(emphasis mine) [my comment]

Tuesday, 12 January 2010
USDA Report - Soybeans

The USDA raised 2009 US production by 42 million bushels to 3.361 million, a tad higher than the average trade guess of 3.337 million, but fairly central within the range of trade estimates so there was no great shock there.

Yields were upped from 43.3 bu/acre last month to 44 bu/acre, a little higher than guesstimates of 43.4 bu/acre.

Ending stocks were dropped 10 million to 245 million bushels, but that was less than the 18 million bushels that the trade had been expecting.

World carryover was raised from 57.09 MMT to 59.8 MMT and Brazilian production increased by 2 MMT to 65 MMT.

Tuesday, 12 January 2010
USDA Report - Corn

This is where the biggest shock came from, the USDA increasing US production to 13.151 billion bushels, above even the highest trade estimate and 230 million up on last month, when almost everyone had been anticipating a reduction.

Yields were the culprit, coming in at 165.2 bu/acre, from 162.9 bu/acre last month and 0.7 bu/acre above the highest trade estimate.

US carryover was raised to 1.764 billion bushels, well above estimates for 1.613 billion.

The increased US production and an extra 1 MMT of output from Argentina will help push global carryover up from 132.3 MMT estimated last month to 136.2 MMT now, the USDA said. [pure BS]

More Articles Contradicting USDA

The Commercial Appeal reports that promise of lush Mid-South harvest drowns in record autumn rain.

Promise of lush Mid-South harvest drowns in record autumn rain
By Tom Charlier
Posted December 29, 2009 at 10:33 p.m.


Photo by Alan Spearman
This wet soybean field in Covington, Tenn., typifies the conditions that David Templeton II fought to harvest this fall among his family's 4,400 acres in Tipton, Fayette and Haywood counties. Record rainfall in October cut the value of their soybean crop by about 15 percent.

In fields that had long since turned to quagmires, soybeans rotted in their pods and cotton bolls, discolored and ruined, began falling to the ground.

Through it all, David Templeton II could only wait and watch. As the traditional October harvest period passed and November gave way to December, he waited for the rains to end and watched as a crop that once had shown so much promise slowly began to drown.

"It was probably the most challenging crop to get out that I've ever seen," said Templeton, whose family farms 4,400 acres in Tipton, Fayette and Haywood counties.

Across Tennessee, Arkansas and Mississippi, late-season rains this year caused well over $750 million in damage to corn, cotton, soybean and other crops so vital to the Mid-South's agricultural economy.

The record-setting precipitation levels that delayed harvests by a month or more diminished both the yield and the quality -- hence value -- of crops. In fact, the rains rendered thousands of acres of plants in such poor shape that growers simply left them in the fields to rot.

Governors and congressional representatives already have begun securing disaster assistance for farmers. But the effects of the damage will seep through farm-related businesses and entire communities for months to come, officials say.

And saddled with this year's losses, many growers are likely to have so much trouble getting loans next year that they might have to give up farming, agriculture officials say.

"We've got a number of growers ... that we know are not going to be farming," said Trey Koger, extension soybean specialist with the Mississippi State University extension service.

It was in Mississippi -- especially in parts of the Delta -- where the most severe damage occurred. Statewide, the value of crops fell about $444 million -- or 27.7 percent -- after Sept. 20, according to the MSU Department of Agricultural Economics.

Arkansas suffered a statewide loss of nearly 10 percent, representing about $309million washed away, according to the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture.

There was no statewide dollar figure available this week for Tennessee, although the damage probably was less than that of the other two states because East Tennessee was spared much of the rainy weather. In the 16 counties -- mostly in Middle and West Tennessee -- that were approved for disaster assistance, crop losses ranged from 20 to 50 percent, state officials said.

The damage is attributable to an October in which up to six times the normal amount of rain fell on the region. The 10.5-plus inches that fell in the Memphis area set a record for the month.

To area farmers, the late rains seemed especially cruel because, after prolonged drought conditions in previous years, the 2009 crops had shown signs of unusual bounty.

"The rain couldn't have come at a worse time," Koger said. "We had soybeans sit in the field four to six weeks that were ready to harvest but couldn't be harvested because of the rain."

