Below are the numbers for soybean consumption in first four months of crop year for 2008/09 and 2009/10.
Soybean Consumption in first four months of 2008/09 | |||
(Metric Tons) | |||
Crush | Exports | Combined | |
September | 3,276,153 | 481,268 | 3,757,421 |
October | 3,902,693 | 4,658,425 | 8,561,118 |
November | 3,794,428 | 4,387,222 | 8,181,650 |
December | 3,668,363 | 3,974,350 | 7,642,713 |
Total | 14,641,637 | 13,501,265 | 28,142,902 |
Soybean Consumption in first four months of 2009/10 | |||
(Metric Tons) | |||
Crush | Exports | Combined | |
September | 2,922,427 | 749,922 | 3,672,349 |
October | 4,225,611 | 4,928,534 | 9,154,145 |
November | 4,588,890 | 7,158,597 | 11,747,487 |
December | 4,300,000 | 7,182,776 | 11,482,776 |
Total | 16,036,928 | 20,019,829 | 36,056,757 |
| = Guesstimate | ||
Graphic o
f Soybean Overconsumption
Over half of the US soybean crop has been consumed in first four months of the 2009/10 crop year.
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(Note that even if the USDA's bogus estimates were true, soybeans are still being overconsumed)
What this means
The soybean prices are going way up. How high they go depends on how long the current overconsumption lasts. In other words, right now it would take a 50 to 80 percent rise in prices to ration demand until next harvest. However, with two or three months more of the current overconsumption, soybeans prices will have to double or triple to ration demand.
Watch for the USDA's Madoff Moment
As his ponzi scheme collapsed due to withdrawal requests, Madoff had to face reality and shocked the world by admitting the truth. Investors who believed they owned billions found they had a little over 100 million to divide among themselves. The USDA, in the next three to four months, will also have to face the reality and admit to the world that the US is missing a ten to twenty million metric tons of soybeans. The news should be as well received as Madoff's announcement.
Today, I finally took the doomer step and ordered a substantial supply of freeze-dried food. Of course it's not enough, but it's all I can afford, having been saving up for a while. And I will try to order more, because I expect the quality of crops to decline drastically, in terms of nutritional value.
Shares in Black Earth Farming, a company that invests in Russian farmland and that has been mentioned here on Market Skeptics, are up a lot in the last few days. It may well be one of the best performing stocks so far this year with a gain of around 12 percent. It looks like Eric "Mr. Soybean" deCarbonnel knows what he is talking about.
Eric,
Can you tell us where the soybean consumption statistics come from? Those are very interesting numbers.
Steve
Eric,
Can you tell us where the soybean consumption statistics come from? Those are very interesting numbers.
Steve
Eric,
Can you tell us where the soybean consumption statistics come from? Those are very interesting numbers.
Steve
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