a few corn fields where corn harvest has occurred. Those who have done corn report 29-35 + % moisture, they also say that in last 7-10 days have only lost one point, and no one has talked about yields. We have changed over to corn now, seems like no "bean weather" in near future, so if ground conditions improve and we miss the next forecast rain event, we will try some corn on Fri (Oct 30) and get some firsthand knowledge of what our moisture levels and yield.

10/28 - Ramsey County, Northeast North Dakota: Rain again with more rain & snow in the forecast for the next few days. We have only harvested 3 partial days in the past month. Pinto beans are less than 25% harvested, moisture has been over twenty on most, what is left will only be a salvage operation. Soybeans are less than 10% harvested, and they were upper teens to over twenty moisture. We had not planned to even try the corn until after Thanksgiving, may harvest it in the spring, did a lot last year and was pleasantly surprised by the increase in test weight and minimal loss.

10/28 - Lancaster, Pa.: We are wet and getting wetter. Harvest is at a standstill with 3 inches of rain in the past week. Corn moisture still running in the upper 20's. Quality will soon become an issue as well. It will be a challenge to get the remaining acres of small grain planted.

10/28 - Texas: Though cooler weather slowed down the advance of armyworms, the pest is still eating up pastures and small grain fields in many parts of the state, report Texas AgriLife Extension Service personnel.

[There were undoubtedly a lot of fields that weren't sprayed in time...]

The line of demarcation is clearly visible in this Somervell County small grain field where the farmer stopped the advance of armyworms with a pesticide spraying. If the producer hadn't sprayed, the pest would have quickly taken out the whole field, said Joshua Blanek, Texas AgriLife Extension Service agent for agriculture in Somervell County, southwest of Fort Worth. (Texas AgriLife Extension Service photo by Joshua Blanek)

10/28 - Gove County, Kan.: Normally I am winding up fall harvest and as of today I have not even started. Corn and milo is not drying down enough to the level needed to deliver to the local elevators. Field conditions are wet with water standing in many terraces and more moisture on the way. It is definitely a challenge ahead for the fall harvest!

10/28 - Richland County, Wis.: Lots of rain over 4" in last 2 weeks. Lots of corn has got mold some fields are not useable corn is all black on cob. lots off beans have water standing in them. More standing than cut in Richland County, Wis. Grant County is about the same; had fog that froze on crops this morning. Slow, slow, slow is what happening here.


10/28 - Far Northern Illinois: Many fields of soybeans untouched some corn being picked but hard to find corn under 30%. Mold is present on almost every ear I looked at yesterday. Stalk quality is starting to slip quickly in some fields. There simply is not enough drying capacity to harvest this crop with any speed. Most guys have drying capacity for a half day of harvesting and two big 12 row combines can bury the local elevator at 32% corn. Feels like a real disaster is just around the corner with any type of wind or snow event. We will be talking about the fall of 2009 for many years to come.

10/28 - Grinnell, Iowa: Pam Smith, Farm Journal Seeds & Production Editor: Tom Fry, Monsanto region agronomy lead, discusses the condition of the corn crop in his area and where SmartStax fits.

10/28 - Seven Springs, N.C.: Corn harvest is nearing completion with above average yields. Were seeing some 120-220 bpa over our acres, peanut harvest is half-way through with good yields over 2 tons/acre. Cotton harvest is slowly starting with yields being anywhere between 700-1500 lbs to the acre (all dryland).Soybean Harvest is still 2 weeks away. Tobacco is over and people are cutting ditchbanks and beginning to plant wheat. Have a Safe and Blessed Harvest Season.

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10/27 - Jackson County, Mich.: We got our beans done between showers; moisture was 17 high and 12.5 low yield just 50...still lots of beans in county to do yet.

10/27 - Bristolville, Ohio: Harvesting Soybeans with the New Holland TR85. Case 2390 pulling a Unverferth and DMI Gravity wagons.

10/27 - Central Michigan: Wet and getting wetter, soys are half done for us now were all in the same boat. This could get real bad real fast I've seen it before snow will be here before you know it. Some beans I am afraid are disc bait frosted green as grass and now are mush. Tested corn at 30-32.

10/27 - East Central Illinois: Still a lot of fields of soybeans untouched some corn being picked but still 22 to28 % I opened up a corn field of 109day corn planted May 22nd and found lots of moldy ears. The shucks on the ear where closed and no bird damage but are moldy from top to bottom. The Diplodia seems worse on the higher ground in the field.