Soybeans, which covered nearly 10 times more acreage in Mississippi than cotton this year, are highly vulnerable to late-season moisture, Koger said. The beans can mold in the pods and their oil content and nutritional value often become diminished.

But cotton is no less susceptible. The wet weather created prime conditions for diseases that cause boll rot, which deteriorates and discolors the lint, and hardlock, which prevents the lint from fluffing out, said Darrin Dodds, cotton specialist with the MSU extension service.

The southern half of the Mississippi Delta sustained the worst of the rain damage, Dodds said.

"The sad thing is, we had a beautiful-looking crop on our hands, and then all that rainfall set in and destroyed all that potential," he said.

In some areas, cotton yields shrank to only 500-600 pounds per acre, less than half the normal 1,200 or so pounds, said Tucker Miller, a pest-management consultant in Mississippi. The low yield, coupled with the high "input" costs of growing cotton, spelled disaster for many growers.

"Just about everybody coming in lost money this year," Tucker said. "It takes a thousand pounds to break even, and these guys didn't get anywhere near that on the south end (of the Delta)."

The effects of the fall rains were compounded because many farmers were late planting as a result of unusually wet weather in May. As a result, many corn-growers weren't able to put fertilizer out.

Coahoma County, Miss., farmer Wayne Dulaney said his corn yield fell below 150 bushels per acre, compared to the usual 200 or so.

This year "was the worst one weather-wise to get a crop in," said Dulaney, who's been farming for 13 years. "Everybody's hoping for a break-even year."

Pine Bluff Commercial reports that farmers are in need of crop damage assistance.

FARMERS IN NEED OF CROP DAMAGE ASSISTANCE
By Wes Clement/OF THE COMMERCIAL STAFF
Wednesday, January 6, 2010 10:52 PM CST

Many local farmers who suffered major crop damage due to record rains in 2009 are speaking up for immediate federal assistance.


Pine Bluff Commercial/Ralph Fitzgerald Rich Hillman, vice president of Arkansas Fram Bureau, was one of several speakers to address a special meeting of the Jefferson County Farm Bureau Board of Directors Wednesday afternoon at the Pine Bluff Farm Bureau.

[Arkansas]

"It has been an economic disaster for many farmers," said Benny Fratesi, Jefferson County Farm Bureau legislative chairman. "From the reports we're getting from bankers, if they don't get help now, a lot of farmers will be out of business."

Fratesi spoke at a special meeting of the Jefferson County Farm Bureau Board of Directors Wednesday. The meeting was attended by farmers, bankers, state Farm Bureau officials and others with strong interests in federal lawmakers finding a quick means of passing legislation underway in the House and Senate that would assist farmers.

Chad Pitillo of Simmons First National Bank traveled to Washington, D.C., last month with others to speak to Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) about farmers' urgent needs.

"The main thing we tried to stress in early December is that we would have farmers sitting in front of us in a few weeks needing crop loans, and right now we need immediate attention," Pitillo said.

Some farmers, he said, would not have enough equity to continue after suffering major crop losses if assistance is not available soon.

The matter is steadily becoming more urgent, he said, since bankers are now making crop loans for next year.

Lincoln, who is chairman of the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry, joined Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) to introduce legislation in mid-November that would provide quick damage assistance, and in early December Rep. Marion Berry (D-Ark.) and Rep. Travis Childers (D-Miss.) introduced a companion bill in the House.

Jeffrey Hall, a Arkansas Farm Bureau legislative affairs representative, said it is important the disaster legislation is added to a bill that is likely to pass soon. He said he maintains steady communication with Lincoln regarding the matter.

The latest amounts released by the University of Arkansas Cooperative Extension Service estimate crop damage statewide to be about $309 million. An average yield of about $43 per acre was lost to the rains for corn, cotton, cottonseed, grass, hay, rice, sorghum and soybeans.

Extension Agent Don Plunkett said county-specific yield estimates and estimates divided by crop are typically not available until around May or later. [These will be VERY interesting to see.]

Suburban Chicago News reports that farmers struggle to harvest crops late after an unusual season.

Under the weather
Local farmers struggle to harvest crops late after an unusual season
December 10, 2009
By CINDY WOJDYLA CAIN

[Illinois]

JOLIET -- Spring was too wet. July was too cool. A frost came early.

