Been busy working on none blog stuff, so here is a quick expansion on what I wrote yesterday about India's Bleak Future.
The slide below is from The Mosaic Company' s 2007 “Analyst Day”
Here is what The Mosaic Company had to say about the slide:
India is a great case study. I will not go into all the details, but Indian nutrient use increased about 40% or six million tonnes during the last four years. There is an exciting food game going on right now in India.
India' s Fertilizer Use VS Crop Production
Below is chart of Indian Rice, Wheat, and Corn Production (the three biggest crops) for the same time period as the fertilizer chart above. Notice that crop production is up only 15% during the last four years. In fact, from 1980 to 2006, Fertilizer use increased four folds, but crop production didn' t even double.
Dieoff.org explains what is happening here.
The estimated rate of world soil erosion in excess of new soil production is 23 billion t yr, or about 0.7% loss of the world's soil inventory each year. The continuing application of fertilizers has so far masked much of the deterioration and loss of productivity from this process, so that world cropland yield is remaining roughly constant.
Conclusion: Because of soil Deterioration caused by intensive farming techniques of the “green revolution”, India needs more and more fertilizer simply to keep yields constant. This will not end well.