10/27 - Roseau County, Northwest Minnesota: The corn is covered with mold. 40% moisture and the corn will be shot before we have a chance to harvest. Lots of wet beans and confection flowers have head rot are shelling out.

10/27 - Scotts Bluff County, Nebraska Panhandle: Following ten years of drought farmers trying to scratch out a living in the Nebraska panhandle were in seventh heaven when showers arrived on schedule this past spring; fast forward to October and sentiments couldn't be worse. The rains we'd spent years praying for turned vicious....pounding fields so hard sprouting beans couldn't break the surface, and delaying corn planting by soggy-weeks...not days. In addition to less-than-desirable planting conditions our summer was unusually cool and cloudy; harvest troubles were inevitable. As of October 26 eight percent of the dry edible beans remain un-harvested, farmers are slowly mudding-out the sugar beets, and corn is still running mid to upper twenties moisture. With area bins equipped with fans, not dryers, we've no recourse but to wait and pray.

In the past few weeks we've seen record snowfall, and rain measuring in inches...not the tenths our area is known for; the latest weather forecast says we have a 90% chance of 5 to 15 inches of snow accompanied by 55mph winds later this week. It looks as if this might be the year of 'The Harvest'....the one retired farmers talk about when they're old and grey.

"I remember 2009; you never saw anything like it......"

10/27 - Northwest Minnesota, along Canadian Border: We had a hard killing frost Sept 27th and now the corn has ear rot on 75 - 90% of the cobs. Federal Crop is releasing thousands of acres and corn choppers are going. There won't be many fields combined in NW MN. The moisture is 45%. Lots of beans left. Moisture is stuck at 18 - 20%.

10/27 - Greenfield, Ill.: More rain in Greenfield, Ill., says farmer Ross Prough.

10/27 - Ohio:
Most of the beans are off a little bit of corn but is ever wet 25 to 35 percent moisture we dried some over the weekend and the test weight is 58 to 59 yields is better than we ever expected. No rain most of the summer 125 to 140 on ground that usually grows 175 to 200l plus but we will take it hoping tonight before the rain to get another 10,000 shelled.

10/27 - Dane/Columbia County, Wis.: Drizzle all day again. Neighbors are talking about mold forming on the tips of corn ears. Steam is really rolling out of neighbors dryer as he is trying to get started harvesting corn. 2/3 of my beans still in the field. Forecast - sunny tomorrow, cloudy on Wednesday, rain and snow mix after that.

10/27 - Miner County, S.D.: Just a few beans out with yields in fifties but moisture 18 to 19. Corn is thirty five or more. Have not turned a wheel on our farms. Brookings County bean yields in forty mainly with 30 to 50 % done. Very little corn. My farm beans were fifty one and 12% but lots of ground to cover, a most interesting year.

10/27 - Southwest Minnesota: We had 2.20 inches of rain from the 21 to the 22 and with it we had wet snow that gave us .35 inches of moisture. Maybe a quarter of the beans are out and I'm talking about a big area that is still standing in the field. Only spotty corn to test for moisture and it is 25 to 38% and most is in the 30 to 38% range. We have had 3.75 in. rain in the month of October. Fields were staying good for harvest but now have water standing in some low spots. Most all beans have been taken out with moisture in the 14 to 20% range. A lot of beans have been binned and air on them but we have not had any sunny days with low humidity. Elevators are drying beans. Yields have been in the 48 to 60 bu. range when harvested. A lot of money is due around the first of Nov. and we have not much crop harvested to fill contracts for new crop sales. We need everyone to be praying to God for help and to get us through this difficult time. He always makes it work out!!!!

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10/26 - Bond County, South Central Illinois: Is this really possible? We have had the wettest couple of months in history. Most corn is still 30% and they are calling for 2-3 more inches of rain this week. We are losing crop as we speak. Lodging in the corn is starting to take place. Any suggestions? I am ready to punt!!!!

10/26 - North Central Illinois: We tried about an acre of soybeans @ 17% so it's back to corn. The corn was running anywhere from 200-260 dry and the wet yield is even too wild to mention! This field was mainly running around 30-34% but the next field we went into was 38% so it was decided that we should stop fo r just a little bit. It has been raining so much that we really can't do much anyway.

10/26 - Fillmore County, southeast Minnesota: Got our beans harvested late Tuesday night, running about 53bpa+ before shrink. Just looked at a cob of corn and noticed now we have moldy corn, it wasn't entirely covered in mold but as if this year hasn't been difficult enough now we get this thrown at us.

