Below are the comments made during the last five days from Agweb’s October Crop Comments.
(emphasis mine) [my comment]
10/30 - Central Illinois: Pam Smith, Farm Journal Seeds & Production Editor: Rain, rain, go away! See a drowning field of beans in central Illinois.
10/30 - Menard County, Central Illinois: I think it is time to remind everyone (or maybe you realize) that just because there is a week of dry weather in the forecast we are actually going to be harvesting for that whole week! Around here we are probably looking at 4 or 5 good drying days before we could consider getting back in the field, and we will still be making a mess. I also expect the Sangamon River and Salt Creek to come out of there banks today and tomorrow, affecting thousands of un-harvested acres. I would estimate that harvest progress for this area is: corn 20% complete, soybeans 40%. What a year…good luck.
10/30 - Bond County, South Central Illinois: UN-FREAKIN-BELIEVABLE.
10/30 - Huntington County, Northeast Indiana: We are having RAIN for the umpteenth time this month!! We still have 125 acres of beans to cut. And they are really good beans. Yielding really well. We have shelled a very small amount of corn and it was wetter than we have dried for several years. 25-30 moisture. We hope we have a lot of nice days in November. Stay safe and keep smiling.
10/30 - Western Walsh County, Northeast North Dakota: A couple good days came our way the first part of the week. We were able to combine the last 600 acres of wheat on Monday and Tuesday. It was all over 20%, but at least it's out of the fields, and holding in air bins while the grain dryer is running overtime. Lot's of edible beans still to be harvested in ND. We have not started on our beans yet...
10/30 - Audrain County, Mo.: Lindsey Benne, Beef Today and Dairy Today Art Director: Farmers are hauling in gravel to their fields just to get in and out.
-- Audrain County, Mo.
10/30 - Carlos, Minn.: It has been raining off and on for 3 weeks. We got a start to the beans 3 weeks ago, some of my neighbors were out on Tuesday the only day of full sun and wind that we had. The beans were between 18-28%. I don’t have the balls to try that yet. I thought we could go on Wednesday but at 10 am it started to drizzle and it has been raining ever since to get through the gloom we have put the carpenter belt on to do some remolding have a safe harvest say a pray for dry weather.
10/30 - Opole, Minn.: Rain, rain, go away, and come back next July day!!!
10/30 - Lafayette County Wis.: WET, WET, WET. I guess we are all in the same boat. We are way, way behind. Corn is developing green mold. Broker says when weather straightens out there is a big crop out there. Problem is will the sun ever shine again? Stay safe everyone…a safe harvest is a good harvest.
10/30 - Nebraska Panhandle: Guess we don't have to worry about the irrigated corn blowing over before harvest, the snow is holding it up!
-- Nebraska Panhandle
10/30 - Buena Vista County, Northwest Iowa: Raining here again, close to 10 inches now in October, Still some beans out in the fields here, I just got done, Yields decent in the 50's which is normal. Some have gave up on beans and started corn, most of it from what I've heard is anywhere from 20% to 40% moisture and yields from 120 to 220, with very low test weights. Stalk Rot now a real concern & some guys are finding green snap they didn't know they had, those yields cut in half. I believe this harvest, when it's over, if ever will be one, we all will want to forget!
10/30 - Cass County, Iowa: 1.4 in. of rain so far today and it's still raining. I've only run 80 acres of beans in October. It rains or drizzles nearly every day. Yields are great with beans 50 to 62 and most corn over 200 but wet @ 23 to 25%. It's going to be a long fall at this pace.
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10/29 - Hutchinson Kan.: Just after midnight Oct. 29, 2009. It is pouring down rain again. Still have beans to cut, still have wheat to plant. I am 50 years old and I have never planted wheat this late. 2010 wheat will be very pour when planted this late.
10/29 - East Central Missouri: 10 to 12 inches of rain since Oct. 8th. Two more inches expected tomorrow night. Most of corn and beans planted last week of June and first week of July. A lot of corn not black layered yet. Beans frosted and were defoliated. Don't know what the outcome will be. Only a small amount of corn not replanted is harvested. Most beans planted only once, but very little harvested. I know of first crop beans planted on July 19th. They were completely green when the frost hit. Good luck to everyone.
10/29 - Dane/Columbia counties, Wis.: Big problem -- I just checked my four different varieties of Pioneer corn. 70% has mold. Not advanced yet, but we have to start harvesting to get it down below 15%. Dealer denies there is a problem. I'm just waiting for these seed companies to continue there exorbitant prices. We have to lobby our representatives to allow us to us our home grown seeds for seed. Brazil and Argentina does not permit seed/chemical companies to restrict farmers.
10/29 - Obion County, Tenn.: Lot of corn harvested this week along with a few beans. Raining now will slow harvest the next few days. Harvested corn until 1 a.m. Thursday morning, many combines running and grain elevator was staying open. Looks like good weather the next few days after the wet system moves out farmers are way behind but with good weather we can catch up quick.
10/29 - Clark County, Ark.: If there were any doubts about how nasty it is down here this ought to answer those questions.
[Wow…]
-- Clark County, Ark.