And now, just when farmers thought they could finally finish harvesting their crops, they were hit with a blizzard.

"It (the snow) is normal for December -- it's not normal that we're harvesting," said Jim Robbins, a Manhattan-area farmer who is a member and past president of the Illinois Corn Marketing board. "This has definitely been the worst in the last 10 years." [Funny, the USDA thinks it has been the best year ever.]

Some people think farmers complain too much about the weather, but this year, all of the grumbles are warranted, said Robbins, who has been farming for 29 years.

"You wonder why we talk about it all of the time? Everything depends on it."

'A fall like this'

Tasha Bunting, manager of the Grundy County Farm Bureau, said she grew up on a farm and has been around farming her whole life.

"I've never seen a fall like this," Bunting said. "It's been a very challenging year. It will certainly be one for the record books and one they won't soon forget."

Mark Schneidewind, manager of the Will County Farm Bureau, said some growing seasons may have had worse crop yields because some acres were never planted or due to drought, but this year has been one of the coolest on record, he said.

"Mother Nature can be really nice to you and other times she can be relentless," Schneidewind said.

Farmers all over the Midwest are suffering through the late harvest, Bunting said.

"This is not specific to Illinois. This is not something we're facing alone."

Snowy harvest

Robbins was trying to finish harvesting about 10 percent of his corn crop in the Manhattan-Wilton Center area of Will County when Monday's snowstorm hit. You can't harvest when snow clogs the combine sieves, he explained.

"Corn would go out the back end and not into the grain tank," he said.

But this year's troubles date all the way back to spring when rain forced most farmers to plant their crops two to three weeks late. Normally, corn is in by May 1-10. This year, the seeds weren't nestled in the ground until much later in May.

Once the crop was planted late, farmers had to hope the kernels would have enough time to mature before harvest.

"What really set us back is July was so cool," Robbins said.

Some years, a cool fall is fine because it dries the corn. But this year, the corn needed more time to grow, Robbins said.

As a result, most corn couldn't be harvested in October. It wasn't mature and it was too wet, Robbins said. Then a mid-month frost nipped the corn, preventing the maturation process from continuing.

Soybeans also were harvested late this year. Usually, the beans are out of the fields in mid-October, but most farmers weren't done harvesting that crop until a week or so into November, Robbins said.

...

Average yields

Even with all this year's setbacks, crop yields are still pretty good, Robbins said.

"They're not quite as good as last year, but they're good." [The USDA disagrees strongly. It believes yields were much better than last year.]

The only problem Robbins is having with his corn crop is its weight. Typically, a bushel of corn weighs 56 pounds, but Robbins said his is coming in at 48 pounds. The early frost prevented the corn from reaching peak density, he said.

"You get docked on quality 2-3 cents when the test weight is light," he added.

Schneidewind said crop yields are average to slightly above average. Soybeans yields are 45-55 bushels an acre; corn is 175-185 an acre for Will County.

Bunting said both soybean and corn harvests are average, 45-55 bushels per acre and 160-180 bushels per acre, respectively in Grundy County.

Soybean prices also are good at around $9.50-$10.50 per bushel, Schneidewind said. Corn prices, however, are below average at $2.90-$3.25 a bushel. A corn price of $4 per bushel is typically the break-even point for a farmer to cover his costs, Schneidewind explained. If the price is lower, federal subsidies kick in to cover part -- but not all -- of the loss.

But even with the low corn prices and the average yields, Schneidewind said it's amazing that with all the setbacks, this year's corn crop is 90 percent harvested and yields are holding steady. [So amazing, it probably isn't true]

Agfax reports that 2009's persistent rainfall damages crops on a wide basis in Louisiana.

Louisiana: 2009's persistent rainfall damages crops on a wide basis
AgFax.Com - Your Online Ag News Source
By Tobie Blanchard
LSU Ag Center

[Louisiana]

BATON ROUGE, Louisiana (Dec. 18, 2009) - Hurricanes marred agricultural production in 2008. But it was a simple case of never ending rain in 2009, creating hardships for Louisiana farmers.

Persistent rain during fall harvest caused significant damage and brought more financial problems for farmers, according to LSU AgCenter economist Dr. Kurt Guidry.

