Soybean Overconsumption (first six months of 2009/10)

Below are the numbers for soybean consumption in first six months of crop year for 2008/09 and 2009/10.

Soybean Consumption in first six months of 2008/09

(Metric Tons)

Crush

Exports

Combined

September

3,276,153

481,268

3,757,421

October

3,902,693

4,658,425

8,561,118

November

3,794,428

4,387,222

8,181,650

December

3,668,363

3,974,350

7,642,713

January

3,785,746

4,570,448

8,356,194

February

3,501,828

4,311,998

7,813,826

Total

21,929,211

22,383,711

44,312,922

Soybean Consumption in first six months of 2009/10

(Metric Tons)

Crush

Exports

Combined

September

2,922,427

749,922

3,672,349

October

4,225,611

4,928,534

9,154,145

November

4,361,609

7,158,597

11,520,206

December

4,473,684

7,182,776

11,656,460

January

4,419,797

5,838,697

10,258,494

February

4,300,000

4,537,477

8,837,477

Total

24,703,128

30,396,003

55,099,131

= Guesstimate



Graphic of Soybean Overconsumption

Over two thirds of the US soybean crop has been consumed in first six months of the 2009/10 crop year.



(Note that even if the USDA's insane estimates were true, the numbers still don't add up.)


Accumulated Exports Show Surging Demand



My reaction: Things are going to get really interesting in the next two months. As I wrote in my first entry on Soybean Overconsumption:

What this means

The soybean prices are going way up. How high they go depends on how long the current overconsumption lasts. In other words, right now it would take a 50 to 80 percent rise in prices to ration demand until next harvest. However, with two or three months more of the current overconsumption, soybeans prices will have to double or triple to ration demand.

Watch for the USDA's Madoff Moment

As his ponzi scheme collapsed due to withdrawal requests, Madoff had to face reality and shocked the world by admitting the truth. Investors who believed they owned billions found they had a little over 100 million to divide among themselves. The USDA, in the next three to four months, will also have to face the reality and admit to the world that the US is missing a ten to twenty million metric tons of soybeans. The news should be as well received as Madoff's announcement.

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