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10/28 - Southern Will County, Ill., about fifty miles south of Chicago: So far this week we have received 7 tenths of rain, we need at least two more days without rain before ground conditions will support equipment. The only harvesting we have done (as with almost all other farmers in our area) was last Mon, Tue, Wed ( Oct 19-21), everyone was doing beans. When we started on Monday was about 16 + % and by late Tue and Wed we were taking some out around 13 %, our yields have been from upper 40s to low 50s. Bean harvest is about 30-40 % complete here, but does change rapidly in just a few miles, with more or less harvesting complete. We have not done any corn; you can probably drive ten miles in any direction and can only find a few corn fields where corn harvest has occurred. Those who have done corn report 29-35 + % moisture, they also say that in last 7-10 days have only lost one point, and no one has talked about yields. We have changed over to corn now, seems like no "bean weather" in near future, so if ground conditions improve and we miss the next forecast rain event, we will try some corn on Fri (Oct 30) and get some firsthand knowledge of what our moisture levels and yield.
10/28 - Ramsey County, Northeast North Dakota: Rain again with more rain & snow in the forecast for the next few days. We have only harvested 3 partial days in the past month. Pinto beans are less than 25% harvested, moisture has been over twenty on most, what is left will only be a salvage operation. Soybeans are less than 10% harvested, and they were upper teens to over twenty moisture. We had not planned to even try the corn until after Thanksgiving, may harvest it in the spring, did a lot last year and was pleasantly surprised by the increase in test weight and minimal loss.
10/28 - Lancaster, Pa.: We are wet and getting wetter. Harvest is at a standstill with 3 inches of rain in the past week. Corn moisture still running in the upper 20's. Quality will soon become an issue as well. It will be a challenge to get the remaining acres of small grain planted.
10/28 - Texas: Though cooler weather slowed down the advance of armyworms, the pest is still eating up pastures and small grain fields in many parts of the state, report Texas AgriLife Extension Service personnel.
[There were undoubtedly a lot of fields that weren’t sprayed in time…]-719058.jpg)
The line of demarcation is clearly visible in this Somervell County small grain field where the farmer stopped the advance of armyworms with a pesticide spraying. If the producer hadn’t sprayed, the pest would have quickly taken out the whole field, said Joshua Blanek, Texas AgriLife Extension Service agent for agriculture in Somervell County, southwest of Fort Worth. (Texas AgriLife Extension Service photo by Joshua Blanek)
10/28 - Gove County, Kan.: Normally I am winding up fall harvest and as of today I have not even started. Corn and milo is not drying down enough to the level needed to deliver to the local elevators. Field conditions are wet with water standing in many terraces and more moisture on the way. It is definitely a challenge ahead for the fall harvest!
10/28 - Richland County, Wis.: Lots of rain over 4" in last 2 weeks. Lots of corn has got mold some fields are not useable corn is all black on cob. lots off beans have water standing in them. More standing than cut in Richland County, Wis. Grant County is about the same; had fog that froze on crops this morning. Slow, slow, slow is what happening here.
10/28 - Far Northern Illinois: Many fields of soybeans untouched some corn being picked but hard to find corn under 30%. Mold is present on almost every ear I looked at yesterday. Stalk quality is starting to slip quickly in some fields. There simply is not enough drying capacity to harvest this crop with any speed. Most guys have drying capacity for a half day of harvesting and two big 12 row combines can bury the local elevator at 32% corn. Feels like a real disaster is just around the corner with any type of wind or snow event. We will be talking about the fall of 2009 for many years to come.
10/28 - Grinnell, Iowa: Pam Smith, Farm Journal Seeds & Production Editor: Tom Fry, Monsanto region agronomy lead, discusses the condition of the corn crop in his area and where SmartStax fits.
10/28 - Seven Springs, N.C.: Corn harvest is nearing completion with above average yields. Were seeing some 120-220 bpa over our acres, peanut harvest is half-way through with good yields over 2 tons/acre. Cotton harvest is slowly starting with yields being anywhere between 700-1500 lbs to the acre (all dryland).Soybean Harvest is still 2 weeks away. Tobacco is over and people are cutting ditchbanks and beginning to plant wheat. Have a Safe and Blessed Harvest Season.
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10/27 - Jackson County, Mich.: We got our beans done between showers; moisture was 17 high and 12.5 low yield just 50...still lots of beans in county to do yet.
10/27 - Bristolville, Ohio: Harvesting Soybeans with the New Holland TR85. Case 2390 pulling a Unverferth and DMI Gravity wagons.
10/27 - Central Michigan: Wet and getting wetter, soys are half done for us now were all in the same boat. This could get real bad real fast I've seen it before snow will be here before you know it. Some beans I am afraid are disc bait frosted green as grass and now are mush. Tested corn at 30-32.
10/27 - East Central Illinois: Still a lot of fields of soybeans untouched some corn being picked but still 22 to28 % I opened up a corn field of 109day corn planted May 22nd and found lots of moldy ears. The shucks on the ear where closed and no bird damage but are moldy from top to bottom. The Diplodia seems worse on the higher ground in the field.
10/27 - Roseau County, Northwest Minnesota: The corn is covered with mold. 40% moisture and the corn will be shot before we have a chance to harvest. Lots of wet beans and confection flowers have head rot are shelling out.
10/27 - Scotts Bluff County, Nebraska Panhandle: Following ten years of drought farmers trying to scratch out a living in the Nebraska panhandle were in seventh heaven when showers arrived on schedule this past spring; fast forward to October and sentiments couldn’t be worse. The rains we’d spent years praying for turned vicious....pounding fields so hard sprouting beans couldn’t break the surface, and delaying corn planting by soggy-weeks...not days. In addition to less-than-desirable planting conditions our summer was unusually cool and cloudy; harvest troubles were inevitable. As of October 26 eight percent of the dry edible beans remain un-harvested, farmers are slowly mudding-out the sugar beets, and corn is still running mid to upper twenties moisture. With area bins equipped with fans, not dryers, we’ve no recourse but to wait and pray.
