*****USDA Has Succeeded In Losing All Credibility*****

The USDA “finds” 300 million bushels of corn!

Fox Business reports that large U.S. corn stocks to cushion crop downturn.

(emphasis mine) [my comment]

Large U.S. corn stocks to cushion crop downturn
Published September 30, 2010
By Charles Abbott

WASHINGTON, (Reuters) -
The U.S. corn stockpile hit its largest level in four years as the autumn harvest opened in September, serving as a buffer against a smaller-than-expected crop that has driven prices to two-year highs.

The stockpile on Sept. 1 totaled 1.708 billion bushels, the government said Thursday, SURPASSING EXPECTATIONS BY 21 PERCENT OR 296 MILLION BUSHELS. [MAGIC! USDA has “found” 300 million bushels of corn!]

Corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell sharply after the report, closing below $5 a bushel for the first time in two weeks. Don Roose, analyst with U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa, called the figure "a bearish shocker" and
"a big cushion for a shortfall this year ... Now you can handle a lower yield."

The U.S. Agriculture Department forecasts a crop of 13.16 billion bushels for 2010, a record but smaller than it estimated earlier in the year. Earlier this month, it lowered its estimate of corn yields by 2.5 bushels an acre.

Early-harvest reports have indicated poorer yields than expected.

A USDA economist said
USDA designs its survey to count only old-crop corn in tallying the corn surplus.

The Des Moines register reports about Massacre in the pits!

Massacre in the pits!
Blog post by Dan Piller — dpiller@desmoine.gannett.com — October 1, 2010

Corn took its biggest one-day drop since April, falling 30 cents per bushel Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade to $4.65 for the December contract. Just a week ago corn reached a two-year high of $5.25 on worries that supplies this year would be tight.

the USDA yesterday increased its carryover of old corn stocks by 300 MILLION BUSHELS to 1.7 billion

Brad Parks, deputy director of the USDA' s statistics service, said
he was confident in the accuracy of the survey.

“We surveyed 2,300 farmers in Iowa from Sept. 1 through Sept. 14 and we asked each one twice, about their old crop storage,” Park said.

He added
“we were aware of the early planting and early harvest, so we knew going in that there would be the possibility of early corn on hand, so we made doubly sure that the count was accurate.”

Farmer reactions to the Magical 300 million bushel find

Now lets look at farmer reactions to the USDA' s 300 million bushel surprise, from talk.newagtalk.com.

the USDA is one of two things... Corrupt or Incompetent

Posted 10/1/2010 14:52 (#1380706)
Subject: OCT. REPORT or any usda report....................

After this fiasco october stocks report, WHY IN THE HELL WOULD A GRAIN FARMER EVER PARTICIPATE IN ANOTHER SURVEY? This is totally BULLSH!t. Reminds me of the Hillary Clinton 100k profit from the old days. To suddenly find 300 million bushels of corn in 90 days is slapping the farmers in the face. Screw them, I will never, ever participate in a survey and give them a chance to know my business again! … What other business owner in the US gives out private information other than us? It might take until December now before the minimum wage usda bean counters can figure out on their OWN that this corn crop sucks. 155 or less.


Posted 10/1/2010 15:01 (#1380713 - in reply to #1380706)
Subject: Re: OCT. REPORT or any usda report....................

I completely agree.
Total market manipulation.

They have done exactly what they wanted to do -
drive the market down to avoid paying huge subsidies from crop insurance.

They won't lower the yield in the October report either. They'll keep the market down and then finally publish the correct numbers in March after most people have sold this year's crop.

Anyone who thinks the USDA is a 100% legitimate organization NEEDS TO HAVE HIS HEAD EXAMINED.


Posted 10/1/2010 15:45 (#1380742 - in reply to #1380706)
Subject: Re: OCT. REPORT or any usda report....................

You are implying bureaucrats understand markets.

They don't.


10/1/2010 16:02 (#1380751 - in reply to #1380736)
Subject: Re: OCT. REPORT or any usda report....................

I have always said that I don't trust the USDA. Think of
how many surprises and "corrections" they have provided the market place with during the past 3 years alone. How about this as a question...

Why can't they do their due diligence and get things somewhat right the first time? I can understand being off by a small error, but 300 million bushels?