Fields of sweet potatoes, cotton and soybeans did not get harvested because of poor quality.

"When you're getting rain every other day, it really limits in terms of producers being able to get into the field," Guidry said. "And in certain cases, that rain every other day was significant rain — 2 to 3 inches."

Guidry estimates revenue reductions from crop damage will top $360 million, with cotton losing the most at 63 percent of its expected value. Sweet potatoes lost 50 percent of their value, and soybeans lost 33 percent. Losses to rice and sugarcane are below 10 percent.

This makes for another difficult year for sweet potato and cotton growers who were still struggling to recover from 2008 after Hurricane Gustav severely damaged those crops, Guidry said.

"Those producers are not only going to have one year of carry-over debt, but now two years of carry-over debt as they head into 2010," he said.

WXOW reports that farmers still have unharvested crops.

By Fanna Haile-Selassie
Farmers still have unharvested crops
Posted: Dec 16, 2009 3:27 AM Tuesday, December 15, 2009 7:27 PM EST

Watch video: Some corn left to harvest

[Minnesota]

STEWARTVILLE, MN (KTTC-DT) --This year's crop season has been one of the strangest on record. And now th at snow is on the ground to stay, it's causing a major headache for farmers who haven't yet harvested all their crops.

State-wide, only 91% of the harvest is complete. Around the Stewartville area, the number is more around 96% percent. But for that remaining 4%, all this snow is requiring them to make some gamble-like choices.

Many crop farmers around the southeast part of Minnesota will tell you, this year's weather pattern is unheard of.

"I talked to a lot of my old friends that are in their 80's and 90's and they just don't even remember this kind of typical falls."

July was a pretty cold and rainy month. The heat didn't come until September, and October was completely useless for harvest with all the rain.
...
"In other words, all of October was kind of wasted. So, really we harvested two crops in November, meaning soybeans and corn," explains Steve Sturm, a grain merchandiser with All American Co-op.

Feltis has about 80 acres of unharvested corn left, about one third of his crop. He's made the decision to wait until spring to harvest instead of trying to get a combine through the snow. Mold, is a big concern.
...
Feltis expects to lose about 20% to 25% of his crop this year. Other farmers around him are keeping some stalks up through the winter, which should help minimize the loss to hungry deer.

13wmaz reports that rains drown out some middle Georgia crops.

Rains Drown Out Some Middle Ga. Crops
12/16/2009
Vanessa Ruffes

[Georgia]

Central Georgia is seeing one of its wettest years ever. As it stands, 2009 is the 9th wettest year on record in Macon, and there's a lot more rain expected before the next year rolls around.

Some say the soggy ground and mud are becoming more than annoying and could dampen the chances of healthy crops this year.

Retired farmer Robert Dunbar says sometimes, too much of a good thing can be bad.

A farmer for most of his life, Dunbar says he's had to work around all types of weather, like the recent rains that have drowned out parts of his 450-acres farm in Warner Robins.
...
"Sometimes too much rain can ruin crops," says Dunbar. "And it make things bad--well, what we consider bad."
...
Sor far this year, Central Georgia's gotten more than 57 inches of rain. That's about a foot more rain than normal.

The wettest year on record is in 1929, when it rained nearly 68 inches.

Zwire reports that rain threatened crops in Alabama.

Rains threaten crops
Dec 16 2009 12:00AM By Melissa Braun

[Alabama]

There is such a thing as too much rain and some Coffee County crops offer proof.

"I don't remember in my time a saturation like we have seen this year," said Coffee County Extension Service Director Stan Windham.

The saturation of rainfall that has caused the county to end 2009 with rainfall amounts more than 20 inches above average is ruining numerous crops in the area.

"We are at over 70 inches of rain and farmers can't get out and harvest their crops," Windham explained, adding that the peanut and cotton crop farmers are suffering.
...
Coffee County received an average of six inches of rain over the weekend alone. More than four inches were received Monday and Tuesday.

"It would be a miracle if farmers could get out there and harvest before more than eight days, but I tend to agree with Stokes," Windham said.

An application is under way for a disaster declaration for area crops including peanuts, cotton and soybeans.

Of the crops throughout the county, officials estimate that 30 percent of the peanuts and cotton and 40 percent of the soybean crops are a total loss, according to Justin Senn, Farm Service Agency liaison. ["40 percent of the soybean crops are a total loss"...]