In the past few weeks we’ve seen record snowfall, and rain measuring in inches...not the tenths our area is known for; the latest weather forecast says we have a 90% chance of 5 to 15 inches of snow accompanied by 55mph winds later this week. It looks as if this might be the year of ‘The Harvest’....the one retired farmers talk about when they’re old and grey.
”I remember 2009; you never saw anything like it......”
10/27 - Northwest Minnesota, along Canadian Border: We had a hard killing frost Sept 27th and now the corn has ear rot on 75 - 90% of the cobs. Federal Crop is releasing thousands of acres and corn choppers are going. There won't be many fields combined in NW MN. The moisture is 45%. Lots of beans left. Moisture is stuck at 18 - 20%.
10/27 - Greenfield, Ill.: More rain in Greenfield, Ill., says farmer Ross Prough.
10/27 - Ohio: Most of the beans are off a little bit of corn but is ever wet 25 to 35 percent moisture we dried some over the weekend and the test weight is 58 to 59 yields is better than we ever expected. No rain most of the summer 125 to 140 on ground that usually grows 175 to 200l plus but we will take it hoping tonight before the rain to get another 10,000 shelled.
10/27 - Dane/Columbia County, Wis.: Drizzle all day again. Neighbors are talking about mold forming on the tips of corn ears. Steam is really rolling out of neighbors dryer as he is trying to get started harvesting corn. 2/3 of my beans still in the field. Forecast - sunny tomorrow, cloudy on Wednesday, rain and snow mix after that.
10/27 - Miner County, S.D.: Just a few beans out with yields in fifties but moisture 18 to 19. Corn is thirty five or more. Have not turned a wheel on our farms. Brookings County bean yields in forty mainly with 30 to 50 % done. Very little corn. My farm beans were fifty one and 12% but lots of ground to cover, a most interesting year.
10/27 - Southwest Minnesota: We had 2.20 inches of rain from the 21 to the 22 and with it we had wet snow that gave us .35 inches of moisture. Maybe a quarter of the beans are out and I'm talking about a big area that is still standing in the field. Only spotty corn to test for moisture and it is 25 to 38% and most is in the 30 to 38% range. We have had 3.75 in. rain in the month of October. Fields were staying good for harvest but now have water standing in some low spots. Most all beans have been taken out with moisture in the 14 to 20% range. A lot of beans have been binned and air on them but we have not had any sunny days with low humidity. Elevators are drying beans. Yields have been in the 48 to 60 bu. range when harvested. A lot of money is due around the first of Nov. and we have not much crop harvested to fill contracts for new crop sales. We need everyone to be praying to God for help and to get us through this difficult time. He always makes it work out!!!!
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10/26 - Bond County, South Central Illinois: Is this really possible? We have had the wettest couple of months in history. Most corn is still 30% and they are calling for 2-3 more inches of rain this week. We are losing crop as we speak. Lodging in the corn is starting to take place. Any suggestions? I am ready to punt!!!!
10/26 - North Central Illinois: We tried about an acre of soybeans @ 17% so it's back to corn. The corn was running anywhere from 200-260 dry and the wet yield is even too wild to mention! This field was mainly running around 30-34% but the next field we went into was 38% so it was decided that we should stop for just a little bit. It has been raining so much that we really can't do much anyway.
10/26 - Fillmore County, southeast Minnesota: Got our beans harvested late Tuesday night, running about 53bpa+ before shrink. Just looked at a cob of corn and noticed now we have moldy corn, it wasn't entirely covered in mold but as if this year hasn't been difficult enough now we get this thrown at us.
10/26 - Central South Dakota: We have not turned a wheel. Corn 30-35% Sunflowers 24% as of yesterday. Flowers are starting to mold in the field and test wt. is light around 25 lbs after air drying. Rain all next week. A lot of talk that this harvest will finish up this spring. Corn does not dry after the first of Nov. here. Not good.
10/26 - Central Illinois: Pam Smith, Farm Journal Seeds & Production Editor: We're a soggy mess in Central Illinois. Rain gauges captured anywhere from 2.5 to 3.5 inches. A lot of crop came out of the field this week, but we still have a long way to go. This bean field sits southwest of Decatur. I should have said that we got that rain Thursday night and Friday morning.
-- Pam Smith, Farm Journal Seeds & Production Editor
10/26 - Floyd County, Iowa: We had 4 inches of rain Oct.20 thru Oct.24. Most are 60% to 70% done with beans, of which most were harvested too wet. Corn will vary from 21% to 38% in one pass across the field, rather unusual for 100 day corn planted before April 24th. Yields good, reports of dried corn test weight 48 to 53 lbs. Corn harvesting is practically non existent.
10/26 - Cedar County, Neb.: Sunshine is getting to be an abnormal object in the sky. We received 2" of rain Tuesday thru Friday and raining this mourning. Harvest is slow, we have two soybean fields out over the scale 69bu.irrigated and 50 on dryland well above average. Corn harvest looks to be great but very wet irr.250 dryland 200. Praying for sun and warm weather. Be careful; safety first!!!!
10/26 - East Central North Dakota: Total stand still in East Central North Dakota. Too wet to dig beets, too wet to combine soys, 1/2 or more of the dry beans left and too wet. Sunflower moisture went from 17 two weeks ago to 27 yesterday. And weather man says snow for Thursday, Saturday and Sunday of next week...Man are we in trouble...
10/26 - Benson County, Northeast North Dakota: Same old weather. Wet, wet, wet. Benson and Wells counties are 2 of the largest producers of Pinto Beans in the US. There might be 25% harvested. With rain and snow in the forecast for the next 10 days it is not looking good for any type of bean harvest. There are a lot of soybeans standing also but we have very little effect on total world production. Hopefully we can get the corn and sunflowers off. Preventive Plant is the only option right now for next year. Water standing all over.
