Links For Keeping Track Of 2010 Food Crisis

Soybean prices in the US

Here is the link for commodity Futures Price Quotes For CBOT Soybeans. US soybean futures are reported in cents per bushel.

Soybean prices in the US on January 8: $10.13 per bushel

Soybean prices in China

The price of soybeans in China can be found by going to the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE). Chinese soybean futures are reported in yuan per Metric Ton (MT), so they need to be converted to dollars/bushel for comparison with CBOT Soybeans. Below is an example of how to do such a conversion.

4,107

yuan/MT

0.146469

dollars/yuan

601.55

dollars/MT

0.027216

bushel/MT

16.37

dollars/bushel


Soybean prices in China on January 8: $16.37 per bushel

Why price of soybeans in China is important

As long as price of soybeans in China is $5 above the price in the US, China will continue to buy and import massive quantities of US soybeans.


US Soybean Export Sales

Here is the USDA link for U.S. Export Sales Reports.


US crush statistics

Here is the USDA link for National Soybean Processors Association


USDA Reports

Here is the link for USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) reports for soybeans.

Here is the link for USDA Crop Production Reports (acreage, area harvested, yield, etc...)


Disaster Declarations

For list of Secretarial disaster declarations, see here.

For list of Presidential disaster declarations, see here.


Other Interesting Links

Center for Agricultural and Rural Development gives us Daily Corn and Soybean Basis Maps for Iowa and the Midwest.
On a pilot basis CARD is posting daily basis maps for corn and soybeans. The purpose of this pilot project is to determine if farmer decisions about where to deliver corn and soybeans can be enhanced. We present maps showing both old crop basis and new crop basis. Old crop basis equals the current local cash price minus the nearby futures price on the Chicago Board of Trade. New crop basis equals the local forward price for future delivery less the new crop futures price on the Chicago Board of Trade. Local price data are obtained from DTN. We then employ a spatial smoothing algorithm to develop the maps.

Maps for different days can be obtained using the "Change Date" link below. Also, historical county-average basis patterns for corn and soybeans throughout the year are available. Click on your county in the map below or choose your county from the menu below the map. The basis is computed as the difference between the local cash price for the crop and the nearby futures price on the Chicago Board of Trade. Historical local cash price data was obtained from CashGrainBids.com.

The National Weather Service provides a nice interactive graphic of observed precipitation levels in the US.

Crop Comments on AgWeb.

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7 Responses to Links For Keeping Track Of 2010 Food Crisis

  1. canucklehead says:

    Happy New Year folks!

    Congrats to Eric on the mention in Jim Willie's latest. Keep up good work!

    http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2010/0106.html

    Enjoy your blog and most comments. Long-time lurker here. Just signed up for an acct!! Haha watch-out ..

    Interesting year ahead eh? I tell you this-the world is knocking here...

    Greetz (as Yann would say) from Canada.
    Dr.J

  2. Jimmy says:

    Hello Eric,

    This is also a good site to follow:

    commodityonline

    Thank you for the links! It will be useful for us all.

    Hey canucklehead,

    Do I know you? You called my name...

    Greetz :o)

    Yann

  3. Numonic says:

    You can also make the argument that as long as China continues to expand credit while US continues to contract credit, soybean prices in China will be more than soybean prices in the US. But here's the thing, it is possible that China can discontinue it's credit expansion and the US can resume it's credit expansion. Or China can just contract credit when it's credit expansion reaches too high a level. There are two ways for China's currency to increase. It can increase with the US currency or it can increase without it. The way it can increase with the US currency is if it maintains the peg and chooses to discontinue the expansion of credit/decrease credit. The way it can increase without the US currency is if it chooses to depeg from the US dollar which would allow it to continue it's credit expansion without causing their currency to devalue too much. But the question is why would China care so much to expand credit? From what I understand, the only reason they are expanding credit right now is to make up for the lost consumption from the rest of the world which has caused an increase in unemployment in their export sector and expanding credit is creating consumption to fill jobs in their service sector. The domestic consumption making up for the lost consumption from the rest of the world. I see no reason for China to create more consumption than was lost. It may and probably currently is doing so but it's by error as you can't be perfectly accurate when trying to fill the void. I will admit though that we should see more volatility when the shift is done. As consumption is resumed in the US, China may be late in decreasing it's consumption and this may cause prices to rise high but it will only be for a short time. Just like we had that massive drop in commodity prices in late 2008 because the world was making the shift, we should see a massive rise or maybe a massive drop in commodity prices as the shift is made. Then US consumption will resume and bring commodity prices back up but I don't see prices shooting to the stars hyperinflation style. Prices may rise high or have a massive fall for a short time during the shift but they will stabilize to reasonable levels.

    So basically I'm saying Chinese stocks will fall and US stocks will rise. While this move is happening it's up in the air where commodity prices will go. Commodity prices could crash for a short time like late 2008 or they could rise high for a short time. The consumption shift will be the cause. I'm going for the ride. If prices drop low, I'm buying more because I know that the drop is temporary. This is unlike nation assets. Commodities are like universal/neutral. So I would suggest buying commodities if/when they dip but if they rise high I might think of selling because that might be the volatility top. Unless you are expecting hyperinflation which I am not.

  4. Jimmy says:

    Jim Chanos, one of the best shorters, predict a - 1000 times bigger than Dubai - bubble in China...

  5. Numonic says:

    I called it and what do you know, China is cooling it's credit expansion, it's not dropping the dollar peg to appreciate their currency, it is decreasing it's credit expansion. But I don't know if this is temporary or long term. All I know is prices were getting too high and when prices get too high it can spark riots and civil unrest just as bad as rising unemployment can. So there is a middle ground that must be kept, that's why I think any major dips in commodities is a great opportunity to buy. I can't say the same for specific stocks because at one point in time China's stock market may be crashing while the US' is increasing and at another point in time China's stock market may be rallying while US' stock market is crashing. But commodities are neutral and go up as long as one of the sides(US or China stock market) are increasing. Although, i don't expect US credit expansion to increase anytime soon, at least not before the Fed starts selling the assets on it's balance sheet, FDIC funds increase, bank failures stop, the effective funds rate rises and the monetary base starts decreasing.

  6. canucklehead says:

    Jimmy - I think we would know before now if we had met. Just figured I'd say hi or "Greetz". :)

    In the near-term I too like commodities despite current hiccups in demand / consumption across the globe; in my view, supply of many - or all is in jeopardy.

  7. Numonic says:

    Although there is some conflict in the China issue because at the same time they are introducing new policies that would make investing more easier. But right now the effects we see are credit decreasing.

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