Anon, I think you need to write your own book. At...

2008-12-07T01:46:23.438-08:00

Anon, I think you need to write your own book. At least your own blog, or even just a column on someone else's blog. You are far more "forward thinking" than myself. Compared to your display, I'm a "scatterbrain."

I lost most of my portfolio 4 and 6 years ago. I just recently lost my job. It may well be too late for myself. However, I would like to pass on your "thinking" to my progeny, some of which are just now graduating from college, getting married and entering the workforce...

Look forward to vacation spots. So far my conting...

2008-12-07T00:53:41.094-08:00

Look forward to vacation spots. So far my contingency plans are set up thus.

Stage one "bug in": Accumulate staples with long shelf lifes, namely canned goods, rice, pasta, sugar etc. Along with that buy other staples like textiles, OTC meds, batteries, personal hygiene items, shoes anything that I will use that wont go bad. Security items like weapons, alarms burglary prevention would be good investments as well If local conditions get bad (lose job, social conditions get nasty) then I go to stage two.

Stage two bug out via 5th wheel: I take everything I can hold in 5th wheel, rent out my pad go where employment and social conditions aren't so bad somewhere in AMERICA,finding work as I go. Now if things get really crappy domestically then....

STAGE 3 bug out internationally: Now my favorite place would be Australia because it's a nice commodity based economy without too much debt, its an easily defendable island with a fairly homogenous people and a low population base (less mouths to feed). It also has the Perth Mint which is a good place to store your un-allocated bullion (doubles as an off-shore foreign account.) If Australia wants to participate in "international intrigues" ie. war. Then my last retreat is.

Stage 4: motorsailor to some low/no populated island with tradewinds that will blow away any traces of thermonuclear exchanges.

Use the motorsailor to transport goods to or between island chains for a "job" and practice minimal survival standards.

That is my total SHTF scenarios. Current considerations would be to purchase goods with long shelf lifes NOW in the current deflationary environment (look up a free online book called the "alpha strategy" for ideas even if it is a little dated). Then buy gold/foreign currencies in a 50/50 fashion with currency diversification in Swiss Franc (stability), Yen (undervalued, carry trade), USD (its your native currency and you can always use it to pay off fixed debt ie.mortgages) and a resource currency (either Canadian or Australian, I like Aussies because I feel its undervalued and its part of my exit strategy). If you want to wait a few years, equities after a good correction (dow/gold same price,PEs in the 5-10s range with 5-10 percent dividends the norm). Once this happens, take YOUR living allocation percentages in various asset classes and use that to determine your asset allocations and do it with dividend yielding ETfs or make your own portfolios with common stocks that are the leaders in their class and have juicy dividends which you re-invest into more shares. Hopefully if you time this right, you could have a portfolio of stocks/ETFs which would reflect your actual allocations in your lifestyle and the dividends alone would provide your income in retirement meaning you would never have to sell, and if they were ETFs you could put the portfolio on auto pilot.

The companies in their respective classes just need to stay profitable. For instance if you have a REIT that yields the equivalent of your housing costs then property prices or rent go up, your REIT should reflect that price move, if they go down, then down too they would go . Want to hedge medical costs? Since drugs are a large part of care, buy a drug ETF. Like to travel? Energy is a large part of that so buy the ETF/energy companies.

It's like Will Rogers said "Iam concerned about the return OF my investment more than the return ON my investment" and this strategy I think would preserve your purchasing power.

The scary thing is that people seem utterly oblivi...

2008-12-06T08:17:42.607-08:00

The scary thing is that people seem utterly oblivious to what's coming. In fact, I've even had people tell me they'd rather not think about it!

Yesterday I went to Sam's Club - 65 miles away - to stock up on bulk foods like flour, dry beans and olive oil. If nothing else, buying the stuff today will enable to stay a little ahead of inflation.

I was amazed and annoyed, however, by hordes of people crowding the roads, restaurants and stores. Apparently the programming to buy, buy, buy during the Christmas season is irresistible. I wanted to stop in a restaurant for a bite to eat and there was a 10 minute wait, which has never been the case before! So I went home hungry. Don't these people realize we're heading into the mother of all "recessions"?

So my fear is that if an acute crisis erupts - gasoline shortage, natural gas shortage, food shortage, bank holiday, or other similar crises - these people are going to be caught totally unaware. Then how will they react? Frightening.

Dave
http://daveeriqat.wordpress.com/

Comments on Market Skeptics: US in Early Stages of Disintegration

Anon, I think you need to write your own book. At...

Look forward to vacation spots. So far my conting...

The scary thing is that people seem utterly oblivi...