10/26 - North Central, Campbell County, S.D.: Were able to attempt to combine beans only once this fall and that was a week ago. Rain, sprinkles and heavy cloud cover everyday. With forecast for upcoming week it looks like combines will be sitting til at least Friday. Frustrated like the rest of you as it looks like we are sitting on some real good yields. We did notice a touch of mold in some the corn that got hit by the early frost. Has anyone else noticed mold in their corn fields in the Dakotas? Everyone be safe once this harvest gets underway and good luck!.
…
10/26 - Western Dawson, Cozad, Lexington, Neb.: These were sent to me by a friend. Thought I would pass it along.
-- Western Dawson, Cozad, Lexington, Neb.
My reaction: I have said that I expect the 2009/10 crop to be down around 10% from last year, but I am beginning to think it might be worse than that…
email
Working on major article now, I hope to be done by late tonight.
blah blah blah
cut-n-paste cut-n-paste cut-n-paste
Crops are fine. Get a clue.
This blog sucks
Grains are ALL forming almost a perfect head and shoulders pattern:
See here: http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?jav=adv&vol=Y&grid=Y&divd=Y&org=stk&sym=CZ9&data=H&code=BSTK&evnt=adv
I live in Iowa...the harvest will MORE than meet demand based on everything I'm hearing. Technically speaking, we're looking at sub $2.25 corn by next summer/fall...LOOK AT THE CHARTS! They don't lie.
Anyone going long grains based on the advice of the writer of this blog needs to do their own due diligence before making that long trade...you may get bankrupted in the process if you aren't careful.
Christ guys...
I might not agree with these guys in that gold is where it's at...
But there is good information here...
And if your going to attack Eric, may I suggest to attack him on points...
Not just some bs one liner, especially about the cut and pasting...
I really want to see the major article though...
See we need people like Viper...
Attack on points!
I shorted 2 soybeans futures contracts today...my exit price is going to be $4.75/bushel.
Go to barchart.com, pull up the "monthly" chart for Corn...you'll see a CLEAR head and shoulders pattern---
Left shoulder: Oct. '06 - Aug. '07
Head: Sept. '07 - Nov. '08
Right shoulder: March '09 - RIGHT NOW!
Grains are getting ready to take a major fu*king DUMP!!!
Don't say you weren't warned.
By the way, the chart on soybeans looks even more perilous...it could be a sudden, huge DUMP...that's why I chose to short beans...I'll short corn once the right shoulder begins to dip...I'm looking for this to happen NEXT WEEK.
We're looking at a massive, unmitigated deflationary crash, guys. No if's, and's, or but's about it.
Other than shorting grains, in my opinion, the next best place to stash your savings is in gold and silver. Precious Metals do best during times of TRUE deflation...which is what we're going to get.
Unemployment will DOUBLE before we begin to rebound in 2014-2016.
Eric,
You're leading people down a path to ruin with this grains bullsh*t. Please stop now. Metals - Good; Grains - bad; Land - Bad.
Yo Eric,
The charts DON'T lie, as Viper said.
I'm beginning to think Eric is living in his parents basement, sitting in his boxers, playing blogger all day. Do you even have a job, Eric?
Didn't think so...
@Viper
Wow, a deflationist that believes in metals...
A rare breed indeed...
I like it!
And well said, and good use of the chart, and stating the pattern, to help your point.
Gold is money, nothing else.
Money is hoarded in delationary times.
People will flock to gold and to a lesser extent, silver once the true meltdown begins.
Last fall was just a warm-up. Next week is my target for "The Great Unwinding" to begin.
Be wary.
I'm from IL with alot of farmer friends. Talked to two friends today and neither one of them had started beans. Corn is testing at 30-35 percent moisture. Its NOT GOOD here, these guys are running out of time.
So you morons think all these local reports lie? WOW!
Im curious as to whether all you CHART guys have actually talked to farmers in IL, all of IA, NE and other states. The crops, overall SUCK!!! Eric's "down 10 percent" where I'm at is going to be way off. It will be alot higher.
Stop lookin at the charts on your mothers computer and go talk to the farmers.
This all seems like a similar experience I had two years ago when I thought crocs stock was way over priced at $70 a share. Then I went to about 100 stores and asked the clerks if they were still a red hot item. Most said that they were not selling like they used to. I shorted them at $65 and the stock dropped to $5 within months,,,,ka-ching. Eric is providing the same intel . It is my strong opinion that we will see a sharp rise across the board starting Monday. This week was options expiration and it was in the best interests of the criminals to push the price down into the close.
I've noticed a negative correlation between the volume of Eric's articles and the volume of the comments.
My guess is one of the anonymous posters is Eric himself, wasting time in the comments area of his own Blog.
That's just plain twisted.
dashxdr,
you need to get your head checked. i'm starting to think your the crazy one and not the anons.
you need to get your head checked.
Strong words, coming from a man wearing a mask.
dash...
i think the correlation you are talking to is somewhat short thought?
what if people are just starting to realize eric's blog because of economy? back in the days, i remember seeing no more than 10-20 happy readers but now there are always more than 40ish? or around at least.
i think my guess on the correlation sounds more fitting.
"you need to get your head checked.
Strong words, coming from a man wearing a mask."
another wrongful correlation you made here. just because he decided to go anonymous??? maybe he's just the guy who doesnt like being identified? how would that credit his opinion (whatever he said) ?
lets not pick up a weird fight like the last post.
