*****China’s increasing meat demand*****

Permaculture reports about the Growing Demand for Soybeans.

(emphasis mine) [my comment]


During the closing decades of the last century, Japan was the leading soybean importer, at nearly 5 million tons per year.
As recently as 1995, China was essentially self-sufficient in soybeans, producing and consuming roughly 13 million tons of soybeans a year. Then the dam broke as rising incomes enabled many of China's 1.3 billion people to move up the food chain, consuming more meat, milk, eggs, and farmed fish. By 2009 China was consuming 55 million tons of soybeans, of which 41 million tons were imported, accounting for 75 percent of its soaring consumption.



Today half of all soybean exports go to China, the country that gave the world the soybean. Soybean meal mixed with grain for animal feed made it possible for Chinese meat consumption to grow to double that in the United States.

Where does the 250-million-ton world soybean crop go?
One tenth or so is consumed directly as food—tofu, meat substitutes, soy sauce, and other products. Nearly one fifth is extracted as oil, making it a leading table oil. The remainder, roughly 70 percent of the harvest, ends up as soybean meal to be consumed by livestock and poultry.

So although the soybean is everywhere, it is virtually invisible, embedded in livestock and poultry products. Most of the world harvest ends up in refrigerators in such products as milk, eggs, cheese, chicken, ham, beef, and ice cream.

Satisfying the global demand for soybeans, growing at nearly 6 million tons per year, poses a challenge.


China Post reports that Taiwan eats the most meat in East Asia.

Updated Monday, March 29, 2010 9:46 am TWN, The China Post news staff
Taiwan eats the most meat in East Asia: group

TAIPEI,T aiwan -- Every Taiwanese consumes an average of 77.1 kilos meat per year, putting it ahead of nations like China, Japan and South Korea in Asia, according to a foundation for sustainable energy.

Taiwan is a country that consumes much meat, compared to China that has an annual consumption of 60.8 kilograms per person
and both Japan and South Korea that both see less than 40 per person,
Eugene Chien (簡又—), Chairman of Taiwan Institute for Sustainable Energy (台灣永續能源基'會), said in a presentation to the Council for Economic Planning and Development, citing statistics of the Council of Agriculture.

Taiwan's yearly meat consumption is quite close to that of Germany and the U.S. — 79.1 and 77.3 kilograms respectively.

Due to environmental concerns, Chien encouraged the public to eat less meat, since
producing one kilogram of beef, which equals consuming 10 kilograms grains, causes 36 kilograms of carbon dioxide emission. Furthermore, cow flatulence generates more than 100 kinds of air pollutants.

Chien also suggested farmers adopt eco-friendly methods in regards to animal raising, burial of dead animals and handling of waste water in order to cut down on the emission of carbon dioxide.

Nextgenerationfood reports that China's increased meat demand.

China's increased meat demand
By Jodie Humphries 03/30/10 - 15:42


Rising demand in China

It was reported last June that China's rapid industrialisation and increasing population were having an affect on the country. But what could be classed as more of a surprise is the fact it's the countries growing love of meat which is having the affect.

30 years ago, meat was a luxury, only brought for special occasions, now sales of meat are rising 10 percent each year, making for a booming meat market.

According to Green Living Community,
if China's love of meat continues to grow, it's going to create water shortages which could have world wide repercussions in coming decades as China will have to rely on food imports to meet demands.

China is home to 21 percent of the world's population. Its economy has grown at the fastest rate in recent world history, at about eight percent per year over the last two decades, says Junguo Liu, an environmental scientist in Switzerland.

During this period of unprecedented growth, the consumption of grains in China has remained steady, even dropping a little. But
the consumption of meat in China has more than quadrupled since 1980. The production of meat requires much more water per serving than any other kind of food. Even though meat and other animal products made up only 16 percent of the typical Chinese diet in 2003, those foods accounted for more than one-half of the country's food-related water consumption, reportLiu and colleague Hubert Savenije of Delft University in an upcoming Hydrology and Earth System Sciences.

Despite the fact that the
Chinese now eat on average, 53kg of meat per year, this is still half the amount of America. And the affect on water cannot be underestimated with regard to meat; National Geographic explains that it takes 1857 gallons of water to produce one pound of beef.

