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Outstanding Soybean Export Sales
Here are a couple of notes to help understand the data below:
1) Outstanding soybean export sales represent the amount of soybeans that have been sold but not yet exported.
2) At any point in time, it is possible to buy "old crop" soybeans (already harvested) or "new crop" soybeans (which will be harvested next year).
3) Outstanding soybean export sales rise until harvest and then go down as soybeans start being exported.
4) If there are soybean export sales outstanding at year end, these sales are rolled over into the next year
Soybean Export Sales Outstanding (Metric Tons) | |||||
Crop Year | |||||
2005/06 | 2006/07 | 2007/08 | 2008/09 | 2009/10 | |
04-Sep | 60,000 | ||||
04-Oct | 63,000 | ||||
04-Nov | 63,000 | ||||
04-Dec | 63,000 | ||||
05-Jan | 95,980 | ||||
05-Feb | 113,693 | ||||
05-Mar | 545,567 | ||||
05-Apr | 853,722 | ||||
05-May | 899,082 | ||||
05-Jun | 1,232,947 | ||||
05-Jul | 1,488,641 | ||||
05-Aug | 2,932,473 | 2006/07 | |||
05-Sep | 5,808,523 | 0 | |||
05-Oct | 5,672,494 | 0 | |||
05-Nov | 3,926,043 | 0 | |||
05-Dec | 4,375,065 | 146,000 | |||
06-Jan | 4,402,627 | 224,805 | |||
06-Feb | 3,406,156 | 453,960 | |||
06-Mar | 1,785,507 | 792,646 | |||
06-Apr | 1,508,889 | 2,553,851 | |||
06-May | 1,808,506 | 2,795,511 | |||
06-Jun | 1,943,079 | 3,256,711 | |||
06-Jul | 1,841,694 | 3,482,484 | |||
06-Aug | 813,820 | 5,101,281 | 2007/08 | ||
06-Sep | Sales | 8,592,069 | 152,000 | ||
06-Oct | Outstanding | 7,852,785 | 152,000 | ||
06-Nov | At Year End | 7,068,143 | 212,000 | ||
06-Dec | 6,886,248 | 225,607 | |||
07-Jan | 6,778,030 | 233,046 | |||
07-Feb | 5,217,091 | 334,646 | |||
07-Mar | 3,789,388 | 373,806 | |||
07-Apr | 2,666,557 | 958,785 | |||
07-May | 2,391,829 | 3,908,373 | |||
07-Jun | 2,189,904 | 4,084,253 | |||
07-Jul | 2,149,014 | 4,571,685 | |||
07-Aug | 946,268 | 6,814,244 | 2008/09 | ||
07-Sep | Sales | 8,752,920 | 0 | ||
07-Oct | Outstanding | 8,069,255 | 19,500 | ||
07-Nov | At Year End | 9,797,062 | 209,222 | ||
07-Dec | 9,040,562 | 354,575 | |||
08-Jan | 7,985,713 | 532,540 | |||
08-Feb | 6,137,709 | 570,213 | |||
08-Mar | 4,380,553 | 1,152,842 | |||
08-Apr | 4,210,197 | 1,278,232 | |||
08-May | 3,590,785 | 2,550,297 | |||
08-Jun | 2,786,885 | 5,053,919 | |||
08-Jul | 2,223,125 | 6,549,093 | |||
08-Aug | 888,059 | 7,598,538 | 2009/10 | ||
08-Sep | Sales | 9,960,217 | 0 | ||
08-Oct | Outstanding | 10,002,895 | 1,500 | ||
08-Nov | At Year End | 8,026,235 | 10,221 | ||
08-Dec | 6,850,823 | 26,368 | |||
09-Jan | 6,359,168 | 63,097 | |||
09-Feb | 4,705,346 | 157,949 | |||
09-Mar | 3,954,487 | 1,047,977 | |||
09-Apr | 4,851,279 | 2,520,691 | |||
09-May | 4,442,858 | 3,828,186 | |||
09-Jun | 3,333,238 | 4,678,812 | |||
09-Jul | 3,163,503 | 9,675,157 | |||
09-Aug | 2,216,016 | 14,094,637 | |||
09-Sep | Sales | 19,426,479 | |||
09-Oct | Outstanding | 17,794,860 | |||
09-Nov | At Year End | 15,116,309 | |||
-731291.PNG)
Two points to notice about outstanding soybean export sales data above:
1) At the end of 2008/09, these was a huge about of amount of soybean sales outstanding, 2,216,016 MT. This means the exporters couldn't find enough soybeans to make good on the 36,069,606 MT they sold last year. Basically, the US ran out of soybeans in August 2009, and the beginning US stock of soybeans should be considered zero for 2009/10.
2) The huge backlog of soybean exports sales outstanding at the end of 2009.