I believe all the folks who don't believe grainprices won't go up shouldn't forget that Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China and India are about to experience foodshortages as well.
When they start buying grain then prices will go through the roof.
Viper said:
„… Gold is money, nothing else….“
Personally I think, Viper, that Eric never ever said anything against this.
On the other side (in my point of view):
1. you do not understand – what you are talking about;
2. you are using old charts to "predict future events". (there is no worse way for anticipations!)
1.
You are talking about „deflationary times“...(You probably mean „monetary deflationary times“.)
Since gold IS money (REAL one!) – it means definitely that DEFLATION will come in REAL money (i.e. gold)...
That is exactly what Eric talked in almost each article on his blog.
I.e. it will come to - „deflation“ in REAL money and commodities (because you and everybody at least must – eat!)
If you considerate yourself as „deflationist“ – for me it means automatically that you are "on the same line" as this funny figure „Mish“.
You are probably talking about USD „ deflationary times“ – which cannot be other that - terrible wrong.
USD – is NOT the „real money“ and since GOLD (as „REAL money“) are on demand – we can say and Eric said it many times on this blog – that we are, for sure, in „deflationary times“, BUT for GOLD and REAL „things“ (everything what we need to survive).
USD – will be destroyed on the demand for REAL „money and things“ since it is NOT kind of REAl money...
So, it is obvious that Eric is also „deflationist“ if you like it – BUT NOT as you or Mish.
The difference (in my point of view) is that you (and Mish) do not understand the base of the problem and look just in „2D“ or „sheet of paper problem".
Eric in difference to you two – look at the situation in „space“ (3D) i.e. in REAL space.
2.
To look on old charts and to expect that times (LESS than 15 YEARS!) – „will repeat“ – is actually way in which my 20-years young daughter does NOT believe anymore.
Even if those data could be interesting in researches - that is the worst possible „anticipation“ method.
Kind regards
Natasa
@Natasa
"To look on old charts... the worst possible 'anticipation' method."
First of all the charts that Viper told people to look at were current charts...
As a matter of fact from today all the way back to 2000...
You cannot get much more current then that...
Second, all those months are hardcore data, real data, in which investors can use mathematical probability analysis to spot trends...
This is very important, as a matter of fact all banks use this type of analysis, as well as all financial management and advisory companies (investment corporations)...
I mean when I talk about people being deaf and blind...
This example here embodies it right down to the bone...
The time is coming soon children, best to remove the scales from your eyes now...
Least you find yourself lost in the Hell that is to come...
OMG Psychopath is back again with his same tired song:
1) You are blind!
2) Be afraid, escape is impossible!
3) All your preparations are doomed to failure
4) HAHAHAHAHA!
We all know your message, psychopath. Any new thoughts? I won't expect any constructive ideas because I know you're incapable of them.
@dashxdr
You calling me a psychopath is kinda ironic...
I mean you claimed that I'm a government stooge who is only here to cause chaos...
You claimed I have created undue mental stress on you because you think I'm going to kill you...
You have threatened me with legal action...
You have claimed that others are impersonating me...
You claim that all anons wear masks and thus should be discounted, and are cowards...
And now the latest is that you think Eric himself is spending to much time in his comment section and not working on his master thesis...
And you call me the psychopath...
I swear the deaf and blind never stop amazing me over their stupidity...
Also I'm deaf (real), but I'm also amazed by stupidity of the people without knowledge and insights (or believe having it).
Eric is a clever contrarian monetarist. I like his articles.
I also predict hyperinflation in the near future (1-7years). But I will not say which the trigger would be...
Greetz
Yann
LOL Anon said:
"...First of all the charts that Viper told people to look at were CURRENT charts...
As a matter of fact from today all the 'WAY BACK to 2000...'"
*
Anon, as those chards reach only "way back to 2000" it is (i suppose) impossible to "anticipate any kind of feature events" because:
1. Historical (and economical) events are NOT cyclic.
There are perhaps some "similarities" - but any talk about "predictions" based on history - is doomed.
It is even worse - when you "base for predictions" reach - just "enormously long 10 years"!
2. Each talk about "shoulders and heads" in diagram from PAST for future "predictions" - is so WRONG that I do not see any reason to explain it neither.
Simply, some people believe that if they "find a correct form" in some chart - they will be able to "predict" future events...
haha...
Do you find any of such anywhere LOL-Anon?
Probably those you are found are already extreme rich,since they "have algorithm" for future predictions...
(...and you will never share this knowledge with us, LOL-Anon, because you planed to use it too...)
haha....
Anyway, kind regards
Natasa
I've noticed a negative correlation between the volume of Eric's articles and the volume of the comments.
My guess is one of the anonymous posters is Eric himself, wasting time in the comments area of his own Blog.
That's just plain twisted.
Could it be that when eric goes a long time without posting , the comments are all focused on this last post.They are not spread as thinly as when he makes a lot of posts?
More worrying is Erics delays.
he first mentioned it months ago i think.
then it going to be tomorrow.
then another 24 hours.
then another 24 hours.
then 12.
then 1 post to keep us going.
Whatever he wrote at the begining of his article weeks ago, is more than likely out of date by now.
How hard can it be to judge when you will finish writing something?
A lot easier than judging the future price of soybeans i susspect.
R
O
We will know when the SH*T is about read to HIT the FAN when the following happens:
Gold up
Dollar up
EVERYTHING else down...way, way down.
Be wary.
As for reading charts.
In a heavily manipulated market, how can charts mean much?
the people suppressing the price would corrupt the chart pattern.