I don't even want to know how much of my tax money is going
to pay these fools.

IACommodities -
Watch how many times they lower the corn yield before this is all over. There is enough harvest done right now to have a very good feel for where things will come in. Instead, they will drift it lower and then finally publish some "surprise" or publish a report correction that sends the market into another frenzy one direction or another. Why publish the June 30th report at all? You just provided evidence for my statement that the USDA is one of two things... Corrupt or Incompetent. Thanks!


Mizzou Tiger
10/1/2010 16:11 (#1380757 - in reply to #1380736)
Never thought

that last year's crop was there. So the June report was the correction, not the mistake. Finding it again is now a mistake. Last years crop came out light, wet, and inefficient. I still believe that and still think that finding 300M again is a way to cover the fact that IA and IL will come in combined about 300-400M under what the USDA crop report said in September. So you add 300 then take it away and we keep final carry somewhere in the 1-1.1B range, just enough fudge to keep it ballpark, but not so much that we get down to 700-800M carry which would send things much much higher.

Agreeing with other comments, this wash was needed.
We will move a leg higher soon.

I do have one burning question, can someone please tell me
how they can segregate old crop from new crop. I guess I am ignorant, which is fine, been called worse, but I don't believe it. They didn't find 300M old crop, they found 300M of new crop. Until proven otherwise (and I don't mean because they told me so BS) I still think we get carryout down to 800ish. Two biggest corn states will come in 160 and 165ish for IL and IA respectively when its all said and done.


Al Schofield
10/1/2010 18:11 (#1380825 - in reply to #1380795)
Subject: Re: OCT. REPORT or any usda report....................

No kidding we are emotional, it is hard not to be when the flow of information only goes one way and the process of evaluating and developing models of the gathered information is done in complete secrecy with no transparency. This causes me to be a little skeptical of its reliability. …


10/1/2010 19:14 (#1380857 - in reply to #1380825)
Subject: Re: OCT. REPORT or any usda report....................

It is called CHEAP FOOD POLICY, and need to get re-elected.


10/1/2010 22:06 (#1381026 - in reply to #1380706)
Subject: Re: OCT. REPORT or any usda report....................

Kinda' outta my depth on this forum, but .... with the pace of corn harvest in central Illinois (almost completed a MONTH early)
it does not surprise me that this report shows 300 million increased stocks. Foolish thinking ?


10/1/2010 22:38 (#1381076 - in reply to #1380900)
Subject: Re: OCT. REPORT or any usda report....................

I didn't even go into my corn this year, too depressing, but if I had I would have missed guessed it. Way worse than I even thought it was. But even if I could have hit rite on the number it wouldn't affect the prices one bit (or any other farmer). But everytime USDA puts out a report it affects the prices (up or down). That's is why we expect them to be accurate!


Mizzou Tiger
10/1/2010 22:39 (#1381081 - in reply to #1381026)
Subject: WHAMMY

MAYBE.......................Seriously, when guys are saying they have never harvested corn in August, and did it this year.
Total bullsh$t that new crop is not in the old crop number. It will come full circle and it will hit like a hammer. YOU CAN'T HIDE A PIPELINE SUCKING AIR, and when it starts sucking air it will be in huge huge gasp.....

I will take my lumps on here while the market cycles,
we see $7 corn again, and if the soya harvest here yields less than 42 or SA has a big production scare we test all time highs.......


10/2/2010 00:43 (#1381214 - in reply to #1381026)
Subject: Re: OCT. REPORT or any usda report....................
Central, IL

New crop is not to be included in the report. Also grain in transport is not counted.
How they segregate new from old or bushels sitting on barges lined up on the banks of the Mississippi I dont know.

It is my opinion that
new bushels got added into the mix at some point. I also think USDA will lower the yield in upcoming report. By how much is the million dollar question.

Is the USDA sweating bullets and buying time? I believe so. Time will tell. …


Mizzou Tiger
10/2/2010 22:30 (#1382051 - in reply to #1381731)
Subject: NOT necessarily

It doesn't really matter were the bushels show up or disappear. Its still a fluid guessing game, supply comes in, demand goes out. Inventory tracking in many elevators consist of trucks in and trucks out. Have no idea if its old crop or new crop unless you ask. It is not really tracked all the well IF AT ALL, and at the end of the day you bin it by moisture or shipping spec, NOT IF ITS OLD CROP OR NEW CROP (yes I have had experience with this in the past).

