“USDA is not restrained by second grade math rules”

Below are a bunch of comments from AgTalk (an agriculture message board).

A picture that sums up 2010 in Manitoba

christianh
Posted 9/9/2010 00:05 (#1352162)
Subject: A picture that sums up 2010 in Manitoba.
Ethelbert, Manitoba, Canada


its not a great corn year

mutt
Posted 9/8/2010 22:12 (#1351910)
Subject: I guess its not a great corn year
nw kansas

Crop scout call me and gave yield est. today and he is usually thinking we will hit the moon (up beat), but
he was so depressed I about died. When he is disappointed and calling for ave or less corn I get nervous because I'm conservative and try to be surprised. He even said it was most of the fields he was checking NOTHING GOING TO BREAK RECORDS and he covers all kinds of farms and farmers.


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nwksmilo
Posted 9/9/2010 07:54 (#1352356 - in reply to #1351910)
Subject: Re: I guess its not a great corn year
Colby, KS

I would have to agree with the summary "average or less". This year is going to remind us that 240 bushel irrigated and 150 bushel dryland corn is ABOVE AVERAGE.

I'm expecting
my irrigated to go 190-200 (which is excellent for me as my APH is 160. Finally have some ways to battle my nematodes.) Expecting dryland in the 80-120 range, with about 75% of it being 100-120.

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Posted 9/9/2010 08:11 (#1352379 - in reply to #1351910)
Subject: Re: I guess its not a great corn year
West Central, MO

Our crop scout's latest report confirmed what I was seeing when I went out to take stalks for nitrate tests.
Across the board we're looking at 0-50 bu/ac. This will make the 4th year in-a-row we've tried--and failed--at a corn crop.

Yield reports from around the country

eddiedry
Posted 9/3/2010 22:26 (#1345720)
Subject: Yield reports from around the country........................
Wheatley, Arkansas

From an e-mail today;

Revenna, MI

No tipping back on dry-land corn. Best crop we' ve ever had by far. Good thing we' ve learned not to trade the crop in our backyard. Fields we' ve done so far (in Michigan, which is two weeks earlier than we' ve ever harvested) yielding 175-180 bushels

near Bloomington 214 vs. 235 last year, near Hillsboro IL 190 same as last year. corn coming running 14.5 to 22% moisture.

Comments from farmers
running 20 to 40 bu. below last year. Corn on Corn seems to be much of the early Corn.

90 acres @190 bpa dry. 10 bpa better than last year. 24% moisture. Rolling ground planted April 12th.

Minonk ..70 ac yc on yc…175

30 ac corn on beans at 200

IN beans

WC IN: Fountain Co: 70 acres: 55 bpa avg

Kokomo, IN low 60's Expects later beans to be better than that

West Central IN: Carroll Co. Two 150 ac fields. One went 63 and the other 68. Above average by 3-5 bu/ac

Fountain Co. 80 acres 63 bu/ac. Close to or at a record and 5-7 bu above average.

S of Taylorville IL

Last year 230
Expecting 210
Getting 180

SE of champaign IL 180-210 same as last year

W of Farmer City 131 vs 200 year ago

E. Cent IN 9% moisture, yields in the high 60' s, about 4bpa better than average. Yield monitor running between 55-85bpa. Farmer said one of his best bean crops ever…thus far.

Keokuk, IA The fellow just picked twenty acres. Came out of the field 180 at 26% moisture, which converts to 156 bushels at 15% moisture. Test weight, at 26%, was 54 lbs, which at a dry weight of 15% moisture should pick up another 3.5 lbs TW

The farmer was happy, as he pegged it at 135 bu/acre. He had some 09' corn to blend, so he decided to pick a few acres early. 3” of rain in the county last night with more on the way tonight. With cool temperatures on the way it will be a while before any more reports roll in.

Halfway between Indy/Cincy, 30a went 10% moisture, yield near 66.5bpa. 3.1 maturity. Producer said yield was average to above average and noted green leaves and some green pods in the mix.

New Berlin, IL

170 bpa, 194bpa and 153bpa , dry

Not sure field sizes but comment on the 170bpa was 240 LY *not sure if the 240 LY was a dry or not*

Drown out spots

Compaction problem

Working ground too wet

Fungicides helped and grain much better where applied

Some diplodia but does not sound as bad as LY

IL

Western Ford/Eastern McLean corn: 114 bpa, 143 bpa, and 162 bpa. These yields come from a farmer who has farms on about every kind of ground that we have in this area (some rolling and some flat). (This guy would have had 180 to 195 bushel corn last year.)

IL

Monticello - 1st field (soil compaction issues) yielded 141 bpa, vs. 205 bpa last year.

Monticello - 2nd field (1 mile from 1st field, but with no compaction issues) yielded 201 bpa, vs 205 bpa last year

Montezuma IN (west central) 158 better than expected

Sidney IL 138, 141 LY 211-247

Deland IL (near Clinton) 105 moist dropped to 15 from 23 last week

first yield report from Iowa.