Like in the kitco gold chart. If price of gold is manipulated like people say it is.Then the manipulators could draw pretty pictures in the kitco gold chart if they wanted to.Where does that leave your head and sholders pridictive powers?
R
O
Mr. Pinnion,
I agree; comex gold likely is manipulated; however, grains to a large degree are not.
We're talking about GRAIN charts, are we not?
In addition to my normal evening workouts, I've just committed to doing 100,000 pushups by Dec. 31, 2010 (14 months).
Every hour, in my office, I'm going to pump out 35-40 of those bad boys until I get to 100,000...wonder what my bench press will go up to after I do this...
God help us:
http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=116035
@Viper
You better watch out...
You maybe labeled a psychopath by the undesirables here...
Anon,
With due respect, you do seem like a bit of a nut. Sorry if this hurts your feelings; just calling it like I see it.
Eric,
Do you pack fudge?
@Viper
It's ok...
Call me what you will...
It matters not...
For in the end all men will be equal...
As each lay dead in their graves...
Anon,
Are you threatening me?
ERIC!
Where's your "major article"?
Do you have writer's block...or maybe cut-n-paste block????
LOLOLOLOL!!!!!
Dec. 31, 2010:
Gold- $1,425
Silver- $28.70
USD Index- 86.22
Corn- $2.97
Soybeans- $6.03
DOW- 6463
S&P- 702
"Official" Unemployment- 13.5%
Notice that Eric removed the reference to his upcoming blockbuster of a MAJOR ARTICLE from the front page...guess he was tired of getting picked on.
Now that he's been shown to be wrong on grain prices, I wonder if he'll even make another post...he might even shut this blog down. It's been a monumental failure anyway...since his purpose was to get investment dollars for his Russian Adventure...yeah, right...not gonna' happen.
Why pick on Eric? We all ought to thank him for having his blog, otherwise none of us would have a place to whine.
With no sarcasm at all, I for one appreciate your blog, Eric. Sorry about all the negativism here.
Dash,
The content on this blog is worthless. Eric diagnosis of the world around him is as backwards as can be...he is literally leading people down a path to sure financial ruin.
I refuse to stand silently by and watch him mislead people. This blog should be shut down...when the grain markets DUMP next week, I predict Eric will shut this thing down in shame.
As strange as it is...
I agree with dashxdr...
I'm grateful for the insights of Eric's blog...
Even though such insights focus on a narrow ideology of monetization of debt...
He none-the-less is one of few speculators who is calling for inflation...
Let alone inflation in less then six months, as well as the collapse of the dollar...
Regardless of the masses calling for deflation...
Eric stands firm in his convictions...
And seeks out those things that confirm such a conviction...
Willing to share his findings and ideas to the world, the ultimate expression of his conviction...
The world now awaits your master thesis Eric...
Viper,
It is rely strange what you are saying now...
Why to "shout down" this blog?
And WHO is suppose to do it?
Everybody has right and possibility to be "ruined" - and it is hopefully just personal decision.
There are thousands of economic blogs around Net - and should "they" shout down every you do not like?
Besides, Eric suggested to everyone each time - "buy gold"!
What is wrong with it?
(... and what is wrong with you?...)
You do not agreed with grain prediction...
OK... So what?
If you do not want to buy agricultural land - you can buy gold.
Does anyone else think that Viper and dashxdr might be the same individual? They seem to use the same phrases, but in opposites. I mean, how twisted would you have to be to post contrary opinions on the same forum, just to boost your own ego?
Attention!!!!
The following domains have just been listed for sale on www.Sedo.com with NO MINIMUM BID!
Broadscape.com
DarkCastle.com
BeachMarket.com
Good Luck!
The United States produces 41% of the world’s corn and 38% of the world’s soybeans. These crops comprise two of the four largest sources of caloric energy produced and are thus critical for world food supply.
Natasa,
Eric advocates buying gold - yes; however, he doesn't understand WHY one should buy gold. He's got EVERYTHING BACKWARDS.
By the way, most "financial bloggers" either think we're going to get hyperinflation (Eric), or massive deflation with metals going down too (Mish, Dennig)...they're all wrong.
Precious Metals - up.
US Dollar - up.
Everything else...way, way down.
Koo Koo Ka Choo!
Hey,
Eric's gold article just got posted on the main page at www.24hgold.com.
I'm shocked, really. Fekete, Mish, Jim Willie, etc. are guys who get posted over there.
Kudos, Eric...kudos. I don't think you know what you're talking about, but that's a great place to get exposure...good luck.
Viper,
Personally I think that Eric is the best of all those guys you are mentioned.
As I see, you are impressed with dr Jim Willie.
Please read what he thing about this last "semi-lifeless US$ rally":
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/1029.html
I wonder how many of these "birds" are hovering in the skies above us right now in the u.s.:
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20091030/D9BLCV581.html
Jim Willie is top of my list. Eric's older stuff is right up there, lately he's been producing less and less.
Fekete is always an interesting read, even if certain fundamental theories he gloms onto are hopelessly flawed. He actually believed there was no upper limit to bond values, such that every time the bond yield is cut by 50%, all the existing bonds would have to double in value. Madness! But he is good when he talks about the dangers of fiat currency without gold backing.
Mish is beneath contempt. I can't even read the titles of his articles anymore.
Dash,
Fekete is right regarding the bond values...that's a dirty little secret that almost noone knows about...
That's all I can say about that:)
Where is Eric's "major article"...I'm sitting on the edge of my seat! LOL!
Dear Mr. Eric,
I have sensitive information in my possession regarding that what have written about on the 24hgold.com website. How may I contact you?