Again, I might be wrong, but until someone lays out a procedure that details how they distinguish these bushels and how things are collected I am sticking to
the fact that the 2009 crop WAS LIGHTER THAN THE BOOKS SAY. 2010 is going to come in around 12.7 maybe 12.8. If we keep demand in soya and corn strong, the corn pipeline starts gasping. This will snowball into an acreage battle that will be one for the books. Wheat will buy back some acres, cotton will buy back a lot of acres if it holds. Soya has to keep what it has, and corn is going to need more, maybe much more. Now if wheat gets strong again and soya production becomes an issue in SA then its all time high testing time. Hell, if things align right and USDA plays dumb with this thing, COME MID TO LATE NEXT SUMMER IS WHEN WE SEE THINGS REALLY GET CRAZY. Generally speaking, the longer you keep the lid on, the higher the pressure till it goes BOOM. Remember, and I might be the only one here that thinks this, I believe 2011 we see thing on a worldwide economic scale improving. It might be slow and steady and seem stale (we have already started, but few want to see it yet). However, someday you turn around and look behind you and realize slow and steady just might win the race and then BOOM.

Grain markets are a huge FRICKING casino!

10/2/2010 08:18 (#1381367 - in reply to #1381158)
Subject: RE: it seems to me

It appears FUNDS liquidated 50 or 60,000 contracts of corn yesterday, per daily update from AG Resource!

Grain markets are a huge FRICKING casino!

Farmers are PUPPETS jerked around by, speculators,, multi-national grain Companys, input suppliers and an inept USDA. USA deserves to starve. Greed rules in this Country!

THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO REASON FOR CORN VALUES TO CHANGE 6% IN 1 DAY, short of a bomb destroying a large % of the supply.

Let's just forget about the grain market and head to the nearest pro or college football game or pop in a DVD - video game, do a little social net working, pop some pills, surf the net for some vacation spots this winter etc. Watch MSNBC & Fox report on some SOUND BITES.

What a fricking world of have baked idiots that we live with today!


10/2/2010 08:46 (#1381411 - in reply to #1381386)
Subject: Re: it seems to me

WHAT IS A REASONABLE PRICE or range in todays environment for grains????
Price discovery does not exist today with the CBOT and players in the market. Its a speculative game.


10/2/2010 09:20 (#1381452 - in reply to #1381411)
Subject: Re: it seems to me

Dusty One, You hit it right on.
The CBOT is nothing more than a casino anymore. We're caught in the middle and our livelyhood depends on the markets. How the heck do you make good marketing decisions in an enviroment like this.? Can't, Just can't. Impossible.


Pat H
10/2/2010 09:41 (#1381477 - in reply to #1381411)
Subject: Re: it seems to me
Cropsey, IL

Yep, all speculation. However, funds see commodities as a good thing and they'll be back to buy at the 'bargain' prices they've created. Remember when fidelity magellan's moves would move the whole market - they'd find some under valued stock and it would be over valued seconds after they started buying.
Does the usda report trump all the low yield reports in the funds' minds? We'll see.

I listened to an interview with one of the usda guys and he seemed to be oblivious to effects of their report - the numbers are the numbers.
What bugs me a little, is that I don't think I could report such a large change without a pretty detailed explanation. Don't these 300M bushels mean something isn't eating them that was supposed to be? Are the animal numbers not reflecting such a change? Was it really some sort of 'mistake' - bushels not accounted for correctly on previous reports - there can be good reasons for 'mistakes', but there should be some details or at least an analysis. To have integrity I would think the guys crunching the numbers would always want to be able to fully explain their numbers - not just 'well that's what the farmers and elevators said'. Is there potentially a problem with reporting? With new grain uses like ethanol, ddgs, exports - are they calling the wrong people to get numbers?

Bottom line
I would expect the usda reports to pretty much tell us what we already know (perhaps from a more credible source than advisor services with their own agendas). When it's different, something had to be overlooked and I would expect lots of explanation why everyone was wrong and they were right.




