Taking a closer look at two big Texas disaster declarations

April 30^th disaster declaration

The USDA reports that Agriculture Secretary Vilsack Designates 70 Counties in Texas as Primary Natural Disaster Areas.

Farm Service Agency
Public Affairs Staff
1400 Independence Ave SW
Stop 0506, Room 3624-South
Washington, D.C. 20250-0506

Release No. 1440.09

Agriculture Secretary Vilsack Designates 70 Counties in Texas as Primary Natural Disaster Areas
Decision Allows Farmers and Ranchers to Apply for USDA Assistance

WASHINGTON, April 30, 2009 - The U.S. Department of Agriculture designated 70 counties in Texas as primary natural disaster areas due to drought, above-normal temperatures, and associated wildfires that occurred during the period of Jan. 1, 2009, and continuing.

"President Obama and I want to ensure that farmers and ranchers affected by the drought, wildfire and above-normal temperatures have ample opportunity to apply for loans that will help them restore their operations and continue providing quality agricultural products to the world, " said Secretary Tom Vilsack. This action will provide help to hundreds of farmers and ranchers in Texas who have suffered significant production losses to pasture, forage, winter wheat and oats.

Below is a graphic showing 70 counties designated as primary natural disaster areas. Notice anything odd?

That is one hell of a weird drought!

Explaining strange pattern of primary natural disaster areas.

The Cameron Herald reports that Milam County in Texas is eligible for emergency loans.

COUNTY ELIGIBLE FOR EMERGENCY LOANS
STAFF REPORT
5/21/2009

Milam County [in Texas] has been designated as eligible for low-interest loans due to a recent disaster declaration. That news was delivered to County Judge Frank Summers in a letter from the Division of Emergency Management late last week.

According to the letter, the Secretary of Agriculture notified the Administration of the Farm Service Agency to make the loans available here. The original declaration, made April 27, affected 70 counties based on “damages and losses caused by drought, above normal temperatures, and associated wildfires on Jan. 1, 2009 and continuing.”

Milam County was not one of the 70 primary counties, but was included on a list of 100 contiguous disaster counties.

“This designation makes farm operators in both primary and contiguous counties eligible to be considered for low-interest emergency loans from the Farm Service Agency,” the letter said.

Below is a graphic showing 70 counties designated as primary natural disaster areas in red and the 100 contiguous disaster counties in yellow. Farmers in both the yellow and the red counties are eligible for the same low-interest emergency loans.

November 4^th disaster declaration for Texas

The USDA reports that Agriculture Secretary Vilsack Designates 70 Counties in Texas as Primary Natural Disaster Areas.

Farm Service Agency
Public Affairs Staff
1400 Independence Ave SW
Stop 0506, Room 3624-South
Washington, D.C. 20250-0506

Release No. 1503.09

USDA Designates 69 Additional Counties in Texas as Primary Natural Disaster Areas

WASHINGTON, Nov. 4, 2009 - The U.S. Department of Agriculture has designated 69 counties in Texas as primary natural disaster areas because of losses caused by drought, above-normal temperatures and associated wildfires that that occurred during 2009. These 69 counties are in addition to 70 counties previously designated as primary natural disaster areas earlier this year for the same reason. [I missed this the first time I read this. The “in addition” means that NONE of the counties in this declaration are the same as 70 counties already declared disaster areas on April 30]

Below is a graphic showing 69 counties designated as primary natural disaster areas. Again notice the strange distribution of primary disaster areas.


Now this is fun. The counties designated as disaster areas in these two big declarations fit together like a jigsaw puzzle!


Not a SINGLE county declared as a primary disaster is the same! Instead of declaring most of Texas a disaster in one go, the USDA broke up its disaster declarations to make them seem less bad.

96% of Texas is a USDA disaster area

If you add all of 2009’s declarations together, 96% of Texas has been declared a primary/contiguous disaster area eligible for low-interest emergency loans.


The reality: Texas hit by worst drought in 50 years

The Wall Street Journal reports that Texas Scorched by Worst Drought in 50 Years.