South of Oskaloosa----115 yield compared to 200 last year. 22-25 moisture.

East of Oskaloosa---150 yield compared to 210 last year.

Hiawatha/Sabetha KS

Yield reported
155 expected 160

Yield reported
165 expected 175 to 180

Yield reported
200 below expectation, last year 230

Adrian MO

Yield reported
120 expected 140. this field was planted early received heavy rain and had several low areas in the field that produced no corn...

Manchester OK

yield reported range from 65 to 90 bu/ac...in line with expectation ... overall average likely to be better than trend line for this area.

IL

Rantoul, IL (15 miles north of Champaign) - Field made 165 bpa, vs. 190 bpa last year.

Northern Champaign County - First 3 fields went 148 bpa, 175 bpa, and 195 bpa. Last year, all 3 fields were over 200 bpa.

White county IL

198 acres
155 vs 200+ last year

67 acres next to it 178 about the same as last year

Different hybrids

80 acres of corn harvested at
Owaneco, IL (near Taylorville) with an average yield of 212 bpa and 20% moisture

Illinois

Graymont — 180

Maroa — 150

Minier — 160

Wapella 185

Gallantin Co. — 180-185

Stark county IL (Peoria) Disappointing: Corn finished 170 bushels/acre. Harvested at 21-24% Planting conditions couldn't of been better. Just too much rain. The 2008 corn on the same farm made 206 bushels/ac. Hopefully the beans will yield as good as they look.

Stonington Ill just south of Decatur Ill

Finished 160 by house, first year corn with no fungicide.- 189 dry. Hearing corn/corn yielding
at least 20 bushels per acre less than first year corn.

Convington Ohio area

100 acres harvested at 17.0 MTS yielded 235 dry

Decatur County IN (halfway Indy/Cinci)

50% done and averaging about 190bpa, 10-15bpa below average. Moisture is averaging 16.5%. The area was dry and was 2” away from a good corn crop

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whitedirtfarmer
Posted 9/3/2010 22:45 (#1345749 - in reply to #1345720)
Subject: Re: Yield reports from around the country........................
southern illinois

Thanks Les, that is a lotta good info.
It seems to me there is more less than last year or a little below expectations in there. Bean yields sound pretty good though.


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Ron..NE ILL..10/48
Posted 9/4/2010 20:11 (#1346702 - in reply to #1345720)
Subject: RE: Yield reports from around the country........................
Chebanse, IL

I didn't take all that much math in HS, but
in order for IL to make that USDA mandated 180 bu/A, isn't someone in IL going to have to start coming up with some huge numbers to offset the little numbers thus far?


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GreySage
Posted 9/4/2010 20:31 (#1346728 - in reply to #1346702)
Subject: Government math.

USDA is not restrained by second grade math rules.

the USDA is going to hold onto 165 as long as possible


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Mizzou Tiger
Posted 9/9/2010 09:15 (#1352464 - in reply to #1352058)
Subject: Re: What if Friday is bullish?
SE IA-WC IL

Gut tells me that
the USDA is going to hold onto 165 as long as possible. While it may come down a bit, look at the crop ratings, not moving. They have no need to get aggressive until things get closer to year end. This wheat thing is real, no need to get people excited in corn yet.

As for reality, still think we are
NO HIGHER THAN 160 MAYBE LOWER, and the soy number might be there, but I see a lot of pods on the ground, several 2's and 3's instead of 3's and 4's, and fields are turning, might make the soybean number interesting later on.


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//()//()
Posted 9/9/2010 10:08 (#1352540 - in reply to #1352518)
Subject: Re: What if Friday is bullish?

In order to avoid appearing totally the buffoon,
UncleSam gonna hafta trim the fuzz off its previous heavy hairy guess. To salvage any credibility, the drunken goobermint might incline to more align with the more sobering independent estimates now. It is my opinion that absolutely any mere hint of USDA admission of the reality on the ground will be interpreted as very bullish and will be bought with both hands. Thinking that last night's thin trade stop flushing underneath is "all she wrote" for any meaningful pullback. In other words, "Go Get 'Em!"


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Mizzou Tiger
Posted 9/9/2010 11:32 (#1352626 - in reply to #1352585)
Subject: Re: What if Friday is bullish?
SE IA-WC IL

We also have
areas of high yielding potential that were never planted or planted to soybean. I do tend to agree, I expect a bearish surprise, USDA August number and total production number ISN'T GOING DOWN WITHOUT A FIGHT.


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roarintiger1
Posted 9/9/2010 12:42 (#1352700 - in reply to #1352633)
Subject: Re: What if Friday is bullish?
NW Ohio

I am also in the camp of
USDA "finding" more acres to offset the lower production numbers. IMO, the folks in charge at USDA WILL DO EVERYTHING THEY CAN TO KEEP A SHORT-TERM LID ON THIS POWDERKEG OF PRICES. "Finding" acres has been a tool they have used in the past and I expect they could do it again.