10/2/2010 11:41 (#1381575 - in reply to #1381477)
Subject: Re: it seems to me

Good post Pat,
I would also like an explanation. We will never get one though. I expect the next report will find those pesky 3 million acres that keep coming and going. Just seems like a lot of acres to misplace especially after they have been certified.


10/4/2010 15:50 (#1383967)
Subject: USDA - Robbing Peter to pay Paul

I think it is pretty obvious what
the USDA did with last week's amazing discovery of 300 million bushels of corn.

All this does
is give them some room to begin further adjusting the final corn yield.

I have not spoken to a single farmer who is sitting at last year's average.
Perhaps some are, but a 10% reduction is the minimum I have heard of. Keep in mind, that drops a 200 APH to 180.
We are probably going to end with a reduction from 10-20% of our APH.

You guys might not want to hear this, but a great deal of Illinois grows huge corn crops. These crops, over the past few years, have been 220-250 bushels per acre (field averages). These large yields have caused Illinois to show average yields of 170+, significantly helping to increase the national average.
This help is not going to be there this year, and Iowa and Indiana are also reporting disappointing corn yields.

If you start at 170 bpa and reduce it nationally by 10% (which I think is minimum), you quickly get to 153 -- pretty simple math.

What if that reduction is 12%? - 149.6

What if it is 15%? - 139.4

That 300 million is not going to keep this carry out from dropping below 1 billion.
The USDA will lie for awhile to keep the stocks safe, but in the end, the truth will come out.



10/4/2010 19:14 (#1384046 - in reply to #1383967)
"record harvest pace"....if true?

seems hard to correlate to "record" or high yields logistically thinking?

not too mention one of the alleged "utopia" like, pretty large areas was flooded just 2 weeks ago.


10/4/2010 19:26 (#1384057 - in reply to #1384024)
Subject: Re: USDA - Robbing Peter to pay Paul

GONZO..........yield is spelled YIELD. there goes your credibility.
Minnesota, Iowa are both reporting just 'average to below average yields'. National average 155 at best.


10/4/2010 20:13 (#1384090 - in reply to #1384073)
Subject: Re: USDA - Robbing Peter to pay Paul

We will finish with harvest this week.
We usually finish sometime between mid November to mid December. Everyone in a 100 mile radius seems to be the same way. The sad thing is that we have been rained out quite a bit, and we are still going to finish this early. Quite a few farmers are already done harvesting. Our eleveators might be in trouble. They never thought they would have any problems filling contracts. I am very close to a terminal elevator, and they are very slow.


10/4/2010 21:15 (#1384183 - in reply to #1384024)
Subject: Re: USDA - Robbing Peter to pay Paul

Ok... Let's look at some production numbers from 2009
before we just throw out random thoughts like Minnesota and Nebraska will save the day.

IL: 2,065,000,000 (Yield 175)
IA: 2,438,800,000 (Yield 182)
IN: 933,660,000 (Yield 171)

MN: 1,251,250,000 (Yield 175)
NE: 1,575,300,000 (Yield 178)

MN and NE combine to grow about 1/2 of what the "I" states grow, so
even if MN and NE hold the huge yields that they had last year (which I strongly doubt will happen due to this summer's intense heat), you will see a large decrease in the national yield. Are you MN and NE guys going to come out and add 20% to those state averages? I don't think so.

IL, IA, and IN are all preaching poor corn. ND,KS, and OH are the next biggest producers, and they are also stating the yield is not there.

If you actually "farm" you would understand. The corn did not like 3 things that it saw this year:
Excessive Water
Lack of N due to excessive water
Excessive Heat (especially at night)

The yield counts that were taken in July shrunk immensely due to the rapid dry-down of the corn. 200 bpa corn turned out to be 160 bpa if not worse.

These problems were seen over a "great" deal of the corn belt. Last year, they were mostly non-existent.

IF THE USDA WERE HONEST, they would come out right now with a number in the low 150's and get it over with.

how you find 300 million bushels

10/2/2010 20:47 (#1381919 - in reply to #1381790)
Subject: Re: I aint to sharp about that there corn price thing???