"It could get higher," he said.

It is the second time in only a year the farmers of Coffee County have faced disaster.

At the beginning of the year, federal assistance was received after the county faced severe drought conditions, Senn explained.

Prior to this year, the county last faced farming disaster conditions more than five years ago, he said.
...
There is a chance for rain in the forecast again on Friday.

Agweek reports that North Dakota's top ag stories from 2009.

COVER STORY: The region's top ag stories from 2009
Agweek
Published: 01/11/2010

[North Dakota]

The year 2009 for agriculture in the Northern Plains might be best described as difficult. But other terms come to mind also: tough, demanding, ominous and, at times, encouraging. [The "encouraging" comes from USDA yield and production estimates, which are complete nonsense.]

The year began with widespread rain and flooding, followed by a declaration that the state of North Dakota had become a disaster area. It ended with a blizzard that shut down all but the most determined corn harvesting efforts. In between, the dairy and pork industries struggled, battles raged against new and resurgent diseases and farm rents hit new highs.

Here is a look at the region's top ag stories, as picked by Agweek staff.

Floods and disaster

Agriculture Secretary Ed Schafer issued the year's first disaster declaration in January for all 53 North Dakota counties, aimed at drought and late rains for the 2008 growing year.

The wet fall had left the ground soaked and the heavy winter snows led to an intense snowmelt. When the spring rains came in 2009, flooding became widespread.

On March 24, the state of North Dakota again was declared a disaster area, with 34 of 53 counties designated for aid.
...
On Nov. 27, North Dakota Gov. John Hoeven announced that Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack had approved his request for a disaster declaration covering weather-related crop damages in 24 North Dakota counties. The request was prompted by the severe spring flooding and late season weather.

Hoeven summed things up in a letter to Vilsack, saying that spring flooding, late planting, cool growing conditions and late season moisture had "challenged the harvesting of row crops, including sugar beets, corn and soybeans." [How do reconciled this reality of "challenging" harvesting conditions with the USDA insanily optimistic production estimates?]
...
Mudding in, mudding out

2009 marked the second straight year when farmers up and down the Red River Valley hoped for, but did not get an early warm up and dry out.

The late rains and heavy snows of late 2008 had set up an almost predictable delay in planting work in 2009, since much of the field preparation had yet to be done and a lot of corn had been left standing over winter.

Then a huge storm system came out of the Pacific Northwest in the third week of March, deluging the already saturated ground and causing widespread flooding. Residents in Fargo, N.D., were organizing battalions of sandbaggers to protect their city. Cattle were stranded and drowning and crop fields were under water. By the time farmers were able to get into their fields, they had their hands full.

[See 2 million ND acres went unplanted and 'If nature has anything else to throw at us, it'd have to be a tornado' for more information]

"When we went into it, the ground was extremely wet from last year," Moorhead, Minn., farmer Jimmie Nelson says. "We didn't get it worked up good last fall, and we had to dig it in a bit deeper than we normally do. Usually, we like to work it up, let it dry for a half a day and plant. This year, there was so much residue we had to dry it for one to two days on a lot of ground before we could get in and plant and do anything. And we had to set up the planters a little different than usual."

Nelson completed his planting a month late. Many would not be able to start planting until early June.

Grand Forks rancher and farmer Frank Matejcek said he had to move his cattle off his land next to the Red River to keep them safe until the waters receded.

After a generally cool summer, the rains reappeared, soaking the fields and keeping frustrated combiners on hold. By early December, a dry but cold weather window was allowing producers to catch up. North Dakota's corn growers, the furthest behind of the Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Illinois, still bringing in corn, pulled off 9 percent of its corn in seven days. Those without corn left were getting prep work done for next year.

Then came the Christmas snowstorm, Blizzard Alvin, dumping 1 to 2 feet of snow across the Northern Plains. The 2009 corn harvest came to a halt, and farmers at the coffee shops again began to talk about when they might be able to get in their fields in 2010.

My reaction: USDA production estimates are fraudulent. They contradict reality.

At this point, I doubt the USDA is even collecting data. Their production estimates are "fill in the blank", as in demand is X so production is also X. It is criminal.