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Net Monthly Soybean Sales (Metric Tons) | |||||
Crop Year | |||||
2005/06 | 2006/07 | 2007/08 | 2008/09 | 2009/10 | |
September | 60,000 | 0 | 152,000 | 0 | 0 |
October | 3,000 | 0 | 0 | 19,500 | 1,500 |
November | 0 | 0 | 60,000 | 189,722 | 8,721 |
December | 0 | 146,000 | 13,607 | 145,353 | 16,147 |
January | 32,980 | 78,805 | 7,439 | 177,965 | 36,729 |
February | 17,713 | 229,155 | 101,600 | 37,673 | 94,852 |
March | 431,874 | 338,686 | 39,160 | 582,629 | 890,028 |
April | 308,155 | 1,761,205 | 584,979 | 125,390 | 1,472,714 |
May | 45,360 | 241,660 | 2,949,588 | 1,272,065 | 1,307,495 |
June | 333,865 | 461,200 | 175,880 | 2,503,622 | 850,626 |
July | 255,694 | 225,773 | 487,432 | 1,495,174 | 4,996,345 |
August | 1,443,832 | 2,992,458 | 2,242,559 | 1,049,445 | 4,419,480 |
Sales Outstanding | |||||
from prior year | 624,737 | 813,820 | 946,268 | 888,059 | 2,216,016 |
September | 2,987,880 | 2,740,257 | 2,271,755 | 1,954,888 | 3,856,748 |
October | 3,176,840 | 3,218,664 | 2,489,370 | 4,701,103 | 3,305,915 |
November | 1,719,113 | 3,654,749 | 5,640,108 | 2,410,562 | 4,480,046 |
December | 3,546,560 | 3,009,011 | 2,667,393 | 2,798,938 | |
January | 2,695,319 | 2,978,559 | 3,271,693 | 4,078,793 | |
February | 1,919,008 | 2,204,310 | 1,745,406 | 2,658,176 | |
March | 1,694,082 | 2,070,288 | 1,250,329 | 2,008,950 | |
April | 832,720 | 772,245 | 1,748,304 | 3,345,926 | |
May | 1,301,466 | 1,054,696 | 1,169,469 | 1,292,335 | |
June | 1,338,775 | 1,012,944 | 641,091 | 306,218 | |
July | 928,331 | 799,457 | 958,878 | 1,481,209 | |
August | 626,792 | 430,615 | (276,779) | 545,911 | |
Total Sales | 26,324,096 | 31,234,557 | 31,337,529 | 36,069,606 | 27,953,362 |
Total Exports | 25,510,276 | 30,288,289 | 30,449,470 | 33,853,590 | 12,837,053 |
Sales Outstanding | |||||
At Year End | 813,820 | 946,268 | 888,059 | 2,216,016 | 15,116,309 |
= Partial year (2009/10) | |||||
-736239.PNG)
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Monthly Soybean Exports (Metric Tons) | |||||
Crop Year | |||||
2005/06 | 2006/07 | 2007/08 | 2008/09 | 2009/10 | |
September | 736,567 | 1,436,950 | 1,279,347 | 481,268 | 749,922 |
October | 3,312,869 | 3,957,948 | 3,173,035 | 4,658,425 | 4,928,534 |
November | 3,465,564 | 4,439,391 | 3,912,301 | 4,387,222 | 7,158,597 |
December | 3,097,538 | 3,190,906 | 3,423,893 | 3,974,350 | |
January | 2,667,757 | 3,086,777 | 4,326,542 | 4,570,448 | |
February | 2,915,479 | 3,765,249 | 3,593,410 | 4,311,998 | |
March | 3,314,731 | 3,497,991 | 3,007,485 | 2,759,809 | |
April | 1,109,338 | 1,895,076 | 1,918,660 | 2,449,134 | |
May | 1,001,849 | 1,329,424 | 1,788,881 | 1,700,756 | |
June | 1,204,202 | 1,214,869 | 1,444,991 | 1,415,838 | |
July | 1,029,716 | 840,347 | 1,522,638 | 1,650,944 | |
August | 1,654,666 | 1,633,361 | 1,058,287 | 1,493,398 | |
Total Exports | 25,510,276 | 30,288,289 | 30,449,470 | 33,853,590 | 12,837,053 |
US Soybean | |||||
Production | 83,507,000 | 87,001,000 | 72,859,000 | 80,536,000 | 90,330 |
= Insane USDA estimate for 2009/10 production | |||||
-732378.PNG)
-737685.PNG)
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Accumulated Soybean Exports (Metric Tons) | |||||
Crop Year | |||||
2005/06 | 2006/07 | 2007/08 | 2008/09 | 2009/10 | |
September | 736,567 | 1,436,950 | 1,279,347 | 481,268 | 749,922 |
October | 4,049,436 | 5,394,898 | 4,452,382 | 5,139,693 | 5,678,456 |
November | 7,515,000 | 9,834,289 | 8,364,683 | 9,526,915 | 12,837,053 |
December | 10,612,538 | 13,025,195 | 11,788,576 | 13,501,265 | |
January | 13,280,295 | 16,111,972 | 16,115,118 | 18,071,713 | |
February | 16,195,774 | 19,877,221 | 19,708,528 | 22,383,711 | |
March | 19,510,505 | 23,375,212 | 22,716,013 | 25,143,520 | |
April | 20,619,843 | 25,270,288 | 24,634,673 | 27,592,654 | |
May | 21,621,692 | 26,599,712 | 26,423,554 | 29,293,410 | |
June | 22,825,894 | 27,814,581 | 27,868,545 | 30,709,248 | |
July | 23,855,610 | 28,654,928 | 29,391,183 | 32,360,192 | |
August | 25,510,276 | 30,288,289 | 30,449,470 | 33,853,590 | |
-733803.PNG)
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My reaction: The numbers and charts above make clear that there will be a severe shortage of soybeans in 2010. To make this perfectly clear how bad the picture is, I decided to look at the supply/demand picture for 2009/10.