10/26 - Central South Dakota: We have not turned a wheel. Corn 30-35% Sunflowers 24% as of yesterday. Flowers are starting to mold in the field and test wt. is light around 25 lbs after air drying. Rain all next week. A lot of talk that this harvest will finish up this spring. Corn does not dry after the first of Nov. here. Not good.

10/26 - Central Illinois: Pam Smith, Farm Journal Seeds & Production Editor: We're a soggy mess in Central Illinois. Rain gauges captured anywhere from 2.5 to 3.5 inches. A lot of crop came out of the field this week, but we still have a long way to go. This bean field sits southwest of Decatur. I should have said that we got that rain Thursday night and Friday morning.


-- Pam Smith, Farm Journal Seeds & Production Editor

10/26 - Floyd County, Iowa: We had 4 inches of rain Oct.20 thru Oct.24. Most are 60% to 70% done with beans, of which most were harvested too wet. Corn will vary from 21% to 38% in one pass across the field, rather unusual for 100 day corn planted before April 24th. Yields good, reports of dried corn test weight 48 to 53 lbs. Corn harvesting is practically non existent.

10/26 - Cedar County, Neb.: Sunshine is getting to be an abnormal object in the sky. We received 2" of rain Tuesday thru Friday and raining this mourning. Harvest is slow, we have two soybean fields out over the scale 69bu.irrigated and 50 on dryland well above average. Corn harvest looks to be great but very wet irr.250 dryland 200. Praying for sun and warm weather. Be careful; safety first!!!!

10/26 - East Central North Dakota: Total stand still in East Central North Dakota. Too wet to dig beets, too wet to combine soys, 1/2 or more of the dry beans left and too wet. Sunflower moisture went from 17 two weeks ago to 27 yesterday. And weather man says snow for Thursday, Saturday and Sunday of next week...Man are we in trouble...

10/26 - Benson County, Northeast North Dakota: Same old weather. Wet, wet, wet. Benson and Wells counties are 2 of the largest producers of Pinto Beans in the US. There might be 25% harvested. With rain and snow in the forecast for the next 10 days it is not looking good for any type of bean harvest. There are a lot of soybeans standing also but we have very little effect on total world production. Hopefully we can get the corn and sunflowers off. Preventive Plant is the only option right now for next year. Water standing all over.

10/26 - North Central, Campbell County, S.D.: Were able to attempt to combine beans only once this fall and that was a week ago. Rain, sprinkles and heavy cloud cover everyday. With forecast for upcoming week it looks like combines will be sitting til at least Friday. Frustrated like the rest of you as it looks like we are sitting on some real good yields. We did notice a touch of mold in some the corn that got hit by the early frost. Has anyone else noticed mold in their corn fields in the Dakotas? Everyone be safe once this harvest gets underway and good luck!.
...
10/26 - Western Dawson, Cozad, Lexington, Neb.: These were sent to me by a friend. Thought I would pass it along.







-- Western Dawson, Cozad, Lexington, Neb.

My reaction: I have said that I expect the 2009/10 crop to be down around 10% from last year, but I am beginning to think it might be worse than that...

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48 Responses to An “UN-FREAKIN-BELIEVABLE” Harvest

  1. Working on major article now, I hope to be done by late tonight.

  2. Anonymous says:

    blah blah blah

    cut-n-paste cut-n-paste cut-n-paste

    Crops are fine. Get a clue.

  3. Pooper says:

    This blog sucks

  4. Anonymous says:

    Christ guys...

    I might not agree with these guys in that gold is where it's at...

    But there is good information here...

    And if your going to attack Eric, may I suggest to attack him on points...

    Not just some bs one liner, especially about the cut and pasting...

    I really want to see the major article though...

  5. Anonymous says:

    I'm from IL with alot of farmer friends. Talked to two friends today and neither one of them had started beans. Corn is testing at 30-35 percent moisture. Its NOT GOOD here, these guys are running out of time.

  6. Anonymous says:

    So you morons think all these local reports lie? WOW!

  7. Anonymous says:

    Im curious as to whether all you CHART guys have actually talked to farmers in IL, all of IA, NE and other states. The crops, overall SUCK!!! Eric's "down 10 percent" where I'm at is going to be way off. It will be alot higher.

    Stop lookin at the charts on your mothers computer and go talk to the farmers.