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garywi
Posted 9/9/2010 13:18 (#1352741 - in reply to #1352700)
Subject: Re: What if Friday is bullish?
franksville wi

The USDA held off last year forever before they came around to admit that a bin they claimed had 100,000 bu only had 92,000 because of bad test weight even though farmers were screaming it from october on and this is what scares me the most. If they raise acres it is kind of a joke because i can see numbers off for beans because guys don't report some of the double crop and late planted ones but they have had acreage reports since july for the corn on what we recorded with FSA and to change it now would seem kind of like a farse.

Will we see a 5 in front of corn tomorrow?



JohnDeereGreenWKY
Posted 9/9/2010 20:36 (#1353171 - in reply to #1352918)
Subject: Re: Will we see a 5 in front of corn tomorrow?

I fully expect the USDA to put out numbers that don't make sense LIKE THEY ALWAYS DO. (Personally I believe they do it to drive the market price down)


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Mizzou Tiger
Posted 9/9/2010 20:59 (#1353215 - in reply to #1353171)
Subject: Dont take it personal
SE IA-WC IL

The USDA, ie government is going to do anything it can to keep a cap on food inflation. You talk about a political nightmare, stale employment, generally poor economic policy, deflation on many consumer goods, falling dollar, higher taxes, mid-term, thoughts of 2012 and then pile on inflationary prices in food ONLY. WHAMMY.

Why get in a hurry, USDA can drag it out and hope for a hail mary of yield number in January. Otherwise commodity prices are off to the races. What will be interesting is, if grains stall here for a couple of months and oil starts to get some leg and gets above 80 maybe push 100 early next year......that will be interesting because I guarantee grains are going to take off when we start trying to buy acres.

The corn number isn't there, and I think the soybean number might surprise people in January too. A lot of people counted there beans before they dropped or went flat. Cotton will buy more acres, wheat is doing it. Corn carryout comes in low for sure, soya need acres to stay in balance.

O, and one more thing.
Even all the double dipper, dooms day guys are saying that 2011 will be better on the street. Hell a pull back now in grains until Dec or Jan is only giving us time to load up another powder keg on top of the two that are lit.

Let er eat!!!!!

corn yield cut

earnhart sil
Posted 9/10/2010 08:40 (#1353893)
Subject: corn yield cut
Pulaski county Il.

to 162.5 and and beans increased to 44.7


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spotlund
Posted 9/10/2010 08:43 (#1353899 - in reply to #1353893)
Subject: Re: corn yield cut
Markle, IN

Ending stock were down for both though Corn:
1312 to 1116 and Beans: 360 to 350


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//()//()
Posted 9/10/2010 08:54 (#1353913 - in reply to #1353897)
Subject: Re: corn yield cut

Hopefully, this link goes to the text version of the September 10 WASDE report:
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.txt

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Illinoisfan
Posted 9/10/2010 08:57 (#1353918 - in reply to #1353906)
Subject: Re: corn yield cut

I still don't buy the corn number. EVERYONE I'VE TALKED TO IS SEEING MAJOR REDUCTIONS compared to averages. 20% less seems to be the norm. The extended hot period during June and July really hurt this crop. (especially the hot nights)

When it is said and done,
I bet the number is mid to lower 150's for the average.

We started harvesting yesterday, and
it was an eye-opener, IN A NEGATIVE WAY.

My reaction: My favorite comment: “USDA is not restrained by second grade math rules.”

There is an INTENSE media campaign going on right now to cover the worsening global food situation. This campaign involves:

1) “… but there is no food crisis.” As in: “sure, people are rioting and dying over food prices in Africa… but there is no food crisis.” Or, “sure, Russia has banned exports until December 2011… but there is no food crisis.” Or, “Sure, world food prices are soaring… but there is no food crisis.” ETC…

2) COMPLETE media blackout of any news story bullish for agriculture. Worse Grasshoppers infestation in 30 years? Not a word about it. Heat decimating crops across the Midwest? Again, not a word about it. The worst epidemics of SDS since the disease was found in Iowa in 1994? Not… a… word…

3) Record breaking US supply. The nation's highest wheat yield ever. Record breaking soybean production. Etc…


Conclusion: Soaring prices, food riots, exports bans… looks like the 2010 food crisis is well underway.

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On another note, I did big update on TheFinalFraud.com. What I published 99% done, the last 1% I will do later today.

This entry was posted in Food_Crisis, News_Developments. Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to “USDA is not restrained by second grade math rules”

  1. sharonsj says:

    Thanks for all the valuable info. However, a lot depends on where you live. Here in PA there is plenty of corn. The average price is $3-3.50 a dozen and I've gotten it on sale for $2 a dozen. But other items in the supermarket are pretty expensive.

    I also talk to a friend in Wisconsin and she says the supermarket sales there are fabulous. I guess these stores buy a lot locally, whereas some of my supermarkets have too many things that are shipped in from China and South America. Last time I bought garlic is was from China and I was pretty steamed over that.

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