JULY 28, 2009
Texas Scorched by Worst Drought in 50 Years
Crop and Livestock Losses Reach $3.6 Billion, and Tourism Industry Takes a Hit; Meteorologists Predict Relief in the Fall
By TOM BENNING

A combination of record-high heat and record-low rainfall has pushed south and central Texas into the region's deepest drought in a half century, with $3.6 billion of crop and livestock losses piling up during the past nine months.

The heat wave has drastically reduced reservoirs and forced about 230 public water systems to declare mandatory water restrictions. Lower levels in lakes and rivers have been a blow to tourism, too, making summer boating, swimming and fishing activities impossible in some places.

"Summed up in one word: devastating," Texas Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples said.

Nearly 80 of Texas' 254 counties are in "extreme" or "exceptional" drought, the worst possible levels on the U.S. Department of Agriculture's index. Though other states are experiencing drought, no counties in the continental U.S. outside Texas currently register worse than "severe." In late April, the USDA designated 70 Texas counties as primary natural-disaster areas because of drought, above-normal temperatures and associated wildfires.

Texas is the nation's top producer of cattle and cotton and a leading provider of other crops. But many other areas of the U.S. have received normal or above-average rainfall this year, mitigating the potential for more widespread economic fallout as abundant crops elsewhere make up for losses in Texas.

...
The state's worst drought made the record books for its longevity, spanning a seven-year period during the 1950s. This drought, state weather officials say, is more notable for its intensity.

Meteorologists predict relief will come after September, when an El Niño weather pattern of warming currents in the eastern Pacific Ocean is expected to bring up to six months of above-average rainfall.

But by then, farmers and ranchers will have suffered serious economic losses as the drought scorches crops and cattle pastures. Researchers at the AgriLife Extension Service at Texas A&M University say damages are expected to exceed the $4.1 billion in crop and livestock losses the state experienced during a 2006 drought.

Dry pastures won't sustain the usual number of livestock, forcing some ranchers to sell cattle at reduced prices. Jim McAdams, a rancher outside of College Station, said his family's ranch typically runs about 1,200 cows, but is now down to about 800.

"If we don't get rain by early September, it could be trouble," [They didn’t get rain until the middle of September] said Mr. McAdams, a past president of the National Cattleman's Beef Association.

Assistance from the federal government should start later this fall, when $3 billion of aid starts flowing from a $290 billion farm bill passed by Congress in 2008. Another federal program that provides money to ranchers who lost calves due to the drought began earlier this month. But Texas leaders have complained the aid isn't coming soon enough, given the severity of the losses.


'It's just burnt,' he says. Michael Schaefer points out how drought has shrunk ears of yellow field corn at his farm in St. Hedwig.

2000 drought VS 2009 drought

In 2000, when Texas was suffering from a less severe drought, the entire State of Texas was declared a primary agriculture disaster area.

USDA declares Texas disaster area
Jan 11, 2001 12:00 PM, SOUTHWEST FARM PRESS STAFF

Late 2000 declaration makes producers eligible for loans AGRICULTURE SECRETARY Dan Glickman last month declared the entire State of Texas as an agriculture disaster area, making producers eligible for USDA emergency farm loans because of losses caused by drought, excessive heat, and other disasters that occurred during 2000.

"The excessive heat and drought have made a devastating year for farmers in Texas and all over the south," said Glickman. "USDA is working to help farmers in Texas and other states during these difficult times."

Strategically Placed USDA Disaster Declarations across US

United States for Mississippi, Thad Cochran, reports on his website about Counties Declared Disaster areas by the Secretary of Agriculture (presidential disaster declarations not included). The chart speaks for itself.

Counties Declared Disaster by the Secretary of Agriculture
As of November 17 [there have been a LOT of disaster declarations since November 17 (the entire state of Louisiana and Rhode Island for example)]



Only primary counties (yellow), which have proven losses equal to or exceeding 30 percent qualify for assistance.

Updated chart showing ALL USDA Ag disaster areas

The chart below includes presidential disaster declarations as well as disaster declarations issued since November 17.




Conclusion: The USDA is not basing its disaster declaration on the real disasters areas, but on its desire to manipulate public perception. As such, individual USDA releases are nearly useless. The way to figure out how bad problems are is to look at the total number of counties which are considered disaster areas and eligible for low-interest emergency loans.