  8. Anonymous says:

    This all seems like a similar experience I had two years ago when I thought crocs stock was way over priced at $70 a share. Then I went to about 100 stores and asked the clerks if they were still a red hot item. Most said that they were not selling like they used to. I shorted them at $65 and the stock dropped to $5 within months,,,,ka-ching. Eric is providing the same intel . It is my strong opinion that we will see a sharp rise across the board starting Monday. This week was options expiration and it was in the best interests of the criminals to push the price down into the close.

  9. dashxdr says:

    I've noticed a negative correlation between the volume of Eric's articles and the volume of the comments.

    My guess is one of the anonymous posters is Eric himself, wasting time in the comments area of his own Blog.

    That's just plain twisted.

  10. Anonymous says:

    dashxdr,

    you need to get your head checked. i'm starting to think your the crazy one and not the anons.

  11. dashxdr says:

    you need to get your head checked.

    Strong words, coming from a man wearing a mask.

  12. Anonymous says:

    dash...
    i think the correlation you are talking to is somewhat short thought?
    what if people are just starting to realize eric's blog because of economy? back in the days, i remember seeing no more than 10-20 happy readers but now there are always more than 40ish? or around at least.
    i think my guess on the correlation sounds more fitting.

    "you need to get your head checked.

    Strong words, coming from a man wearing a mask."

    another wrongful correlation you made here. just because he decided to go anonymous??? maybe he's just the guy who doesnt like being identified? how would that credit his opinion (whatever he said) ?

    lets not pick up a weird fight like the last post.

  13. Willy2 says:

    I believe all the folks who don't believe grainprices won't go up shouldn't forget that Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China and India are about to experience foodshortages as well.

    When they start buying grain then prices will go through the roof.

  14. dashxdr says:

    OMG Psychopath is back again with his same tired song:

    1) You are blind!
    2) Be afraid, escape is impossible!
    3) All your preparations are doomed to failure
    4) HAHAHAHAHA!

    We all know your message, psychopath. Any new thoughts? I won't expect any constructive ideas because I know you're incapable of them.

  15. Anonymous says:

    @dashxdr

    You calling me a psychopath is kinda ironic...

    I mean you claimed that I'm a government stooge who is only here to cause chaos...

    You claimed I have created undue mental stress on you because you think I'm going to kill you...

    You have threatened me with legal action...

    You have claimed that others are impersonating me...

    You claim that all anons wear masks and thus should be discounted, and are cowards...

    And now the latest is that you think Eric himself is spending to much time in his comment section and not working on his master thesis...

    And you call me the psychopath...

    I swear the deaf and blind never stop amazing me over their stupidity...

  16. Anonymous says:

    Also I'm deaf (real), but I'm also amazed by stupidity of the people without knowledge and insights (or believe having it).

    Eric is a clever contrarian monetarist. I like his articles.

    I also predict hyperinflation in the near future (1-7years). But I will not say which the trigger would be...

    Greetz

    Yann

  17. Anonymous says:

    Eric,

    Do you pack fudge?

  18. Anonymous says:

    ERIC!

    Where's your "major article"?

    Do you have writer's block...or maybe cut-n-paste block????

    LOLOLOLOL!!!!!

  19. Anonymous says:

    Notice that Eric removed the reference to his upcoming blockbuster of a MAJOR ARTICLE from the front page...guess he was tired of getting picked on.

    Now that he's been shown to be wrong on grain prices, I wonder if he'll even make another post...he might even shut this blog down. It's been a monumental failure anyway...since his purpose was to get investment dollars for his Russian Adventure...yeah, right...not gonna' happen.

  20. dashxdr says:

    Why pick on Eric? We all ought to thank him for having his blog, otherwise none of us would have a place to whine.

    With no sarcasm at all, I for one appreciate your blog, Eric. Sorry about all the negativism here.

  21. Anonymous says:

    As strange as it is...

    I agree with dashxdr...

    I'm grateful for the insights of Eric's blog...

    Even though such insights focus on a narrow ideology of monetization of debt...

    He none-the-less is one of few speculators who is calling for inflation...

    Let alone inflation in less then six months, as well as the collapse of the dollar...

    Regardless of the masses calling for deflation...

    Eric stands firm in his convictions...

    And seeks out those things that confirm such a conviction...

    Willing to share his findings and ideas to the world, the ultimate expression of his conviction...

    The world now awaits your master thesis Eric...

