Soybean Overconsumption (first seven months of 2009/10)

Below are the numbers for soybean consumption in first seven months of crop year for 2008/09 and 2009/10.

Soybean Consumption in first seven months of 2008/09

(Metric Tons)

Crush

Exports

Combined

September

3,276,153

481,268

3,757,421

October

3,902,693

4,658,425

8,561,118

November

3,794,428

4,387,222

8,181,650

December

3,668,363

3,974,350

7,642,713

January

3,785,746

4,570,448

8,356,194

February

3,501,828

4,311,998

7,813,826

March

3,735,587

2,759,809

6,495,396

Total

25,664,798

25,143,520

50,808,318

Soybean Consumption in first seven months of 2009/10

(Metric Tons)

Crush

Exports

Combined

September

2,922,427

749,922

3,672,349

October

4,225,611

4,928,534

9,154,145

November

4,361,609

7,158,597

11,520,206

December

4,473,684

7,182,776

11,656,460

January

4,419,797

5,838,697

10,258,494

February

4,037,521

4,537,477

8,574,998

March

4,000,000

3,676,375

7,676,375

Total

28,440,649

34,072,378

62,513,027

= Guesstimate



Graphic of Soybean Overconsumption

Over two thirds of the US soybean crop has been consumed in first six months of the 2009/10 crop year.



(Note that even if the USDA's insane estimates were true, the numbers still don't add up.)


Accumulated Exports Show Surging Demand



My reaction: Things are going to get really interesting in the next two months. As I wrote in my first entry on Soybean Overconsumption:

What this means

The soybean prices are going way up. How high they go depends on how long the current overconsumption lasts. In other words, right now it would take a 50 to 80 percent rise in prices to ration demand until next harvest. However, with [one month] two or three months more of the current overconsumption, soybeans prices will have to double or triple to ration demand.

Watch for the USDA's Madoff Moment

As his ponzi scheme collapsed due to withdrawal requests, Madoff had to face reality and shocked the world by admitting the truth. Investors who believed they owned billions found they had a little over 100 million to divide among themselves. The USDA, in the next [two] three to four months, will also have to face the reality and admit to the world that the US is missing a ten to twenty million metric tons of soybeans. The news should be as well received as Madoff's announcement.

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5 Responses to Soybean Overconsumption (first seven months of 2009/10)

  1. Mark says:

    Do you have any monthly numbers for Brazil and/or Argentina?

  2. Mark says:

    China has just removed 5 grain storage licenses. Have no details because I have no full access to the report.

  3. Jimmy says:

    Yo Eric,

    Did some research about soybeans, hopefully you would like it:

    For example, last Friday the volume in CBOT Soybeans was 196,650 standard contracts.

    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/commodities/grain-and-oilseed/soybean_quotes_settlements_futures.html
    (see total below)

    A contract is for 5,000 Bushels.

    http://www.wikinvest.com/futures/Mini-Sized_Soybean_Futures

    Mini-Sized vs. Regular Soybean Futures

    Mini-Sized Soybean Futures are identical in every way to the standard Soybean Futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) except that the contract size is significantly smaller (1000 bushels vs. 5000 bushels) compared to standard Soybean Futures.

    That's 983,250,000 bushels traded in one day. (=196,650 contracts * 5,000 bushels per contract)

    The physical Soy crop is 8 Billion bushels- A YEAR!

    http://www.soystats.com/2009/page_30.htm

    252 tradingdays in a year = trading of average 250 billion bushels a year. (physical year production = 8 billion bushels)

    That's much, much more fictive/paper bushels traded than physical available!

    And don't forget, it's one example of several sorts futures whose are daily traded. You have also other soybean futures with other sizes/contract specifications:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soybean
    Soybean futures
    Soybean futures are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade and have delivery dates in January (F), March (H), May (K), July (N), August (Q), September (U), November (X).[98]
    It is also traded on other commodity futures exchanges under different contract specifications:

    * SAFEX: The South African Futures Exchange[99]
    * DC: Dalian Commodity Exchange[100]
    * KEX: Kansai Commodities Exchange in Japan[101]
    * TGE: Tokyo Grain Exchange in Japan[102]
    * KCX: Fukuoka Commodity Exchange in Japan that was absorbed by the KEX

    So does soybeans maybe also trade against 100:1 (or more) in total (I don't know), like paper gold?

    http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/03/1001.html

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jeffrey-christian-and-nick-barisheff-bullion-management-group-seek-disprove-gold-ponzi-schem

  4. stibot says:

    "252 tradingdays in a year = trading of average 250 billion bushels a year. (physical year production = 8 billion bushels)

    That's much, much more fictive/paper bushels traded than physical available!"

    This is called liquidity. It doesn't prove neither fraud nor fractional reserve system.

    What you are looking for is how many contracts have been issued and how much of the stuff is available (for delivery). I can recall Eric posted such information within charts months ago or you can search Internet.

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