I'm still trying to figure out how u find 300 million bushels


10/2/2010 22:40 (#1382063 - in reply to #1381919)
Subject: Re: I aint to sharp about that there corn price thing???
Central Indiana

You simply invent them! Or by the government reasoning they found bushels they didn't know were there. Sooooo, is it possible that they think there are bushels where there's not? Kind of makes the whole thing useless, doesn't it? Unless the goal is to manipulate the market. But they wouldn't do that, as it would be kind of like treason. I feel better now.

USDA out of touch with reality

Posted 10/1/2010 22:52 (#1381107)
Subject: USDA out of touch with reality,

In Sep 30 report,
USDA says IL only lost 35,000 wheat acres from what was planted for the 2010 crop. 2009 IL wheat crop lost 30,000 from what was planted. Only 5,000 more acres not harvested in 10 vs 09.

How in the world could they screw up something as simple as this?

I would like to see the failed wheat acre reports at the county FSA offices and crop insurance company records.



Posted 10/2/2010 07:04 (#1381304 - in reply to #1381164)
Subject: Re: USDA out of touch with reality,

They specialize doing it now days
they also magically find a couple million of corn stored away in bin or warehouse somewhere in the middle of nowhere


Posted 10/2/2010 07:32 (#1381327 - in reply to #1381319)
Subject: Re: USDA out of touch with reality,

Mo numbers show 50,000 loss in wheat acres for 2009.
90,000 less in 2010.

There is no way the IL number is right, I can come up with about a 1000 acres destroyed and not have to get very far from home. Last year in the same area none got destroyed.


Posted 10/2/2010 07:44 (#1381338 - in reply to #1381327)
Subject: Re: USDA out of touch with reality,
sw corner ia.

usda did not screw up..
they needed those numbers to be what they reported so they did. This is what they always do. They know nobody comes back a year later with the final proof and makes a big deal out of it.


Posted 10/2/2010 23:18 (#1382134 - in reply to #1381107)
Subject: RE: USDA out of touch with reality,
Lapel, In



Posted 10/3/2010 02:28 (#1382293 - in reply to #1382276)
Subject: Re: USDA out of touch with reality,
Lapel, In

Exactly my point.
Gone from incredible to uncredible. lol.


Posted 10/3/2010 09:05 (#1382423 - in reply to #1382276)
Subject: Re: USDA out of touch with reality,

I thought USDA was wrong on their June report, from the way things look, guess I was right.

My point is
if they can't get something as simple as planted vs harvested acres of SRW in IL correct, how accurate is the rest of the information?

In the last 4 years of planted vs harvested acres of SRW 10/11 had the smallest difference in planted vs harvested acres.
Kind of hard to believe.


Mainstream media reporting widespread skepticism of USDA numbers

Fox Business reports that the 'found' 300 million bushels is likely the early harvest that hitting us.

Traders had expected Sept. 1 corn stocks of 1.412 billion bushels, saying an early harvest might swell the supply slightly. …

"It will not be as big a surprise as you think that we 'found' 300 million bushels of corn on the stock (report)," ABNAmro analyst Charlie Sernatinger said. "This is likely the early harvest that hit us."

Thanks to an early planting season, the corn crop matured earlier than usual. …

The Des Moines register reports about skepticism among the trade about the USDA numbers.

Des Moines commodity broker Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage reflected some SKEPTICISM among the trade about the USDA numbers, saying “normally by the 1st of September there is little corn harvested, but this year there was a lot of corn harvested in August and the trade is assuming that some of the new crop corn was included in this report and that skewed the numbers.”

Sudden changes in USDA supply and production estimates traditionally elicit skepticism from farmers and traders who suspect the government might use the numbers to manipulate the markets.

In western Iowa, Elimar Sudman of Walnut said
“I' m not sure I trust those USDA numbers. We' ll find out in January when we see the final results.”

Sudman said that
corn yields in his area are off somewhat from last year due to the heavy rains in July.

“It' s like a house plant,” Sudman said.
“When you give it too much water, it turns yellow. Corn is the same.”