  22. Sammy says:

    Attention!!!!

    The following domains have just been listed for sale on http://www.Sedo.com with NO MINIMUM BID!

    Broadscape.com
    DarkCastle.com
    BeachMarket.com

    Good Luck!

  23. Anonymous says:

    The United States produces 41% of the world’s corn and 38% of the world’s soybeans. These crops comprise two of the four largest sources of caloric energy produced and are thus critical for world food supply.

  24. Natasa says:

    Viper,
    Personally I think that Eric is the best of all those guys you are mentioned.

    As I see, you are impressed with dr Jim Willie.
    Please read what he thing about this last "semi-lifeless US$ rally":

    http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/1029.html

  25. dashxdr says:

    Jim Willie is top of my list. Eric's older stuff is right up there, lately he's been producing less and less.

    Fekete is always an interesting read, even if certain fundamental theories he gloms onto are hopelessly flawed. He actually believed there was no upper limit to bond values, such that every time the bond yield is cut by 50%, all the existing bonds would have to double in value. Madness! But he is good when he talks about the dangers of fiat currency without gold backing.

    Mish is beneath contempt. I can't even read the titles of his articles anymore.

  26. Dr. Campbell says:

    Dear Mr. Eric,

    I have sensitive information in my possession regarding that what have written about on the 24hgold.com website. How may I contact you?

  27. Anonymous says:

    Speaking of charts... Anon said, "This is very important, as a matter of fact all banks use this type of analysis, as well as all financial management and advisory companies (investment corporations)..."

    The statement above lacks credibility in the complete sense of the word. Aren't those the same 'charts' people that failed to see the financial crash, who would have gone completely bankrupt if not for all of those worldwide government bail-outs?

  28. Anonymous says:

    @Anonymous

    "The statement above lacks credibility in the complete sense of the word. Aren't those the same 'charts' people that failed to see the financial crash, who would have gone completely bankrupt if not for all of those worldwide government bail-outs?"

    First, it's about the data which the charts represent, for without the data there would be no charts...

    Second, in conjunction with the data and the use of mathematical probability equations an analysis is done to spot trends...

    Third, no matter what you believe those in power of both government and the financial institutions knew that the crash was coming...

    If they told the public what is really going on you would have anarchy in a matter of hours throughout the whole nation...

    Besides, the power-elite could care less about average joe blow...

    As long as he pays his taxes and does what he's told, he is controlled and subdued...

    And finally forth, those charts where about corn data...

    Prices on agriculture commodities had nothing to do with the crash...

  29. Anonymous says:

    I forgot to add...

    Eric, please for the love of dashxdr's unholy soul...

    Can we get the big article soon...

  30. dashxdr says:

    dashxdr's unholy soul...

    I freely admit I have no soul.

  31. dashxdr says:

    Incidentally Eric's article appeared on GATA's site:

    http://www.gata.org/node/7954

    Once in a while Eric's articles appear elsewhere.

  32. Claire says:

    I agree with Natasa - Eric has every right to post his opinions and provide investment information and options to those who may be interested.

    I also think his blog is one of the finest and I have no reason to believe he is a dishonest. person

    Additionally, if all it took was some statistics and charts to figure this out, you Vipers etc. wouldn't be sitting around reading this blog.

    About a year ago, Eric had posted some general a well as particular advice on equity investing - categories of investment as well as individual stocks.
    I followed it and nearly everything I've got is up 30-40%

    Lastly, Congratulations, Eric.
    If you weren't onto something all these people wouldn't be so hot and bothered.

  33. Anonymous says:

    Eric, stick to the research. The "sky is falling" articles do not suite you.

  34. Hugo says:

    Viper, you need to get a clue about metals, specially gold.

    You said that metals do good in deflationary times because gold is money. I agree it is, but with the monetary system we have the money people is using is dollars.

    When you say historically gold has done better during deflationary times you are talking about a monetary system with gold or semi-gold standar. Obviously a deflationary cicle would make gold go higher, since gold was the money used.

    But now gold is not the money used, its all completely different. So a deflationary cicle in dollars, will make gold go down (like we saw at the en of 2008, how does your theory explain that?).

    You are comparing two different things, you are using the data from when gold was the used money and predicting what will happen now that gold is not the money that is being used. Its just ridiculous and shows your little understanding about economy. You can not just look at graphs and get some conclusions without understanding the underlining changes.