McDonald's in China

One of the biggest growing companies in China, is McDonalds.
The firm expects to have more than 2000 stores in mainland China by the end of 2013 and 1300 at the end of 2010, Tim Fenton, McDonald's president for Asia, Pacific, Middle East and Africa told Reuters.

"It took us 19 years to get to 1000 and it'll take us six more years to get to 2000,"
Fenton said to BusinessWeek.

"Asia, Middle East and Africa is the fastest growing area in the world and of that, China is the fastest growing country," Fenton said, adding that he plans to open a total 520 new stores in the region this year.

McDonald's said in January it expects to boost its capital investment in China by about a quarter this year and open 150 to 175 restaurants in the mainland to tap the growth of the world's third-largest economy.

McDonald's will roll out between 40-50 McCafes in China this year, up from the three it currently has to capitalise on the country's increasing taste for coffee.

Quoting third party data, he added that China's fast food and casual dining industry, growing at 10 percent, could reach US$310 billion this year. That compared with US$460 billion in the US expanding at two percent, and US$470 billion in Europe, with flat growth.

"Just China alone, if you do the math, in 5-10 years, they could surpass the U.S. and or both Europe," Fenton said.

McDonald's, which has been in China for 20 years, is one of the most successful foreign businesses in China.

As more fast-food chains selling meat start to open, the sector is set to continue to boom as China discovers its hidden love for meat - and we don't mean cat and dog. On 26 January 2010 China launched its first draft proposal to protect the country's animals from maltreatment including a measure to jail people who eat dog for up to 15 days - it looks like the meat market will continue to grow.

My reaction:

1) China's meat consumption since 1995 has increased by 112 percent to 53 kilograms per person per year.

2) Livestock grain demand to supply Chinese meat consumption increased by 199 million tonnes between 1995 and 2007.

3) Producing one kilogram of beef consumes 10 kilograms grains,

4) In Taiwan (the best indicator for China), meat consumption has already reached parity with that of Germany and the US:


Per Capita Meat

Consumption

GNP per capita

(kilograms)

(dollars)

The US:

77.3

34,743

Taiwan:

77.1

16,764

China:

53.0

6,010



5) An additional 277 million tons of grain would be needed to support China at parity with the US or Taiwan.

6) Given China's economic growth and the severely undervalued yuan, China will probably reach Taiwan level GNP per capita in the next 5 years.


Conclusion: China's increasing meat demand will drive food prices up, permanently, VS everything else over the next few years.

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2 Responses to *****China’s increasing meat demand*****

  1. dashxdr says:

    What of soybeans, Eric?

    My family went on vacation, we drove around Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Vast areas planted with corn.

    In almost every planted area there are low lying regions with yellow, dying crops and pools of water. Yet right next to them are higher regions where the plants are thriving.

    You use selective reporting. You show pictures of the bad areas, implying that the entire world is flooded and all crops everywhere are in awful shape. This is a lie.

    If you see a few pictures of withered crops, do you assume there is a conspiracy and all reports of bumper harvests are bogus?

    Are you trying to get at the truth of the matter? Or are you trying to promote your black earth russian farmland investment?

    My take is you believe your hocum, but you're just mistaken. YOU can't gather enough information on the complete state of crop production. So you rely on anecdotes and images found on the internet. Your research is flawed.

    I saw miles and miles of perfectly healthy cornfields. I saw flooded sections in amongst healthy sections. Complete mixture. Overall the vast majority seemed fine.

    In wet years, I bet the low lying regions flood and produce nothing useful. But in dry years, I bet the water pools down there and they produce the best crops, while the highland regions dry out and produce nothing.

    Your constant reports of food prices skyrocketing, always turning out to be wrong, are really getting old.

  2. dabba says:

    dashxdr is correct. good and poor areas across the corn belt. just like every year. some spots too much rain, some not enough. wet areas a bit more than normal. with average weather from here we will have an average crop, no bin buster no disaster. and i am still waiting for erics 20.00 soybeans. current price in nw iowa, 9.20. very good historically but not that hot because inputs are higher as well. at some point eric will be correct as demand increases are matching supply increases. mother nature will throw a knuckle ball in the future and we farmers will whiff.date: unknown! farmer dabba

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