The Grain Report
By Tim Hannagan
01 October 2010 @ 12:13 pm BST

SURPRISE......... Thursday brought us two reports for the grains to trade off. … Then there was the corn. It was a real shocker at 1.708 b.b. only 35 m.b. over a year ago, but 301 m.b. over the average pre-report trade guess and 219 m.b. over the highest pre-report guess on a range of 1.350 to 1.489. NO ONE BELIEVES THE GOVERNMENT FOUND 301 M.B. LAYING AROUND IN WAREHOUSES STUMBLED ACROSS. In the old days back in the 80s when the government owned the grain and stored 3 to 4b.b. for a rainy day. They would have quarterly reports that will say whoops, we lost 200 m.b. of beans and whoops we found 300 m.b. of corn over there. The governments out of the grain business to save billions of dollars in storage and interest costs. Here's what the trade thinks happened. Last year was one of the coldest and wettest grain seasons in history. It was so wet during the planting season there was fear corn and beans acres would go unplanted. At harvest time it was so wet and cold fear was we would never get the crops harvested. The quarterly report and monthly reports looked as if we had no grain as it was still in the fields. The harvest was the latest on record. THIS YEAR IS THE OPPOSITE. We were generally dry and hot. We had a record early planting pace and harvest got underway earlier than ever. The trade believes that the USDA is including early harvested corn from the southern Delta into its quarterly inventory. When normally they wouldn't. The reality here is if added to this report. It's not added to the next. It's not discovered corn, but reshuffled inventory.

My reaction: The explanation to 300 million bushels of corn is that the USDA is including early harvested corn from the southern Delta into its quarterly inventory.

For the record, the early harvest this year is the reason prices didn' t reach panic level, despite the missing supply from last year' s “record harvest”. Because the 2010 harvest came in more than a month early, the 2009 crop only had to last less than eleven months, which it didn' t quite managed to do. Make no mistake, the US was running short at the end of this summer, as evident in the soaring prices since June.

However, while it did buy the USDA a little time, this year' s smaller, earlier harvest did not push back the food crisis until next year. The shortages this summer badly damaged, if not destroyed, the USDA' s credibility, which dramatically alters dynamics in agricultural markets.

Prices aren' t going back down. The supply and demand picture is too skewed in favor of farmers, and they know it (look at comments above). A significant portion of the 2009/2010 harvest is going to be held back by farmers waiting for the higher prices, which they know are coming. Similarly, end users also know that the USDA' s numbers aren' t there, and will be very aggressive buyers in the face of future higher prices. With its credibility in tatters and the supply/demand completely out of balance (with everyone knowing it too), the USDA has lost control of the market.

The USDA's magical 300 million bushel find is proof of how close we are to the end. That USDA would sacrifice what little credibility it has left is evidence of desperation.

Agricultural commodities are heading higher and soon. The 2010 food crisis, which began with the shortages this summer, will continue to intensify going into the end of the year, leading to panic and chaos.

This entry was posted in Food_Crisis, News_Developments. Bookmark the permalink.

5 Responses to *****USDA Has Succeeded In Losing All Credibility*****

  1. Gail says:

    I tried googling pumpkin because there was a shortage in 2009. There are all sorts of reports saying the shortage is over, but as far as I can tell, they are based on predictions, not a real tally of the harvest.

  2. So if I understand correctly, the USDA pulled a Jesus. They magically found grain where first there was none.

  3. Kathy says:

    One possibility is that early harvested corn is being mixed with unsold corn from last year. The corn from last year was often infected with fungus which produce mycotoxins. Since they cannot sell a batch that has too high a level of mycotoxin one way for a farmer to sell bad corn is to mix it with good. There may not have been enough good corn last year to mix with the really bad stuff (you can't even sell it to ethanol factories as they depend on selling the residue - dried distiller grains - for feed and the process kills the fungus but they mycotoxins are still there - and in fact concentrated - animals fed this fail to thrive or get sick). If this is being done and incorrectly reported then it will make this year's harvest that much smaller.

    By the way peanut farmers do the same thing with peanuts that have aflatoxin - they mix good with bad so that the ppms are acceptable even though it probably means that all your peanut butter has some and thus you get the same dose as if you ate some without and some with high ppms.

  4. dabba says:

    eric, a larger than normal amount of this crop has been priced by farmers given the rise in price since june.it may be a record forward priced amount. what little the farmer has left will be tightly held to see where this thing goes and to boost the average of earlier sales. some of those sales are now almost 2.00/bushel below todays price. farmer dabba

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