    Now, there is going to be a deflationary bust again (probably very soon, maybe next week), but its going to be shorter and smaller than the 2008 one. Everything is going to go down a bit in respect to dollars (including gold), but its going to be short. And after that, inflation is going to start kicking strongly, and prices are going to start rising in respect to dollars (including gold), and the dollar is going to go to hell.

    Very short term, deflation in dollars. Medium and long term inflation in dollars, and deflation in gold. I am staying in gold, I dont play short time market.

  35. dashxdr says:

    The dollar index is a comparison of the dollar compared to other paper currencies.

    Dollar index returning to 82 means not that the dollar is stronger, it means the other paper is weaker. There is no gold or other precious metals measurement in the dollar index.

    Suppose the dollar index goes up to 82. Or 92. Or 102. Yet at the same time gold went to $4000/ounce.

    Would you rather hold paper (dollars) or gold?

    The dollar index is misdirection. If you want to make money on the FOREX trades, then pay attention to the dollar index. But it's just more paper speculation. All fiat paper is going to collapse. But if it collapses in lockstep, the sheep won't bray too much.

  36. Anonymous says:

    @dashxdr

    "Suppose the dollar index goes up to 82. Or 92. Or 102. Yet at the same time gold went to $4000/ounce."

    This is imposable, for when a currency gains in value (which the number 82, 92, and 102 represent, regardless of what you think) the value of commodities go down. And by taking this argument you are in fact making the same argument as Viper, which give credence to the idea that you two are the same.

  37. Claire says:

    FYI as far as negativity goes -
    I don't think anyone minds a contrarian view.

    Actually, I think it is good and necessary.

    I do think people should disagree without being ugly.

  38. Anonymous says:

    @Claire

    Ugly is a state of mind...

    Relative moral-ism is where it's at...

    Least you go around hating others for what they say, and do...

    You got better things to do then that girlfriend...

    clickity-clack!

  39. Claire says:

    No,

    Ugly = Threats, Profane or vulgar language, Demeaning people for their views, sexual harassment, etc

    Here in the U.S.A. it's called creating a "hostile work environment" and can land you in court/jail.

    It's good that Eric is not putting up with it.

  40. dashxdr says:

    The dollar index is a measure of the US dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies.

    Euro 57.6%
    Japanese yen 13.6%
    pound sterling 11.9%
    Canadian dollar 9.1%
    Swedish krona 4.2%
    swiss franc 3.6%

    And as you can see, each of those is a fiat currency as well, backed by nothing whatsoever.

    Source: Wikipedia
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index

    So let's all just pretend there is a fallacy in my argument that the US dollar index could go up while gold could go up even faster...

    Beware of false prophets, people.

  41. Anonymous says:

    @Claire

    You cannot equate a hostile work environment to what went on here...

    For one, one one's livelihood is not at stake...

    And two, you are not forced to come here day in and day out to make a living...

    I mean how you can equate the two is beyond me...

    But hay...

    You want want to push a moral superiority agenda...

    And falsely claim it to things that have no connection...

    Go right ahead...

    But many wont buy it...

    Not even the courts in America...

  42. Claire says:

    Anon,
    You are correct.

    You can go to court or jail for doing the above mentioned things - threats, public use of profanity, sexual harassment, in the public arena as well as in the work environment.

  43. Anonymous says:

    @Claire

    Yes, i do agree...

    In the work environment all the stuff that went on here would be unacceptable...

    And likely either get all parties involved fired...

    And then all the parties and the corporation sued by the victim(s)...

  44. Anonymous says:

    @Claire

    In the public arena however...

    It's hard prove without witnesses or evidence (threats and sexual harassment)...

    And the reason being is because any joe blow can walk up to you and claim you done those things...

    Swearing though...

    Most states either dropped that statute from the law books or don't enforce it...

    Note I stated most...

  45. Claire says:

    I was making an overall point that people should be expected to treat each other with a certain degree of respect.

    You obviously didn't get it.

    DON'T call me babe

  46. Anonymous says:

    Hey Eric,
    You do a great job. Viper person is a dolt. Obviously he is very jealous of you. Forgedaboutit!
    I am a member of the CBOT and know as much as most about the Grain mkt. I wish the people here would argue the merits of your post instead of ad hominum attacks.
    Look at the new post at inflation.us and it will tell you all you need to know....
    Eric, one thing though...how about just post a "major article"....
    Thanks, John in Chicago

  47. Anonymous says:

    first

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