Speaking of charts... Anon said, "This is very important, as a matter of fact all banks use this type of analysis, as well as all financial management and advisory companies (investment corporations)..."
The statement above lacks credibility in the complete sense of the word. Aren't those the same 'charts' people that failed to see the financial crash, who would have gone completely bankrupt if not for all of those worldwide government bail-outs?
@Anonymous
"The statement above lacks credibility in the complete sense of the word. Aren't those the same 'charts' people that failed to see the financial crash, who would have gone completely bankrupt if not for all of those worldwide government bail-outs?"
First, it's about the data which the charts represent, for without the data there would be no charts...
Second, in conjunction with the data and the use of mathematical probability equations an analysis is done to spot trends...
Third, no matter what you believe those in power of both government and the financial institutions knew that the crash was coming...
If they told the public what is really going on you would have anarchy in a matter of hours throughout the whole nation...
Besides, the power-elite could care less about average joe blow...
As long as he pays his taxes and does what he's told, he is controlled and subdued...
And finally forth, those charts where about corn data...
Prices on agriculture commodities had nothing to do with the crash...
I forgot to add...
Eric, please for the love of dashxdr's unholy soul...
Can we get the big article soon...
dashxdr's unholy soul...
I freely admit I have no soul.
Does anyone else think that Viper and dashxdr might be the same individual?
I suppose you'd have to just take my word for it, but I've never posted anonymously as Viper.
I will confess I did, long ago, post a single taunting comment as anonymous, I said something like "@Anon this dashxdr fellow really seems to get under your skin, why is that?"
Now Viper is saying there is another Viper that is posting these URL's to parked domain names.
It's freakin' me out. Too many hand puppets. Sometimes I wonder if I'm the only real person here and everyone else is a sophisticated web bot.
Incidentally Eric's article appeared on GATA's site:
http://www.gata.org/node/7954
Once in a while Eric's articles appear elsewhere.
I agree with Natasa - Eric has every right to post his opinions and provide investment information and options to those who may be interested.
I also think his blog is one of the finest and I have no reason to believe he is a dishonest. person
Additionally, if all it took was some statistics and charts to figure this out, you Vipers etc. wouldn't be sitting around reading this blog.
About a year ago, Eric had posted some general a well as particular advice on equity investing - categories of investment as well as individual stocks.
I followed it and nearly everything I've got is up 30-40%
Lastly, Congratulations, Eric.
If you weren't onto something all these people wouldn't be so hot and bothered.
Eric, stick to the research. The "sky is falling" articles do not suite you.
Viper, you need to get a clue about metals, specially gold.
You said that metals do good in deflationary times because gold is money. I agree it is, but with the monetary system we have the money people is using is dollars.
When you say historically gold has done better during deflationary times you are talking about a monetary system with gold or semi-gold standar. Obviously a deflationary cicle would make gold go higher, since gold was the money used.
But now gold is not the money used, its all completely different. So a deflationary cicle in dollars, will make gold go down (like we saw at the en of 2008, how does your theory explain that?).
You are comparing two different things, you are using the data from when gold was the used money and predicting what will happen now that gold is not the money that is being used. Its just ridiculous and shows your little understanding about economy. You can not just look at graphs and get some conclusions without understanding the underlining changes.
Now, there is going to be a deflationary bust again (probably very soon, maybe next week), but its going to be shorter and smaller than the 2008 one. Everything is going to go down a bit in respect to dollars (including gold), but its going to be short. And after that, inflation is going to start kicking strongly, and prices are going to start rising in respect to dollars (including gold), and the dollar is going to go to hell.
Very short term, deflation in dollars. Medium and long term inflation in dollars, and deflation in gold. I am staying in gold, I dont play short time market.
i think eric has built up this major article too much.
It can never meet expectations.
He did even mention that , when released, it might even have an effect on the market.
Now thats a big claim.(you can search the archives for it if u want as i cannot be arsed).
Which leads me to believe he might be waiting for the markets to turn to release the article so he can claim some credit for it .
For what its worth i have enjoyed reading erics blog, and i thank him for his efforts.
But that does not mean i m not going to write negative stuff when i think its deserved.
It just bug me when people complain about negative posts.They are Sheeple , just following a different leader.
I dont think Dashxdr and Viper are the same.
I dont think theres anything wrong with the cut and past style of this blog. A few accurate words at the end of the posts are worth 10 000 words of BS.Numonics posts for instance.
After all , alll we want to know is where the prices will be in the future.
I like Vipers bold predictions, though details on his thinking would be nice.
I like erics bold predictions also.
I dont pretend to know who is right, but the time is surely getting close to finding out.
I ve placed my bets.
And one more thing. Viper and anonymous bug me in the same way.In that they claim to KNOW certain things ARE going to happen, but never give details.I think the just like to sound spoooky.....
PS A close friend ,with trusted high level contacts has told me that .... no ...wait.. i ve said too much already.
Regards
Ozzymandis
@mr pinnion
I have said it all before...
The proof is in my talk about war and the rise of the dollar...
More proof is dashxdr always stating "82"...
He mocks me about making that statement, but little does he know that we are going to reach that soon, and possibly surpass it...
It all depends on how the flight out of the stock market goes...
And all the talk about chaos and the value of gold going down when it arrives...
Well, even Eric agreed with me in one of his responses, but he was quick also to say that such a time wont last forever...
But one never knows what events will transpire in such uncertain times, because small things become big things and can accelerate the madness of uncertainly while the chaos spreads...
But as they say...
Everything in life is a risk...
The dollar index is a comparison of the dollar compared to other paper currencies.