Predicting total 2009/10 exports using outstanding export sales data
On average, total soybean exports for the last eight years has been 3.6 times the peak in outstanding export sales.
Peak in | Acc Exports / | ||
Accumulated | Outstanding | Peak outstanding | |
Crop year | Exports | Export Sales | sales |
2001/02 | 29,926,021 | 6,445,789 | 4.6 |
2002/03 | 29,102,246 | 8,499,004 | 3.4 |
2003/04 | 24,176,072 | 8,261,700 | 2.9 |
2004/05 | 29,966,013 | 8,206,497 | 3.7 |
2005/06 | 25,510,276 | 5,808,523 | 4.4 |
2006/07 | 30,288,289 | 8,592,069 | 3.5 |
2007/08 | 30,449,470 | 9,797,062 | 3.1 |
2008/09 | 33,853,590 | 10,002,895 | 3.4 |
Average | 3.6 |
If the pattern from the last eight years holds true, 2009/10’s peak outstanding export sales of 19 MMT implies total exports of nearly 70 MMT for the crop year.
2009/10 peak outstanding export sales | 19,426,479 | ||
3.6 | |||
Implied exports for 2009/10 | 69,935,324 | ||
Average US Soybean Crush over last 4 yrs
Monthly US Soybean Crush Data | ||||
Crop Year | ||||
2005/06 | 2006/07 | 2007/08 | 2008/09 | |
September | 3,459,181 | 3,737,301 | 3,805,586 | 3,276,153 |
October | 4,105,779 | 4,218,045 | 4,217,772 | 3,902,693 |
November | 3,944,497 | 4,033,357 | 3,993,894 | 3,794,428 |
December | 3,871,340 | 4,059,593 | 4,243,165 | 3,668,363 |
January | 3,963,902 | 4,051,319 | 4,148,780 | 3,785,746 |
February | 3,537,917 | 3,559,281 | 3,780,928 | 3,501,828 |
March | 3,887,860 | 4,027,723 | 4,032,459 | 3,735,587 |
April | 3,559,118 | 3,775,404 | 3,809,315 | 3,650,074 |
May | 3,772,981 | 3,901,522 | 3,919,158 | 3,869,272 |
June | 3,574,168 | 3,853,323 | 3,633,690 | 3,623,674 |
July | 3,881,709 | 3,878,933 | 3,620,653 | 3,290,959 |
August | 3,663,519 | 3,743,942 | 3,311,670 | 3,064,984 |
Total US | ||||
Soybean Crush | 45,221,971 | 46,839,743 | 46,517,070 | 43,163,761 |
Average | 45,435,636 | |||
Implied soybean demand for 2009/10
Average US Soybean Crush over last 4 yrs | 45,435,636 | ||
Implied exports for 2009/10 | 69,935,324 | ||
Implied soybean demand for 2009/10 | 115,370,960 | ||
VS | |||
2009/10 US Soybean Production (USDA est) | 90,330,000 | ||
Average Soybean Production over last 4 yrs | 80,975,750 | ||
Conclusion: Even if the USDA’s insane predictions for a record soybean crop miraculously come true, the supply/demand numbers for 2009/10 still don’t add up.
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There is this sci-fi book by Larry Niven called The Ringworld Engineers where there is this guardian that is trying to protect the lives of around 20 trillion humanoids.
There is a problem with this big artifact where they all live (the ringworld). It is sliding into the sun and will eventually be destroyed.
The guardian has a solution to save the ringworld and 95% of the people, but doing so would kill 5% due to radiation poisoning. So she can't do it.
Instead she opts for a solution that just buys some time -- she shows down the rate at which the structure is sliding into the sun. It's still going to be destroyed and everyone is going to die, but she at least got 20 trillion people another year of life.
I wonder if such thinking is going on right now. Do these eggheads in control think of themselves as heroes? Maintaining the illusion of business as usual for just a little bit longer?
But at what cost?
It's like their long term strategy is depending on, "Ok, at some point a miracle happens..."
Eric, this is interesting article of food crisis in China
Sincerly
Yann
You should be glad that they are doing everything to maintain the illusion of business as usual, as it gives you a lot of time to prepare by buying gold etc. There will be a time when there will be no gold available. There is already worldwide shortage of Krugerrands, for example.
I wonder who will get the soybeans? Will there be any left for the US, for example? Appearently there is not soybeans for everyone that wants to buy.
Gold? Nobody can eat gold.
It's not just soybeans going up.
Somewhat relevant article...Bayer Admits GMO Contamination is Out of Control
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