Dollar index returning to 82 means not that the dollar is stronger, it means the other paper is weaker. There is no gold or other precious metals measurement in the dollar index.
Suppose the dollar index goes up to 82. Or 92. Or 102. Yet at the same time gold went to $4000/ounce.
Would you rather hold paper (dollars) or gold?
The dollar index is misdirection. If you want to make money on the FOREX trades, then pay attention to the dollar index. But it's just more paper speculation. All fiat paper is going to collapse. But if it collapses in lockstep, the sheep won't bray too much.
@dashxdr
"Suppose the dollar index goes up to 82. Or 92. Or 102. Yet at the same time gold went to $4000/ounce."
This is imposable, for when a currency gains in value (which the number 82, 92, and 102 represent, regardless of what you think) the value of commodities go down. And by taking this argument you are in fact making the same argument as Viper, which give credence to the idea that you two are the same.
FYI as far as negativity goes -
I don't think anyone minds a contrarian view.
Actually, I think it is good and necessary.
I do think people should disagree without being ugly.
@Claire
Ugly is a state of mind...
Relative moral-ism is where it's at...
Least you go around hating others for what they say, and do...
You got better things to do then that girlfriend...
clickity-clack!
No,
Ugly = Threats, Profane or vulgar language, Demeaning people for their views, sexual harassment, etc
Here in the U.S.A. it's called creating a "hostile work environment" and can land you in court/jail.
It's good that Eric is not putting up with it.
The dollar index is a measure of the US dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies.
Euro 57.6%
Japanese yen 13.6%
pound sterling 11.9%
Canadian dollar 9.1%
Swedish krona 4.2%
swiss franc 3.6%
And as you can see, each of those is a fiat currency as well, backed by nothing whatsoever.
Source: Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index
So let's all just pretend there is a fallacy in my argument that the US dollar index could go up while gold could go up even faster...
Beware of false prophets, people.
@Claire
You cannot equate a hostile work environment to what went on here...
For one, one one's livelihood is not at stake...
And two, you are not forced to come here day in and day out to make a living...
I mean how you can equate the two is beyond me...
But hay...
You want want to push a moral superiority agenda...
And falsely claim it to things that have no connection...
Go right ahead...
But many wont buy it...
Not even the courts in America...
Anon,
You are correct.
You can go to court or jail for doing the above mentioned things - threats, public use of profanity, sexual harassment, in the public arena as well as in the work environment.
@Claire
Yes, i do agree...
In the work environment all the stuff that went on here would be unacceptable...
And likely either get all parties involved fired...
And then all the parties and the corporation sued by the victim(s)...
@Claire
In the public arena however...
It's hard prove without witnesses or evidence (threats and sexual harassment)...
And the reason being is because any joe blow can walk up to you and claim you done those things...
Swearing though...
Most states either dropped that statute from the law books or don't enforce it...
Note I stated most...
Where the hell did clair get the sexual harrasment idea from?
I think its that sort of attitude thats draging the western world down.
Ambulance chases. sueing employers because they called a woman babe.
People who spend their time , just waiting to be offended so they can go cry to the law.So loads of money gets wasted paying lawyers to protect someones delicate feelings.
Does nt happen in china.
they would laugh in your face.
Thats why thet are taking over the world.
Grow up .If you cannot bear to hear a swear word then dont go into a bar. If you cannot bear reading a swear word, and it causes u destress then the next few years are going to be very tough for delicate souls such as yourselfs.
The western world is going to get a lot tougher babe.
You ll look back in a few years time and you wont believe people wasted money taking other people to court for hurt feelings.
You people.I mean people like clair, want to wake up and smell the coffee.
I was making an overall point that people should be expected to treat each other with a certain degree of respect.
You obviously didn't get it.
DON'T call me babe
How did i know you would take offence about being called babe , lol
Feminism, red in tooth and claw lol. x
R
O
@Claire & mr pinnion
Children, children; I implore you...
This be a house of good communication, not one of hate speak...
We can all get along under this house of ivory and golden towers...
And in so doing we shall reap the benefits of the golden calf...
And we all know what those benefits are...
Living in the land of milk and honey...
To never worry, nor want for shelter, clothing or food...
That others will bow to our greatness as they see that our worship and faith in the golden calf, which was pure and never wavered, ...
Was paid off by wealth untold...
So let us not engage in hostilities between ourselves children...
For to do so would be to forfeit those beneficial promises that the golden calf have given us, its dedicated followers...
Now let us turn to our golden calf figures, that all of us have, and recite after me:
"Barukh ata Adonai, Eloheinu, melekh ha‑olam, bo're p'ri ha‑etz"
And now children the blessing of peace and abundance granted by the golden calf has been reaffirmed for you...
Also know that each of you has been forgiven of your transgressions that was done in our holy tower of ivory and gold...
And as you go about your day, never forget these blessings and the kindness that the golden calf as has given you...
"Shalom aleichem"...
Hey Eric,
You do a great job. Viper person is a dolt. Obviously he is very jealous of you. Forgedaboutit!
I am a member of the CBOT and know as much as most about the Grain mkt. I wish the people here would argue the merits of your post instead of ad hominum attacks.
Look at the new post at inflation.us and it will tell you all you need to know....
Eric, one thing though...how about just post a "major article"....
Thanks, John in Chicago
The golden calfs got a fair point.
i ll give it a go.
"Barukh ata Adonai, Eloheinu, melekh ha‑olam, bo're p'ri ha‑etz"
Wow.... it works....
So much love.. yeah ,i ged it now.
I take it all back claire.
R
O
first
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